Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 29th December 2021

Wednesday's free Geegeez Gold feature is the Trainer Stats report, which is in fact four reports in one, containing information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to this excellent report, we also have the following five FREE races for you...

  • 1.17 Kelso
  • 1.45 Leopardstown
  • 2.05 Limerick
  • 2.27 Kelso
  • 2.40 Limerick

My fairly stringent criteria for the Trainer Stats report haven't given me much of note, so I'm going to tackle the first of our free races. It might only have seven runners, but it looks a competitive affair where you could easily make a case for at least four or five of them. The ground is going to be soft (at best) for this Class 3, 4yo+, Handicap Chase over a left handed 2m1½f, where they'll tackle a dozen fences in pursuit of the £7,407 prize awarded to the winner of the 1.17 Kelso...

The King of May has 2 wins and 2 places from 9 over fences and probably needed the run when last of 6, beaten by 20 lengths at Musselburgh a couple of moinths back coming off a 175-day layoff. He's had a wind op and is re-united with his favoured jockey here.

Slanelough won back to back chases at Ayr/Perth in April/May prior to a 5 month break. Since returning, he is 322, going down by just 5, 2 and 4 lengths respectively. Now off the same mark as his recent runner-up finish, should be involved here.

Cedar Hill has a great record here at Kelso and has three wins and two places over C&D from five attempts over fences. he gets on well with his jockey who rides this course well, but he would probably prefer the ground to be a bit firmer.

Zolfo won four in a row in a two-month purple patch from mid-November '19 to mid-January '20 moving his official mark from 108 to 130 in the process and he has sadly toiled since, finishing P74P08 in six runs. His mark has dropped accordingly down to a very workable 113, but he's up in class here and bang out of form.

Lucky Flight has raced better over hurdles than fences and his jumping of the larger obstacles has tended to let him down, even if he did win on his chasing debut 16 months ago. Since then he's lost eight in a row and was beaten by 22 lengths as 4th of 5 last time out. I can't see how a step up in class helps him here, even if his yard is in good form.

Treshnish is the epitome of inconsistency, as his last seven outings have seen him fail to finish three times (2 x PU and 1 x F) and finish last of 9, but win the other three! If he's on a going day, he could well handle the move from Class 5 to Class 3, but each of his other two wins in the recent 1F1P9P1 sequence have been followed by a non-completion.

Monsieur Co completes the line-up receiving 4 to 24lbs from his rivals and is now rated some 15lbs lower than when he won this very race last year. That said, he has failed to even make the frame in eight starts since that success. His yard are in decent form, his jockey is riding well enough and the horse has a good record here, but this could be a struggle.

That's a general overview of the runners, but for race specific stats, we turn to Instant Expert...

The King of May is largely untried at course/distance, but has won on soft and is proven at this grade and runs off a mark 4lbs lower than his last win. Slanelough has good place figures across the board, but 1 win from 13 at Class 3 is a worry and he's 5lbs higher than his last win. Cedar Hill also ticks lots of boxes from a place perspective, but also needs a career best to win and hasn't yet done so on soft ground. Zolfo, however, has soft ground and this trip nailed down based on six efforts on each and is very well weighted (-13 from last win), but he's up in class here and out of form.

Lucky Flight looks the worst off for these conditions, but has at least made the frame at Kelso and at this trip and has won off higher marks in the past, whilst Tresnish has a pair of soft ground wins to his name but has really struggled at this level and now moves up from Class 5. Bottom weight Monsieur Co is a whopping 15lbs better off from his last win, but that was a year ago and without that course and distance success, his numbers would look poor. This is well within his grasp, but his form is just so poor.

Based on the way these horses have approached their last four outings, I'd think that Slanelough is the one most likely to set the pace...

...with The King of May bringing up the rear and if we look at the four races individually...

I'd say that the averages from the first graphic have probably got the three pacesetters right as well as the back marker, so we'll now look at the pace stats for similar previous races to see if any of them will benefit or be disadvantaged...

I've gone back to 2013, so I could get at least 10 previous races and those stats do tend to suggest that the three more prominent runners would have the best chance of winning, based on pace stats alone.

Summary

The two I like best based on the above, where none of the seven stand out if truth be told (but that's good from a competitiveness point of view) are actually the top two in the market where Cedar Hill is 5./2 and Tresnish is 4/1. Personally I have very little between the two and if the real Tresnish turns up and he races further forward as he has done in his last two outings, then he'd be the one I want.

I know there's a few ifs and buts there, but that's why he's 4/1 and not 5/2 like Cedar Hill who is unproven on soft ground and hasn't won off a mark this high.

I suppose that picking these two with those doubts over them doesn't say much about the other five, but they're not bad horses, just not quite as good for this race as my preferred duo. My backup here would be the 5/1 The King of May, but if I'm honest, this is a Class 4 race race dressed up as a Class 3 and if you treat it as such, you won't be disappointed.

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