Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 2nd December 2021

The Instant Expert tab on the race cards has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.30 Clonmel
  • 2.45 Wincanton
  • 3.15 Wincanton
  • 6.30 Chelmsford

And it's the last of that quartet that interests me the most, as I do like a Chelmsford sprint. The 6.30 Chelmsford fits that bill as a 5f, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap worth £4,347 to the winner. We've 8 runners, which is good for E/W punters and here's the field...

My starting point is a quick run-through the details we already know from the card...

Form : Only Buy Me Back, Lion Ring and Aleef are winless in their last six outings, but the form horse is clearly Sir Rodneyredblood with three wins from four, for which he's no doubt penalised. He's also the only LTO winner

Class : We have class movers (all upwards), as Expert Opinion, Lion Ring and Storm Melody move up one level with Aleef moving from Class 6 to Class 4.

Course winners : Half of the field (Sir Rodneyredblood, Expert Opinion, Strom melody & Aleef) have won here previously.

Distance winners : Only Lion Ring has yet to win at 5f

The first three named of the four track winners are also course and distance winners

Last seen : All have raced inside 50 days with only Expert Opinion, Storm Melody and Aleef rested for more than 12 days.

At this point, I've already seen enough to suggest that Lion Ring won't be my pick here with a 0 from 11 record, off an unchanged mark from finishing 6th of 14 and stepping up in class. He's not for me, but I still take seven forward to feature of the day Instant Expert...

...where the form horse Sir Rodneyredblood looks head and shoulders above the rest even if he is up 5lbs for his win LTO and then you'd probably say Copinet was next in line. The Lion Ring's poor form is starkly highlighted here. Of the two best positioned on Instant Expert, they're drawn in stalls 3 and 5 of this left handed track and past races here over this trip tell us that...

...there's not really a significant bias. Yes, stall 4 has the fewest wins and stall 5 has the fewest places, but with good numbers either side of them, I think their stats are anomalous and I wouldn't necessarily suggest that Charming Kid won't win because of the draw and that Copinet will fail to make the frame for the same reasons. The fact is that the5f trip at Chelmsford is all about tactics and in those races above, the pace stats tell us that...

...the further forward you race, the greater your chances of making the frame and ultimately winning the contest. And we can now see how this field have raced in each of their last four outings...

...where once again Sir Rodneyredblood catches the eye. Closer inspection of those four runs tell us that the last two were at this class, course and distance, so you know the tactics are likely to spot on again.

Summary

It's hard to ignore the obvious claims of Sir Rodneyredblood as he attempts to complete a class, course and distance hat-trick inside 8 weeks. He's up 5lbs for a 1.5 length success last time out, which technically makes this tough, but he was comfortable in that win and could easily have been further clear at the finish. He's 211 over C&D, his best form is under today's jockey (6 from 22) and he has won each of his last three at this trip. His only defeat in his last four starts was over 5½f on fast ground at Brighton.

I'm not getting rich if he wins at 5/2, but he'd be the one I'd want to be with based on what we've seen. As for the others, I've already ruled out Lion Ring, leaving me with six others to fill two places.

Copinet is really interesting, having not been beaten by far on her yard debut last time out 12 days ago, despite not having raced for 100 days. Her jockey rides this track really well and he has a good record when riding for this yard. The filly has been eased a pound and that should get her closer to the action. Charming Kid was a neck ahead of her that day and he, too, has been lowered by a pound. The pair should therefore be closely matched, but Copinet should come on for having had the run, whilst Charming Kid now runs for the 6th time in 16 weeks, so probably won't have much more to find.

Buy Me Back, on the other hand, was half a length and ahead clear of the Kid in that same race and is also off a mark 1lb lower than that day. He got going a little too late for my liking that day, but was finishing strongly when the line came too soon for him, His yard are in decent nick right now and he'd have to be in with a chance of making the frame if running more prominently as he normally does, which is something I expect to see from Storm Melody who likes to set the pace and has done well off the front until finding a rising handicap mark of 67 and then 69 beyond him on his last two runs, fading badly late on both times and off 68 here, you'd have to say it was too high.

And if Storm Melody's mark of 68 is too high, then you'd have to say that Expert Opinion would be vulnerable off 72 and only having won 1 of 16 on the A/W to date and that was here over over course and distance off some 13lbs lower. He does tend to be there or thereabouts but a rising mark on a losing run is never a good combo and it's something I tend to avoid in the same way I've avoided Aleef of late! He did, admittedly, win off today's mark in early June but that came off the back of 11 straight defeats and he has run poorly of late, including a 10 length defeat last time out off just 1lb higher and had made the frame just four times in his last sixteen outings.

Based on the above, it has to be Buy Me Back and Copinet that I take (in that order) to join Sir Rodneyredblood in my 1-2-3. At 6/1 and 5/2 respectively, neither are long enough for an E/W bet, but if the former does drift, I'll be very interested.

 

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.