Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 2nd August 2021

August is now upon us and we kick off the new month with a look at Monday's racing. Feature of the day is the full access for ALL readers to the PACE tab for all races and if you're unsure how good the pace tab can be, let me show you the pace graphic from the race I analysed for Saturday...

And the race result...

The two pace horses were the first two home, as I predicted they would be. Sod's Law dictated that I got them the wrong way around, but as I tend to do in these "clearcut" contests, I also did the 1-2 and 2-1 exactas, so I still made a profit from the race and hopefully a few of you did too.

So, that's a quick reminder of the power of such a simple tool and that's available for all races on Monday, including the following free races of the day...

  • 2.10 Cork
  • 2.53 Newcastle
  • 3.25 Newcastle
  • 4.05 Naas
  • 4.20 Kempton
  • 6.45 Windsor

The last on that list is the only UK turf contest of the six and also happens to be the best quality (on paper, at least!) of them. It's not ideal for me and my restricted comfort zone, as it has 16 runners, but I might be able to find us an E/W angle (as most bookies are paying five places) if nothing else!

So, without further ado I'll put my qualms to one side and take a look at the 6.45 Windsor, a 16-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ sprint handicap over 6f on good to soft ground. The ground is better in places and with no further rain expected, might dry out further by the time the race comes around. The top prize is a decent £36k and here are the runners and riders...

Here at Geegeez, we've designed the racecards and associated tools so that you don't have to spend an eternity looking at a race and I'm certainly a fan of that approach! So, what I try to do with these big fields is to apply a quick process of elimination to give me a shortlist of possibles, who I can then have a deeper look at to see if there's a bet there for me or not. In this case I'm removing four runners based purely on their recent results and they are Chairmanoftheboard, Huraiz, Open Wide and Tinto giving me a card like this...

I now want to assess their previous form under today's race conditions via Instant Expert, starting with place form over the last two years...

And the obvious one for me to eliminate at this point is Flying Pursuit from an E/W perspective. If I then click the Win button, the numbers change accordingly to...

...where I'd have to say that Zim Baby looks the worst suite, so I'll take her out here too. This means I've swiftly taken 6 of the 16 runners out of my thoughts before we move on to pace and draw. We'll start with the draw and the blue line on the following graph suggests there's not going to be a huge bias from a win perspective, but the higher draws do marginally better...

...whilst in terms of pace, the preferred running styles seem to be either to lead or to sit in mid-division...

...prominent racers do OK, I suppose, but the takeaway here is not to dwell. If we combine the pace and draw stats together, the heatmaps look like this...

And these are (I hope) fairly self-explanatory. The low drawn leaders and the mid-drawn mid-div runners are interesting here, as they have really good place numbers, but don't convert into places often enough. They might be the ones for an E/W punt today.

We can overlay our runners onto those charts, as we already know the draw and we also log the running styles from every past race and the corresponding graphics are as follows...

WIN :

PLACE :

Summary

In all honesty, this has turned out to be a difficult race to analyse, but as I do these pieces on the hoof in the same way I mentally assess all races, it's only at this point that I know whether I've got something or I haven't and I don't think I have much right now and here's why.

I think that Edraak & Total Commitment are the two to beat, but neither look great from a win perspective above. The latter is in the green zone for a place, but at 13/2 is too short for me to back E/W. Operatic looked best on pace/draw as a winner, but doesn't beat either of the other two in my opinion, so there's no outright win bet for me here. I'll probably have a small reverse forecast/exacta on Edraak/Total Commitment, because that's what I think might happen.

For an E/W bet, Operatic still looks to be in a reasonable position and she has a 4lb weight allowance as a 3 yr old. She's a former course and distance winner, who also won here over 5f last time out, but is now up in class and weight (+4lbs). She could still make the frame here, but I'd want double digit odds and she's currently just 8/1, so she's only a bet for me if she drifts.

The one I will back, though, is Punchbowl Flyer at 17/2 E/W. This 4yr old has finished 11819 over this trip/class so far this season and the two defeats were in the Wokingham and the Stewards Cup, where he was beaten by less than 4.5 lengths, but was the first horse home from the low drawn runners. He looks like he might get an early lead here and whilst I don't see him winning, he really should have enough about him to hold on for a place.

So, it's an E/W or place only bet on Punchbowl Flyer now with a possible similar bet on Operatic if she drifts.

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