Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 28th July 2021

Wednesday’s free feature of the day is the Trainer Statistics Report. This report gives you the low down on how trainers are performing, using a wide range of metrics, over both 14 days and 30 days. This data can be compared to 1 year performance, also available in the report, to check if a trainer is performing better or worse than average. There is also the option to check trainer performance at tracks where they have engagements either today or tomorrow, to examine courses where they might be sending their best chances of winners. This data is available for both the past year and past five years.

The free races for free registered users on Wednesday are:

2.35 Perth
3.10 Perth
3.20 Redcar
5.10 Galway
6.15 Galway

I’m a flat bettor through and through so the only one of those races that is going to appeal to me is the race at Redcar. It’s a 6f sprint handicap open to 3yo+ and there are fifteen runners so many bookies will be paying four places on each way bets (one is even paying five places).

Something I have noticed this season at Redcar is that on the straight course the far side rail has seemed much more of an advantage than usual. In previous years they would generally come up the centre of the course on most going types but this year they have gone centre to far side with those drawn lower generally having an advantage. Hopefully I can now prove this with some data!


In the majority of bigger field races on the straight course in recent years low and middle have enjoyed an advantage with PRB figures of 0.54 and 0.52 respectively but the data backs up what my eyes have told me this year – the low draw bias has increased with low drawn runners generating a PRB of 0.64 now – that’s a huge bias for a straight course and isn’t a million miles off the data you’d see at Chester for the same distances.

The market doesn’t seem to be taking into account this shift in bias. Low draws did have an A/E of 0.97 from 2009 to 2020 and that has gone up to 1.52 this year. There is obviously a smaller sample size looking only at races this year but we are seeing exactly what is going on when we watch a race – the runners that get the far side rail are outperforming their rivals.

Narrowing things down further to looking solely at sprint distances, stall 1 has a pretty incredible record of 3 wins and 5 places from 8 runs.

The heat map above is made up of data from 5f and 6f races this season in bigger field sizes and it’s interesting to note that despite the far side rail becoming an increasingly crowded part of the course, those coming from the rear or mid division (when drawn low) and still performing extremely well.

It’s worth noting that the leader from high stat is based on just the one run and is unlikely to be repeated when more data is gathered.

Given the data above I’m going to back whichever low drawn runner makes appeal in this, so here are the lowest drawn six runners.

Avior Star

Beat just one home last time out over this trip at Ayr on fast ground. Had previously run third on good to soft and overall his best form does seem to have come on ground with more cut in than this (likely to be good to firm here). He’s fairly interesting on his softer ground form but makes very limited appeal on fast ground.

Arfinn Rose

Has faced 53 rivals in five career runs and has so far only beaten three of them home. He’s now rated just 39 and isn’t even running up to that rating yet he runs of 46 here because he’s out of the handicap. Headgear now tried and all hopes will be on that working a miracle.

Must Be An Angel

Yet to win but has finished runner up in four out of 19 starts. She’s only raced on turf four times in total with all four runs coming on ground with the word soft in the going description. The 2nd place at Ayr on penultimate start on good to soft was fairly moderate form and then she was disappointing last time out at Wolverhampton in first time cheekpieces. She’d previously run well over that course and distance so the headgear was probably to blame (left off here). This isn’t the best race so a chance on that Ayr run but has to prove it on faster going and lack of win to date is slightly concerning.

Charlemaine

Hasn’t won for two years and he’s dropped 19lbs in the rating since then. He showed a bit more last time out over 5f here on fast ground, 9th of 13 but only beaten 4.5 lengths. He was drawn in stall 15 that day which I’ve already proved would have been a big disadvantage and the way he stayed on late suggested this step up in trip would be a big help, but the way he was tailed off early is a concern. Cheekpieces might perk him up but he hasn’t run well in them previously, has won in blinkers though so headgear can work on this horse.

Daysaq

Yet to win in 14 runs but he’s been knocking on the door on a couple of occasions this season. He was runner up on fast ground over this trip at Nottingham in a weak race, when getting the run of the race and was an eyecatcher last time out at Wolverhampton when well backed and not getting a clear run. He’s a big contender on that last run but many of his best efforts have come at Wolverhamapton and it’s not guaranteed he is quite as good on turf.

Oh So Hot

Lightly raced 3yo who has run well in all three starts for Adrian Nicholls this season, all over further. She was beaten just a head over an extended mile at Hamilton (race has worked out okay), didn’t quite get home when 4th over 9f at that same venue next time (race worked out well) and then was 2nd of 13 on her most recent start, dropped back to 7f at Ayr, beaten less than a length. The 3rd and 6th have both come out and won since giving Oh So Hot’s form a really solid look. She's clearly in form and open to more improvement.

Summary

The above runners should have an advantage and it seems pretty clear that in a very moderate race Oh So Hot brings a much stronger level of form into this. You can question how she was able to run so well over much stiffer tests if she’s going to be suited by this drop back to 6f but she was one of the last off the bridle over 7f last time and had few problems getting an early lead that day. Unless the drop back in trip is a massive negative she should be up to winning this.

Of the remainder Charlemaine is likely to be a bit overlooked by the bookies. The extra furlong and lower draw should be in his favour compared to last time and if the cheekpieces don’t have a negative effect he could be the one who follows Oh So Hot home, or takes advantage if the trip is too sharp for Oh So Hot.

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3 replies
  1. 10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards
  2. Rambler
    Rambler says:

    You have picked a tricky race here Sam. However very good write up and angles chosen. A lottery but you have made it less so. Thanks Bob S.

    Reply
  3. samdarby
    samdarby says:

    Thanks to all the Redcar jockeys for deciding to go up the middle today! Research out the window!

    Reply

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