Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 3rd October 2020

Friday's race was a really interesting affair, with just half a length separating the first six home.

Our highlighted runners went well too. Be Proud did indeed go off as favourite, but at 3/1 I felt he was too short and left him alone, leaving us with Another Angel , who was third at 9/1 whilst the one I liked most, Young Tiger was a runner-up at 14/1, beaten by just a head.

Both highlighted placers finished well and had Young Tiger not dwelt at the start, it could have been a winner. Hopefully, those of you who did have a dabble went E/W and got something back. Next up is...

Saturday 3rd October

Feature of the Day is the Trainer/Jockey Combo report, which is free on Saturday to all registered subscribers. Register here if you need to.

Saturday's free Races of the Day are

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1.15 Tipperary
1.40 Newmarket
3.20 Newmarket
3.55 Newmarket
4.04 Fontwell
6.30 Wolverhampton

So, I'm going to discard the 1.40 (too many runners) and the two maiden contests (3.55 & 6.30), leaving me with three to choose from and I'm going with...

3.20 Newmarket : a 7-runner, Class 2, Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Soft ground worth £27,390 to the winner.

This race features two runners (Inclyne & Hyanna) on the Trainer/Jockey Combo report, so let's take a look at those two and see if we can predict how they'll get on tomorrow.

We'll start with the racecard and the relevant Trainer/Jockey records...

Georgia Dobie has 16 wins from 76 (21.05% SR) for Eve Johnson Houghton over the last twelve months at an A/E of 1.63 and an IV of 2.11 and together the pair are 2 from 6 (33.33% SR, A/E 2.63 & IV 3.04) here at Newmarket over the last five years.

Whereas William Buick is 4/11 (36.36% SR, A/E 1.45 & IV 3.64) for Andrew Balding over the last year and together, their 5-year Newmarket record stands at 3 from 8 (37.5% SR) at an A/E of 1.60 and IV of 3.42.

Neither of those records would put me off, so what about the pace/draw aspect?

This is more problematical, as neither are particularly well drawn for their running style, but this is a 1m4f contest and in a small field, tactics might well be changed to suit the occasion and with Hyanna being closer to the green on the heat map, I think she shades this one.

If we refer back to the racecard and the Geegeez ratings, Inclyne is well clear of the pack on 88, whilst Hyanna is joint worst at 66 and then I'd like to look at past performances under today's conditions ie...

Venue : Hyanna is 1/4 at Newmarket, whilst Inclyne is 1/3
Going : 1/4 on Soft against 0/3
Trip : 3/14 against 1/2
Jockey : Hyanna is 2/10 under Georgia Dobie, whilst this is William Buick's first ride on Inclyne
Number of runners : Hyanna's 4/9 in fields of 1-7 runners is excellent, whilst Inclyne is 0/1
Class : 2 from 12 for Hyanna at Class 2 versus Inclyne's first step up to this grade
Days Since Run : 4 from 15 at 16-30 dslr against 8/1 at 8-15 dslr

Summary

Other than the Geegeez Speed Rating, Hyanna looks a safer option than Inclyne and her experience at this level might prove beneficial in a contest where five of her six rivals are having to step up in class.

I'd be inclined to have a small win bet on her with a couple of caveats. I'd prefer the ground to be a bit drier and I'm a little worried about her shouldering top weight, so I'm going to suggest a 20/80 bet on Hyanna with Betfair or another exchange with 0.2pts on the win and 0.8pts on the place.

2 replies
  1. eddiek66
    eddiek66 says:

    Thanks for this Chris. Out of interest, what filters did you use for the TJ Combo? Did you look at 5 year course? 1 year? etc

    Reply

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