Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 3rd August 2021

Tuesday's feature of the day is The Shortlist, a simple and usually brief report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day, signifying they've fared well under similar conditions in the past. In addition to this free feature, we also have the following full racecards available to ALL readers...

  • 3.00 Ffos Las
  • 3.55 Catterick
  • 4.18 Chelmsford
  • 7.00 Lingfield
  • 7.40 Roscommon

The Shortlist is fairly sparse for tomorrow...

...so I'll revert to the list of free races where the five on offer come from five tracks and it's the middle one that looks the best on paper, so we're off to Essex for the 4.18 Chelmsford. It's a Class 3, 5f sprint across the polytrack where the following ten 3yo+ runners will aim to land a prize of £6,210...

My first thoughts on this one were that it looks pretty competitive and that there were easily four or five that I thought could be possible winners. Our Geegeez SR figures have the top three just a point apart, whilst after allowances the top four in the weights are just 3lbs apart. Those sets of data also suggest a tight affair. Only Rocket Action, Lomu, Han Solo Berger and Nigel Nott are winless in their last last few runs, but Rocket Action aside, the other three have been placed in two or three of those defeats.

Indeed, on recent results alone, Rocket Action looks the weakest here, but he does drop down to Class 3 after over a year of Class 1 action. Live In The Moment and Nigel Nott both drop down from Class 2, whilst Royal Birth, Lomu, Han Solo Berger, Rewaayat and Jack The Truth are all stepping up in class today. In fact, only Raaeb and Top Breeze ran at this level last time out and both were unplaced, whilst Live In the Moment is the only LTO winner on display.

He does, however, have a 317-day absence to overcome here, whilst six of the field have raced in the last month or so. Rewaayat is the only one yet to win at either course or distance, six have won here before, eight have won over this trip and four have won over 5f here at Chelmsford.

Raaeb is one from one here at Chelmsford and that win four starts and 15 weeks ago was his last success. He was a staying on fourth or eight at Lingfield last time out, beaten by a head and two necks over 6f at this level and he now drops down to 5f for the first time.

Rocket Action finished 1211 in A/W 5f Class 2/3 handicaps in an eight week period from August to November 2019, but has failed to make the frame in six starts since, albeit all at Class 1. This is a more suitable test of his abilities, but on form you'd haver to think others were more likely.

Royal Birth is a 10 yr old veteran of some 82 races with an 11 from 60 record on the A/W. He has 13 career wins over this trip including three here at Chelmsford and won a Class 2 handicap at Kempton three starts ago off just one pound higher. I don't see him landing this one, but he's got to have a chance of making the frame on his return to the A/W.

Live In The Moment has finished 121111 in his last six outings, but they all took place from June to September last year. The last of those runs was here over course and distance one class higher than today, but not only has he been off track for over ten months, he's also up 4lbs. If he had been seen more recently, I'd be really interested in him here, but I think he'll need the run.

Top Breeze won here over 6f two starts ago off a mark of 85, but struggled to land a blow on good to soft ground at Epsom last time out after being raised 4lbs. He runs off that same mark today, but the return to A/W racing is a positive that might see him in a better light. He had some good results off low 90's marks last year, so 89 really shouldn't be beyond him and I think he could well make the frame.

Lomu is 7 from 38 overall, but has won just once in 19 starts since the start of 2020 and remains, for me, too high in the weights to get involved here, even if he has finished 2352 in four starts this summer. They were all at Class 4 in fields of just 4 to 6 runners and this looks a tough ask to even make the frame.

Han Solo Berger won a Class 2, 5f handicap at Wolverhampton off a pound higher back in October, but hasn't run to the same effect since after being put up in weight. His mark has started to drop of late to the point where he was only beaten by two lengths last time out at Newmarket. That, however, was a Class 4 contest off a mark of 80 and he now runs at Class 3 off 86 and that's too much to ask in my opinion. He could well threaten the places, but I'm not fancying his chances of winning.

