Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 28th September 2021

The Shortlist is a simple and usually brief report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both the current and the next day's racing and here's how it looks for Tuesday...

This information is FREE to ALL readers every Tuesday, irrespective of subscription status, but Gold members get this every day, of course. We also open up a selection of free races each day to non-Gold subscribers and for this Tuesday, they are...

  • 1.15 Cork
  • 2.53 Worcester
  • 5.10 Cork
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

We don't often get many perfect 15's on The Shortlist and we must stress that the report isn't a list of recommended bets, but more of a way in to a race with "one in mind". 15s don't always win and are often overbet, but it would be rude to ignore this pair today, so in time order we'll start with Blue Sans, who runs in the 3.28 Worcester, a 9-runner, Class 4, handicap hurdle for 3yo+ horses over 2m4½f (after a 108 yards rails adjustment) on good ground...

Blue Sans is a 6 yr old mare who finished 103 in three bumpers followed by 2121 over hurdles including a win on handicap debut last time out over this class, course and distance. She led from before 2 out, stayed on well and was more comfortable than a length and a quarter might suggest. She's only up 3lbs here and would be expected to give another good account of herself, especially with the following trainer/jockey stats...

She had a perfect score on The Shortlist and we can translate that into numbers via Instant Expert...

From above her results are 132121 on Good ground, 2121 at Class 4, 21 here at Worcester, 211 around today's trip and 132131 in fields of 3-11 runners. In addition to these excellent numbers, she has also finished 1211 under today's jockey, 132131 going left handed, 32121 with a tongue tie, 32121 as a 6 yr old and she's 1 from 1 in cheekpieces and 1 from 1 in handicaps.

She likes to race prominently and whilst that's not the perfect scenario here at Worcester, where leaders are favoured...

...those racing prominently win virtually their fair share of races and certainly make the frame more often than any other running style, so she should have a devcent chance of being in the first three home here.

*

Let Me Be goes off almost an hour later in the 4.20 Ayr in a 5-runner, Class 4, soft ground flat handicap for 3yo+ horses over 1m7f that might take some getting...

This 5 yr old gelding shouldn't have any issues with the trip/ground having started his career almost two years by landing back to back soft ground bumpers. Since then he's had 14 Flat races at trips ranging from 1m1f all the way up to a win at 2m2f and he's 6 from 11 at 1m6f and beyond. His record this season reads 1118112183, but he was only beaten by 2.5 lengths last time out. That was also here at Ayr, but over a trip 2.5f further than today and on much quicker ground than he'd prefer. he also drops in class here from that run and has been eased a pound by the assessor, all of which should help the cause.

Another positive is the fact that he's a son of Gale Force Ten, who has the following stats of interest...

As with the previous runner we looked at, Let Me Be had a perfect score on The Shortlist and  so once again, we can translate that into numbers via Instant Expert...

With regards to form/finishing positions in flat handicaps, he is 2 from 2 on soft, 1218 at Class 4, 13 at Ayr, 21111 around this trip, 111213 in fields of 4-8 runners, 112183 under today's jockey, 2181113 going left handed and 1 from 1 over course and distance. That win over C&D came back in June when he led early before settling into a prominent position and he has tended to feature prominently in many of his races this season. We don't have enough data on 5-runner soft ground races over this track and trip to say whether racing prominently is a good tactic here, but it hasn't harmed him so far and more historically...

...those racing prominently have fared well enough. I expanded my parameters to give me a bigger sample size, of course. I've had to apply similar "loosening" on the draw stats too, but based on the expanded criteria, his draw in stall 4 seems OK too...

...but as you know, there's the thick end of two miles on soft ground to run and being drawn 15 to 20 feet from the rail really shouldn't matter. Had it been a lightening fast 5f around a bend, that's a different story, but I believe the draw becomes less of an issue in a small field over a long trip.

Summary

A score of 15 on The Shortlist report doesn't mean you rush out and back them blindly, it's merely a signal that they've got to be worth a second, closer look. As it happens, I like the chances of both Blue Sans and Let Me Be for Tuesday.

Blue Sans is currently the 3/1 second favourite at Worcester (3.30pm with the only bookie showing a price, Hills) and whist that's not massively generous, I think it's a fair offer that I'll accept. I'd imagine/expect the danger to come from I'm So Busy (4/1) and Cremant (6/1). I'm not so taken by Translink as a 9/4 fav, even if he did win LTO. If anything here, Envol de la Cour would be of more interest as an E/W bet at 14's.

As for Let Me Be, it's a similar story as he's the 5/2 second fav. Again, that's more fair than generous and I think the fav Haveyoumissedme might be a little short at 7/4 carrying a 6lb penalty and stepping up in both class and trip after only getting up by a short head LTO. He's probably the danger horse to my selection if he gets the extra 3f which is by no means guaranteed, although the 7/1 outsider Justified is no mug and definitely stays the trip. An ideal result for me would be a Let Me Be/Justified 1-2.

 

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