Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 30th September 2020

One of the elements that separates the betting improvers from the stay-the-samers is reviewing matters after the fact. Because Racing Insights is more of a stream of punting consciousness than a tipping column, it allows us to - Janus-like - look back as well as forward. That's a verbose way of saying we'll include any observations from the previous day which might be useful in future. We might call that Racing Hindsights...!

Racing Hindsights

Looking at yesterday's inaugural offering - link here - the draw/pace combination did for form horses Equidae, as predicted, though the market also foresaw that, his odds drifting from 7/2 to an SP of 15/2. He finished 11th of 14 having got shunted wide and never securing an effective racing position.

At the sharp end, I overlooked the winner - and favourite - Ugo Gregory on the basis that I didn't want to be with a hold up horse. As it happened, there was a lot of pace, more than expected, and that set things up for the well-drawn waited-with victor.

A couple of takeaways: firstly, in this race, Nobby Nuts was ridden more patiently than has recently been the case, and encountered a little trouble in running. He stayed on for a never nearer sixth, and might have been fourth with a clear passage. He wasn't unlucky as such, as he'd have never troubled the first two, but he goes in my tracker with the following comment:

Nothing to go overboard on, but could be a fair price and offer a bit of value in a big field soon.

The second point, and a good one for me personally, was that although the prominent low draws didn't land the spoils in the featured seven-furlong handicap, they did in the other two races. Both Highfield Princess (11/4) and Redarna (13/2) were very well backed (including by me 🙂 ) and won comfortably. The takeaway is that Ayr's seven furlong range is one where low/prominent is a setup from which to find a bet; and kudos to Dave Renham for flagging that. His work is something we may return to regularly.

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Racing Insights, 30th September 2020

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To Wednesday's racing. Feature of the Day is the Trainer Statistics report, which is free to all registered subscribers. Register here if you need to.

Wednesday's free Races of the Day are

Let's take a look at the Trainer Stats report, Course 5 Year view. I have some filters set, which are 15 runs minimum, A/E 1.25 and IV 1.5. If you want to know more about those metrics, you should check out this important post. Just understanding these numbers - and putting them to work for you - will give you a head start on almost all punters. Obviously, feel free to set these filters up in a way that suits your personal tastes.

I've clicked the A/E column heading to sort by that column, largest first, and that gives me a list of trainers and their horses to look at more closely.

Clicking the 'Show/Hide Inline' button reveals the actual runners:

I'm immediately struck by the top row which tells me that Saeed bin Suroor has a 50% strike rate at Nottingham in the last five years. When I click on the little black down arrow to the left hand side of his name, it shows me his actual runners. (This past history table can be sorted by any column, so you can see, for example, whether they were all shorties, or for a particular jockey, or if the winners were a long time ago, etc).

There's lots of recency in the winner column, and for a range of jockeys. Most were at the 5/1 or shorter price point - no odds on site at the time of writing - so we might want to focus at the sharp end.

Picking between the quartet is bound to lead to egg on face, but I will highlight one of them for the sake of this piece. Global Hero had a long time off and was entitled to need his comeback run. We can see from the inline trainer data below that bin Suroor's record with horses having their second start in a handicap (note also the HC2 indicator adjacent to the horse's name) is very strong - 28% - as is his record when he steps one up markedly in trip, nigh on 30% of those having won in the last two years.

It's a competitive race, and a good race, too; but he is interesting as a starting point.

 

Summary

That's all for today. Remember, these articles will always have a beginning (the retrospective on the previous day) and a middle (some thoughts and observations around potentially playable angles for the following day's racing), but they may be lacking an end - a pick.

Sometimes they will, sometimes they won't. As you'll doubtless already be tired of reading, that's not the purpose of Racing Insights.

Do please leave a comment with any thoughts or questions you have, and we'll try to address them in subsequent days.

