Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 28th January 2021

Yesterday I said that..."I don't see much between Perfect Rose & Vivency for the win...I think I'd rather back her (Vivency) at 10/3 than the fav (Perfect Rose) at sub-2/1..." Vivency got up right on the line to deny perfect Rose by the shortest of short heads to land me a 10/3 winner, whilst the Exacta paid almost 8/1 for those of you who jumped on that too.

Things don't always go to plan, so it was nice to take another few quid from the layers today.

Thursday is almost upon us and the feature of the day is access to Instant Expert for ALL races, including our races of the day, which are...

  • 12.53 Fakenham
  • 2.20 Gowran Park
  • 3.10 Wetherby
  • 6.30 Newcastle

And I'm going to use the place element of Instant Expert to assess whether a couple of expected non-favs from Thursday would be likely to make the frame in what would appear to be favoured conditions, starting with a runner in the 1.55 Fakenham...

Aintree My Dream is now what we'd call a veteran at 11 yrs old, but he's not the old boy in this race that also features a pair of 12 yr olds. He's also not showing any real signs of slowing down, despite having lost each of his last 15 races (12 over fences). I say he hasn't slowed down, because he has finished in the first three home in eight of his last ten starts and has been the runner-up in his last two outings.

Beaten by just half a length over 2m4f on heavy on the 1st December, he then went down by a length and a quarter over the same trip but on soft ground at Sandown. Trainer Milton Harris is three from five over the past week, so he seems to have his string well tuned and in the shape of the wily/experienced paddy Brennan, we have a jockey who has made the frame in 18 of 35 starts over the past month  :very handy when we're looking for a placer.

Aintree My Dream's career record includes the following, based on placed finishes...

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...and these are tremendous figures for a horse that has raced 29 times in total, making the frame on 14 occasions (48.3%). In addition to the above, his place record also includes of relevance here...

  • 11/21 with no headgear , 9/22 when not the fav , 9/16 sent off at 6/1 and shorter
  • 9/12 off a mark of 121-130 , 9/16 in fields of 8-11 runners , 7/18 going left handed
  • 6/12 in hcp chases , 5/12 after 16-30 days rest , 4/7 on heavy ground
  • 4/6 under today's jockey and 3/4 in January.

So, I'd say he has conditions to suit. My main reservation at this point is the fact that he's a confirmed hold up horse making his first ever visit to Fakenham, where hold up horses can (and do) win their share of races, but from a larger number of runners than other racing styles, as seen here...

Clearly 2 from 12 from leaders is far better than 2 from 26 held up, but I did mention the skewing of sample sizes yesterday regarding what is a true hold up horse as opposed to a slow one, so whilst I have reservations, I wouldn't discount the horse just yet. Something to think about, whilst I...

...take a look at one in the 6.00 Newcastle...

Boma Green is far less experienced/exposed than our first highlighted runner of course, as this 4 yr old has only raced seven times to date. he has yet to win, but has made the frame five times (71.4%) so far. He was a modest third at this class/track three starts ago when finishing third over 7 furlongs, beaten by 7.25 lengths, although the runner-up has since won another C5, 7f contest, albeit on soft ground.

Boma Green then stepped up in both Class and trip (C4, 1m) for a decent runner-up finish at Kempton when only beaten by a length and a quarter, so much more was expected of him in his last run (New Year's Eve) at Lingfield when sent off the 7/2 second favourite. Sadly he could only finish 8th of 11, beaten by nearly five lengths having weakened badly in the last of the seven furlongs off a mark of 76. He's down a class and a pound here, but back up a furlong.

Both his yard and his jockey have good records here at Newcastle, although they rarely team up here :  this will be just the fourth occasion.

We know that this horse has placed in 5 of 7 starts and they include...

He has placed in 2 of 4 A/W starts with his 3/3 on the Flat suggesting he's better on grass. He's 4 from 6 for this yard, 4 from 4 on a straight run and 3 from 4 at 16-30 days rest. He has also made the frame in 5 of 6 starts with no headgear, but wears cheekpieces for the first time here.

He's not one to lead if he can help it but does like to race prominently, which is a tactic that usually works well here...

...and whilst that looks good for him, he isn't particularly well drawn in stall five and there's no real pace in the race, meaning he might have to take it on for himself or suffer in a slowly run tactical affair. Here are the draw stats....

Summary

Aintree My Dream is currently 3rd fav at 6/1, I've got him as second best and roughly as far away from the winner as he is clear of the my third ranked horse. I agree with the market that Golden Whisky is the most likely winner and whilst 6/1 about Aintree My Dream is too short for me personally from an E/W perspective, I certainly expect him to make the frame. It might be worth putting a place bet on the exchanges or doing the forecast. Shanacoole Prince is interesting as a double-digit odds E/W punt, as he's better than his last run suggests.

Boma Green is also a 6/1 third fav right now, but he's not for me. I don't think the race is going to pan out as he'd like, I expect it might become a tactical affair and he will possibly get run out of it. There are two that do interest me for making the frame at decent odds, Jewel Maker and Traveller, but I'll be leaving Boma Green alone.

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