Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 3rd November 2021

Wednesday is Trainer Stats Report day and it's actually four reports in one, containing information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

We also have our daily selection of free races, of course and they are...

  • 1.00 Chepstow
  • 1.10 Nottingham
  • 3.10 Nottingham
  • 3.15 Kempton
  • 5.45 Kempton

And I think we'll tackle the soft ground sprint in the middle of that where we've a horse attempting a fourth successive course and distance win. This means our focus is on the 3.10 Nottingham, a 9-runner, Class 3, soft ground, 3yo+, 5f flat handicap worth £8,100...

There's no getting away from Raasel's recent form here, winning four on the bounce, including the last three here over course and distance and although he's likely to be a warm favourite, bottom weight Dark Shot also arrives here in good form. Both horses are former course and distance winners, as is Wrenthorpe and all the field have won over today's trip. Three horses (Pendleton, Caroline Dale & Illusionist) drop down from Class 2, whilst both Sir Titus and Rayong move up from Class 4 action last time out sixteen days ago, which is the longest time since any of this field last ran.

Instant Expert gives me a quick overview of how these horses have raced in similar conditions prior to today...

...and although Raasel shows no soft ground handicap runs, he has won on soft ground in a novice race on debut a couple of years ago. Six of his rivals have already won on soft ground in handicap company too, which makes this interesting. We've six Class 3 handicap winners and both Raasel & Wrenthorpe have excellent records at this venue. As expected, Raasel also leads the way over this trip, but the likes of Pendleton, Wrenthorpe and Sir Titus shouldn't be dismissed lightly over 5f.

As you'd expect on a straight five, there isn't a massive draw bias, but those drawn highest in 8-10 runner affair seems to have fared slightly worse than those inside them...

...which is probably not the best news for the likes of Rayong, Pendleton or Rolfe Rembrandt, but in races where there's not a huge draw advantage anyway, it's often how the race unfolds that is key to the result and what you're looking for here is a horse who likes to get on with it, as prominent racers have fared best in terms of wins...

...followed by leaders, who have the best place record. To try to work out how our field might break from the stalls, we can look at their past four outings...

...and it looks like the pace in the race is in the lower half of the draw in stalls 1, 2, 3 and 5, which would also align itself well with the pace draw heat map as follows...

At this point it's difficult to overlook the claims of those in stalls 1 to 3 based on both pace and draw, Raasel sits on the cusp of having the best pace/draw make-up and Illusionist is also very well placed and I think that it's these five that I'd want to be choosing between.

Summary

This actually looks a pretty tight contest, where Raasel should be the winner, but I don't think he has much margin for error carrying a 5lb penalty for beating Dark Shot here over course and distance by 2.75 lengths. The runner-up is now some 7lbs better off with the fav and if he doesn't catch him this time, he's sure to be a fair bit closer and on the form of that run, I want Raasel and Dark Shot as my 1-2. They'll probably finish in that order, just about, but I can't be backing Raasel at 7/4 based on what I've just written.

Dark Shot is more likely to have to play second fiddle, but if allowed an easy lead, might prove us all wrong and at odds of 11/2, could well be worth  a speculative quid or two. Of the remaining three, I prefer the chances of Wrenthorpe to Sir Titus and Illusionist. he's drawn well, he'll race prominently, he has 4 wins and 2 places from 7 C&D efforts, he likes soft ground (the softer, the better) and at a price of 12/1 with Hills is well worth an E/W punt.

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