Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 29th September 2021

The Trainer Statistics report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. And the good news is that we open this Gold feature up to ALL readers every Wednesday!

In addition to opening a Gold feature up every day, we also offer a selection of full free racecards and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.00 Nottingham
  • 3.00 Nottingham
  • 5.05 Bellewstown
  • 5.30 Kempton
  • 8.00 Kempton

The second of the two Nottingham races is by the best (on paper) of the five free races, as it's a Class 2 flat handicap. It's over a six furlong trip on good to firm ground and it's worth almost £12,900, so it should be a decent contest. The only problem I have with it is the fact that it's got 17 runners, which is way beyond my comfort levels, so I'll be using the process of elimination technique today to narrow the field down to hopefully find myself a bet in the 3.00 Nottingham...

So, the first ones to be eliminated are Redrosezorro, Camachess and Afandem simply because I think the gulf between Class 2 and Class 5, at which all three were unplaced last time out, is too much of a step up in quality, so I'm now heading straight to the win & place elements of Instant Expert, where I'll seek to remove some more...

And here I've got my doubts over Flying Pursuit's constant failures to win at this level, even if he does have a 38% place strike rate it should be noted that his 14/39 place return is only 4 from 21 on ground quicker than good to soft. East Street Revue also fails on class with just 1 win and 1 place from 13 in this grade. My general rule is that is if you're still in the red for something after 10+ races, you're probably not best suited by that factor. Taking those two out leaves my racecard looking like this in draw order...

We don't get many big-field sprints here at Nottingham, so I've switched from the draw tab to the draw analyser, which says that from a win perspective...

...mid to high draws fare best, but it looks like just middle draws for place purposes, but let's check the graph, just in case...

Yes, that pretty much backs up that theory so good news for Wade's Magic, Second Collection, Ava Go Joe, Jordan Electrics and The Princes Poet, but even better for Lady Celia, Lezardrieux, World of Windhover and Ehrmann.

We'll now use the pace Analyser in the same way, where we won't need a graph...

...because it's patently clear that you want to be leading over a fast ground sprint here from both a win and place viewpoint and based on our field's last four outings...

...front running would seem to suit the likes of Lockdown, Lezardrieux, World of Windhover (except LTO) and possibly Ava Go Joe.

Lezardrieux, World of Windhover and Ava Go Joe are positives for both pace and draw, so they remain in contention. Lockdown would seem poorly drawn, but could outrun the draw with a quick start, so stays for now.

Khabib is drawn low and has been held up in his last two, so he's out of the running now, as is Prince of Bel Lir in stall 1 based on pace/draw. From those who are left Lady Celia is on 11-race losing streak and I'd say that The Princes Poet and Jordan Electrics were in the worst form. All of which leaves me with the following seven...

Some bookies will pay six places on this race, so just to get to that point I need to omit one one them and I'm going to stick my neck out and stay with those drawn 8-15, but retaining Lockdown ahead of Ehrmann at the final elimination stage with the latter looking out of sorts and better at shorter and/or softer.

Summary

I've got six possible placers here with some bookies paying 6 places, so in draw order...

Lockdown would be a serious contender for me, had he got a bit more turf form to his name. He always finds one or two too good for him and hasn't been great at seeing races out. He looks too short at 5/1 for my liking.

Lezardrieux comes here on a run of form reading 211 in 6f handicaps on quick ground and although up in class and weight is probably the one to beat here at 9/2.

World of Windhover had two wins and a place from his first four handicap runs but was last home of six at Newmarket last time out, seemingly unsuited by the track. I'm happy to overlook that run and I think he's top four material here and a decent E/W shout at 12/1.

Wade's Magic is the current 4/1 favourite, probably based on his recent run of form reading 311. The margins have been getting ever smaller and another 2lb rise makes this tough, but his yard is going well and he's the best of his trainer's five in this race. I still prefer Lezardrieux, though.

Second Collection is running well right now and was beaten by less than a length in a blanket finish at Haydock over a fast 6f last time out. She has two wins on good to firm ground already this season and whilst probably not quite good enough to land this would be another worth chancing a 12/1 E/W bet on, especially if you get the extra places.

Ava Go Joe doesn't win often enough as a 1 in 10 record would suggest, but he has made the frame six times including five runner-up finishes where he has gone down by less than a length. I'd suggest he's going to play second (or third/fourth etc) fiddle again today, but he's sure to be involved.

So for me, it's Lezardrieux's race to win at 9/2, but the price doesn't excite me enough to put any of my own money down. Wade's Magic should be best of the rest and I'll just have a couple of double digit E/W punts on World of Windhover and Second Collection

Good luck, however you play this one.

Chris

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