Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 2nd October 2021

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats Report (TJC), which brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report and has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations.

Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column. As with all our reports/features, a full explanation is provided in the User Guide.

As ever, we also have a list of free races to complement the feature of the day and for Saturday, those races will be...

  • 1.25 Killarney
  • 2.35 Killarney
  • 3.35 Redcar
  • 4.10 Redcar
  • 4.45 Redcar
  • 5.50 Redcar

The parameters I set for my TJC report are fairly stringent...

...and only provided me with one UK possible, so today's piece will revert back to the free list, where the Redcar card has a couple of Listed contests. The 3.35 doesn't really float my boat (fifteen 2yo runners? No thanks), so I'll back out of that and tackle the 4.10 Redcar instead. It's a 7-runner (8 would have been nice for E/W purposes), Listed race for any aged 3 or over. The trip is a straight 7f on good ground and one of these will trot away with not far shy of £27k...

Azano is the only one without a win in his last six outings and he's also the only class mover here, stepping up two levels which will be tough. All seven have raced at least once in the last 3 to 7 weeks with none turned back out really quickly. None of them won last time out, so technically all would have something to find in a race which if it was a handicap, Motakhayyel would be at least 7lbs well in with Azano the worst off.

Oh This Is Us was in fine form (29141) earlier in the season, but last of ten, 8th of 9 and 4th of 6 in his last three outings suggests he's had his best spell for this year already and although his yard do well here and his jockey is in good form, he has failed to make the frame in all three good ground 7f runs over the last two years.

Safe Voyage hasn't quite hit the heights of 2020, when he landed back to back Group 2 races and his bare form of making the frame just once in five runs this season doesn't look good, but the place was actually a win in a Listed race and the other four efforts were in Group 2/3 company. Trip is ideal for him, he'll be fine on good ground (he'd prefer softer, of course) and back down in Listed company, must have every chance here.

Azano has a solitary win (C4 Novice) from fifteen starts so far and is winless in thirteen since scoring at Yarmouth almost three years ago. His recent form of a runner-up finish and a third place flatter to deceive as they were both 3-runner, Class 3 contests an he's likely to be out of his depth here.

Motakhayyel is a more than useful type, but has yet to transfer his good Class 2 handicap form (1611016) into anything meaningful at Class 1, apart from a very good run to finish 2nd of 9 in the Group 3 Criterion Stakes in June. His last two runs have seen him 6th of 19 in a Class 2 handicap and most recently 8th of 10 in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes. He clearly has the ability to take this, but I wonder if he's not just about done for the season already?

Bullace is a lightly-raced (7 starts) 3 yr old who started out 2111 in his first four outings followed by a third place, just beaten by a length in a Listed race at Sandown back in May. Just two runs since have seen him 11th of 13 at Gr 1 and 6th of 7 in another Sandown Listed contest and perhaps he's gone off the boil at the wrong time.

Rhoscolyn, on the other hand has been a far busier 3yo with 17 races in the tank already including 10 this season that have seen him land 3 wins and 4 further places. Like some of the others above, his season has petered out a little since finishing 2111 earlier in the season but has managed to keep it together enough to only be beaten by less than 4 lengths at Gr 3 and by less than 3 lengths in a Listed race in his last two efforts. A similar run here puts him in the mix, although he'd be somewhat of a surprise winner.

Glesga Girl is the only filly in the race and carries just 8st7lbs, but that still only puts her better off than two runners at the weights, based on handicap marks. Her form on the A/W reads 211, but she's 0 from 7 on turf and although 3rd of 10 and 3rd of 12 in a pair of Listed races in July and August and a decent effort to get within 4 lengths of the winner in a Gr 3 last time out, she has work to do here. I don't see her winning, but she'll run her race and won't be humiliated here. Mid-div, I suspect.

Instant Expert gives us race specific relevant form and pretty much speaks for itself...

...where Safe Voyage catches the eye. Those are win percentages above, but he has made the frame in 50% of his good ground runs, 60% of Class 1's and 58% of 7f contests. His place stats are terrific and here they are in comparison with his rivals...

Not many of them have done well at this level, but all should be suited by the trip and Azano looks the weakest again.

The initial draw stats suggest higher is better here...

...which would count against the likes of Oh This Is Us and Rhoscolyn, plus Bullace possibly with those drawn highest making the frame most often, but actual stall draw stats suggest that Safe Voyage in box number 5 is best drawn of all...

...although the above doesn't really suggest a huge draw bias to me, so race tactics aka pace might well be the decider and the stats tell me that...

...hold-up horses fare really badly, but all of the other three running styles can win readily enough. Off a small sample size, those waited with in mid-division have done very well, but leaders have tended to hang on for place money most often.

This field have raced as follows in their last four runs...

...with Oh This Is Us being held-up in his last two. That allied with a poor draw in stall 1 isn't going to hep his chances. In fact only Rhoscolyn, Safe Voyage and Azano haven't been held up in any of their last four.

We can marry the pace and draw stats together to produce the composite heat map showing what we think would be the best combinations, but because there's not a massive draw or pace bias, other than not wanting to be drawn too low and/or be held-up...

...all seem to be in with a shout. Azano looks set to take it on from stall 6 which should give the one next door, Safe Voyage, a good tow into the race.

Often in these races, when there's no discernible bias at neither pace nor draw, we have to lean heavier on the relevant form (Instant Expert), overall form (the horse overview) and that unquantifiable gut feeling.

Summary

I expect Azano to set the pace, but he's out of his depth here and will probably wilt under the pressure. he'll probably give Safe Voyage a good tow into the race and if he can put daylight between himself and the field, he might be tough to catch. Motakhayyel is the other side of Azano and widest of all, so will have the best view of what is going on and having led three starts ago, might decide to race more prominently here and get involved earlier.

Based on those assumptions and everything above, I'd have Safe Voyage as my winner ahead of Motakhayyel. The market has them the other way around and mine are currently priced at 7/2 and 6/4.

7/2 looks a fair price for Safe Voyage so I'm on.

For those needing a third horse for tricast/trifecta (only 2 places for E/W punters), the 5/1 Rhoscolyn could go well down in trip and on easier ground.

 

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