Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 4th August 2021

Wednesday's free feature is the excellent Trainer Stats report, which is in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course since 2009, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. In addition to this report, we also offer the following free races of the day...

  • 1.35 Bath
  • 2.52 Sligo
  • 3.20 Bath
  • 4.37 Sligo
  • 8.00 Kempton

My applied settings on the Trainer Stats report have thrown up a few runners worth a second look...

...and for today's piece, I'm going to combine that report above with the free race list and take a look at the 8.00 Kempton. It's an 8-runner (hopefully stays that way for you E/W bettors), Class 4, A/W (Poly) handicap for 4yo+ horses over a mile and a half. First prize is £5,400 and here are the contenders...

Only Gold Arch is without a win in the last five starts, although he has been placed in 3 of 5 and did win 6 and 7 races ago. He's down two classes here on new yard debut, whilst Aced It and Keep It Brief also drop in class for this one. Conversely Lady Pendragon, Chai Yo Power and Civilian are all stepping up in class with the latter making his handicap bow. Five of the field have raced inside the last 40 days, but Gold Arch hasn't been seen for ten months. Lady Pendragon is the only one without a win at either track or trip, whilst Garbanzo and Aced It are former course and distance winners.

Civilian makes a handicap debut on his second UK run almost three weeks after finishing third of nine, beaten by almost 10 lengths over 1m2f at Leicester. Based on that run alone, he's really going to have to improve to be involved here, although he did win a soft ground contest over 1m4f at Dieppe last summer on his last run (of two, runner-up over 1m2.5f on debut) in France. His trainer features on that Trainer Stats graphic above and is in good form, whilst his jockey has a good recent record here...

Garbanzo is an interesting runner here. His record on the A/W reads 331, the last of which was a course and distance success here off a mark just 1lb lower than today. That, however, was 3 days shy of 2 years ago and he hasn't raced on the A/W since. He has only raced seven times in total since then and from mid-December 2019, he has only been hurdling. It hasn't worked out there though, failing to make the frame in five starts. Not one to have confidence in here.

Chai Yo Power is the form horse here with a runner-up finish and two wins since embarking into handicaps in mid-June. His mark has gone from 72 to 83 in that time and whilst he's clearly a promising type, he has only won both races narrowly and will find this tougher up 8lbs and back up in class.

Aced It was on a hat-trick prior to his last run at Ascot, after successive wins over today's trip both here at Kempton and also at Doncaster. Sadly a 6lb rise to a mark of 82 was too much for him and he was beaten by some 26 lengths at Ascot. he's down in class which should help, but he's still on the same mark and that's probably too much for him.

No Nay Bella is without a win in four starts this season, but has made the frame twice going down by a length or less in both runs. She also win her last two starts of 2020, both over 1m3f here at Kempton, as indeed were this season's two places taking her Kempton form line to 511132. She'd be an unlikely winner off a mark of 81 (sub-80 would be better), but she's every chance of a place, whilst this is interesting...

Keep it Brief is two from three on the A/W and two from two here at Kempton, both over 1m3f, albeit at Class 5. He's now 7lbs and one class higher than that last win two starts and four weeks ago, so this will be a tough nut for him to crack, especially if you consider how poorly he ran at Newbury LTO. But conditions are better for him here and he must have some chance of making the frame.

Gold Arch has won four and placed in four of his last thirteen runs and at 4 from 9 is a far better runner on the A/W than on the Flat where he is 0 from 7. He hasn't raced in almost 10 months since finishing well down the field in the Cesarewitch and it's almost 11 months since his last A/W run. His yard is in good nick and whilst he has ability, I think he's too high in the weights and the lay-off won't help.

Lady Pendragon is another better on the A/W where her form reads 53611 as opposed to her failure to even make the frame in six starts on turf. She hasn't raced on the A/W since mid-December, but has had three outings on turf to sharpen her up. She'll need to return to last season's form to be involved here, but she could well be a decent E/W chance at a good price.

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At this point, I'd be leaning towards the likes of Chai Yo Power, Keep It Brief, Lady Pendragon and No Nay Bella in alphabetical order based on the above details now let's consider how their past form stacks up under expected conditions here...

And it's pretty good! The bottom two on the card look vulnerable here, but Lady Pendragon is only 2lbs higher than her last win, whilst some rivals are 7 to 12lbs up, so she might not yet be out of it.

The draw would suggest that the higher you are the better from a win perspective, but lower drawn horses make the frame more often...

..this is good news for likely favourite and form horse, Chai Yo Power in stall 8, whilst the other three I was leaning towards are in stalls 1 to 3, increasing confidence about the chances of an E/W bet. That said, it's all well and good having the right draw, but it's how you use it that's equally important if not more so over longer trips and the stats are telling me that the order of preference for race positioning is as follows...

...which makes a lot of sense. Hold up horses often have too much to do to catch up on slow ground, whilst leaders tend to expend too much energy early on to sustain the pace over a mile and a half and they get picked off from those in behind. All of which combines to give us this...

...where mid to high, mid-div to prominent runners fare best from a win perspective. We can then take the last three runs of our field and overlay that onto the heatmap and in draw order, it looks like this...

Civilian's position is based on the one run only, where he led early. Chai Yo Power is firmly in the green, whilst Lady Pendragon looks best suited of the lowly drawn runners.

Summary

Chai Yo Power looks the best horse here to me and it should be his race to win/lose. I can't back him, though. Two narrow wins have put him up 12lbs and he's up in class here, I know that doesn't mean he can't win, but I don't think it makes him an 11/10 shot either.

So, if I want a bet, I need a placer or E/W angle and I still like all three low drawn horses. I think No Nay Bella is the best of them and at 14/1, I'm definitely interested. Lady Pendragon is available at 12's which appeals to me more than the 9/1 about Keep It Brief.

 

 

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2 replies
  1. 10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards
  2. Blokeshead
    Blokeshead says:

    A Tom and Hollie one-two (or two-one) would be rather nice at those prices…. here’s hoping!

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