Rewaayat seems to start races well without always seeing them out, being headed late on in three of his last four starts. A step up in class allied to a 0 from 5 record over this trip doesn't inspire confidence and I suspect he'll be shorter in the market than I'd want him to be.

Nigel Nott's overall profile doesn't scream "back me!", but 3 of his 4 wins are here at Chelmsford, 3 are over 5f and he has two wins and a runner-up finish from efforts over course and distance. He has now dropped in the weights to run off the same mark as his last C&D win, but his in-form jockey takes another 3lbs off and he could very well surprise a few here.

Jack The Truth is a four-time winner over course and distance including one as recently as February. He has, however, laboured since and could only finish third of four here last time out. He hasn't raced for almost three months and off just 1lb lower, might well need the run.

Plenty of these would appear to have chance based on the above and there are plenty of good stats to be considered there, but what of their form under Tuesday's expected conditions? Instant Expert has those answers...

The slow going here doesn't seem to be have been everyone's cup of tea, especially Nigel Nott at 0 from 6 although he did make the frame in two of them. He's also struggled in this grade, whilst Rocket Action and Royal Birth have fared best. Jack The Truth and Nigel Nott are the two with the most runs/wins here at Chelmsford and in addition to those wins, the former has 2 placed finishes and the latter has three.

As for the trip, we've half the field with a 1-in-3 or better record with Royal Birth not far off that mark either with those same six runners making the frame in more than 50% of their 5f A/W handicap outings. With regard to weight/official ratings, Rewaayat is now some 16lbs higher than his last A/W handicap success, but four of the field are running off marks equal to or lower than their own last win.

Matt calls Chelmsford a bit of a speedway track and he says that in these sprints contests, the plan has to be to get out quick and stay out. This isn't purely anecdotal, by the way, his thoughts are backed by the following stats...

Just look at how the IV figure drops, the further back you race here over 5f. The IV of the leaders is 2.1 times that of prominent runners, who in turn have a 1.36 times bigger IV than mid-division runners, who themselves seem almost 2.1 times more likely to win than hold up horses. The stark difference between leaders and hold up runners is amazing. Two and a third times more winners from just 39% of the runners is incredible and is a clear message not to dwell!

As for the draw, I've got in my head that low draws are the best here, so let's see if I'm remembering that correctly...

...and yes, stall 1 has performed best, but anywhere in the lower half of the draw looks good for win purposes, whilst even as far down as stall 6 is good for a place. A simple deduction from the above charts would be that if you've got a leader drawn in the lower half of the field, you should be well set for at least a place, then?

Definitely! Whilst, as for actually winning the contest...

...the higher drawn horses come out on top, converting more of their place runs into wins. We can now look at our runners' previous recent running styles and overlay them onto those heatmaps, starting with the places...

...where Raaeb, Live In The Moment and Royal Birth look best suited for the frame, whilst with regards to finishing first...

...again Raaeb and Live In The Moment look most likely, but the stats (darkness of green) aren't the strongest.

Summary

A tricky/competitive heat here. Form, the write-ups, Instant Expert, Pace & draw all point to different horses failing/succeeding, but taking everything into consideration, the ones I think most likely to be in the mix are (alphabetically) Han Solo Berger, Nigel Nott, Raaeb, Royal Birth and Top Breeze. Of those five, I suspect Han Solo Berger is in the assessor's grip off a mark of 86 and the same probably applies to Top Breeze off 89.

That leaves me with the 3/1 favourite Raaeb as the most likely winner here. I'd have hoped he'd be a little longer priced than that, but he should be good enough to land this. I'm also still left with Nigel Nott and Royal Birth and whilst I don't see them getting close enough to cause an upset, odds of 14/1 and 16/1 respectively are interesting and probably worth a small E/W or place punt, unless I've read it completely wrong!

 

 

 

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1 reply
  1. 10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards
  2. Eddie
    Eddie says:

    I am surprised that your selection today is a horse that stayed on well over fur. And is now dropped to 5.
    Kind revards
    Eddie

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