Matt

p.s. Racing Insights 'officially' replaces Stat of the Day from tomorrow evening with the first day's racing featured being 1st October.

12 replies
  1. Chris J
    Chris J says:

    Love these columns already Matt 🙂
    Could you explain why you backed Highfield Princess? Pace map says ‘may be falsely run’, which I’m sure I’ve heard you say before are races to avoid?

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Chris

      Many thanks for the feedback, that’s great that you’re finding value in the new articles. Thank you.

      Regarding your question, I tend to use last 3 runs these days, especially in races where horses haven’t run many times.
      Many in this race had run plenty but Highfield Princess was having only her 2nd handicap start.
      It is often the case that horses running in handicaps for the first (or first few) time(s) race a good bit more prominently than had been the case when working towards their opening handicap mark. I know, go figure!

      In truth, that explanation – while relevant in the general run of things – was incidental in this case: I had ‘3 runs’ set as the default and it showed up even pace with her looking to be close up when the pace quickened. It certainly wasn’t a large bet; and the one on Redarna was under-staked, frustrating for all that I know she would have been a popular winner with Gold punters.

      Hope that makes some semblance of sense. There is generally a feel/experience component to such things, though in this case it was fairly formulaic.

      Matt

      Reply
  2. Lateralus01
    Lateralus01 says:

    Great stuff, Matt. As someone who frequently finds himself using geegeez as an accompaniment while watching racing, quite often on no bet days for me, I really like the broader approach, and feel it’s an angle that is often undervalued. For the record, I loved Chris’s work on stat of the day because of its meticulous focus on the process as well. I haven’t been a user for long, but one of the main attractions for me to geegeez was the quality of the articles published here. Racing insights is already looking like a fine addition, and I’m really looking forward to seeing how the column develops over time.

    Reply
  3. scmelville
    scmelville says:

    Hello – where will Racing Insights be found as a top menu option please? Under Pointers or Blog maybe? Sorry if I am being blind.
    Thanks, Simon

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Simon

      Thanks for the question: you’ll find it under the Pointers menu and on the page of the same name – I’ve just added them!

      Matt

      Reply
  4. lazyhazy
    lazyhazy says:

    Hi Matt, one area I always struggle with which is highlighted here is multiple runners from a certain (String) angle/snippet. How would you advise approaching this please? To be honest I just usually leave it alone, deciding that I don’t want to back 2,3 or 4 Horses.

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi lazyhazy

      An angle like that is just a starting point, not a ‘you should bet this/these’ end point.

      I’d be marking up runners like that but would generally still need to find another reason – which could be (and would always factor in) price – to back them.

      Looking specifically at bin Suroor’s four today, for example, one is a NR.
      I’d be interested in Late Morning though probably wouldn’t back her with two other Godolphins in there (plenty have, by the looks of it).
      Global Hero, as mentioned, is one I’d certainly be looking at in more detail but it’s a super hot race (including SotD!)
      And Arabian Warrior is no bargain at 7/4, but nor does he look terrible value as a progressive 3yo getting chunks of weight in spite of being top rated. I think he’ll probably win.

      Regardless of what happens, the key is that appearing on a report is rarely enough in/of itself to justify a bet. It’s no more than an ‘in’.

      Matt

      Reply
  5. yzahjh
    yzahjh says:

    Hi Matt,

    Great article as per.
    Where you state ” I’m immediately struck by the top row which tells me that Saeed bin Suroor has a 50% strike rate at Nottingham in the last five years.”
    I tend to stay clear of stats with high strike rates and high profit & loss as my mind tells me there will be a drop in strike rate and profit & loss.

    Regards, John.

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Very good point, John; and also, as Lee said, it’s often easier/better to focus on trainers with just one runner and/or a lesser ‘star’ name.

      But, in truth, there isn’t a right or wrong way. It will be very interesting to understand how readers set about the puzzle in the coming weeks/months.

      Thanks for sharing,
      Matt

      Reply

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