Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 4th December 2021

Saturday's free feature is the rather excellent Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) Report, bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

Alongside this free report, we also offer the following half dozen 'free' races of the day...

  • 11.30 Navan
  • 12.27 Wetherby
  • 1.22 Chepstow
  • 2.25 Sandown
  • 2.53 Navan
  • 3.22 Wetherby

I haven't got many qualifiers of note on my TJC report for Saturday, so I'm heading to Wales for the 1.22 Chepstow,  an 11-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over 2m7½f on good to soft ground. It's a Welsh Grand National trial worth just over £13k to the winner who'll have go left handed and tackle 18 fences. Here's how they line up..

Truckers Lodge won a 3m chase here just over two years ago and was very impressive when landing the 2020 Midlands National by 18 lengths. He stays all day long, was only 7.5 lengths off the winner of this year's Midlands National, despite trying to defend His crown some 12lbs higher. Now eased three pounds, could go well again if ready first up at a track where his form reads 1124127.

One For Rosie was a decent bumpers/hurdles runner (3 wins & 2 places from 7) before winning his first two efforts over fences earlier this year. He didn't live up to those standards when pulled up in a Listed contest at Ascot at the end of October, but he was markedly up in class after a layoff of 223 days. This is easier (on paper) now he's down in class, he's got the benefit of having had a run and he's 1lb lighter than his last win thanks to his jockey claiming 3lbs.

Ami Debois is better than his formline might suggest even if he hasn't won a race for almost four years. He has, however, been a runner-up in three of his last five outings and was unlucky to get brought down in this year's Grand National and now makes a yard debut for a trainer with a decent record at this venue. Not an obvious winner, but could well be good enough for a place now dropped in class and will race up with the pace.

Laskalin has won four times over fences in France, but now makes just a second UK start and a handicap debut here after not really shining in a Listed race at Wetherby five weeks ago when he could only manage 6th of 10, some 21 lengths off the winner. His French form says he has ability, but an opening handicap mark of 138 looks tough, even if the yard are in good form and do well in chases here at Chepstow.

Springtown Lake was a very creditable 5th in the Grand Sefton at Aintree this time last year, but hasn't kicked on from there, going down by 32 lengths on Boxing Day and then by 22 lengths two months later. Off track now for just over 40 weeks, he's likely to need a run or two, but if up for it fresh, he's in the hands of an in-form rider...

Run To Milan, after just 13 starts, is pretty lightly raced for a 9yr old and has made the frame in three of his last four over fences even if that run stretches back to New Year's Day 2019! He reappeared at Exeter in early November after an 8 month break, but still ran 3rd of 11, beaten by less than three lengths and would be entitled to improve for that run, even if he has been raised another 5lbs. His jockey has done well for this yard over the last year and will be hopeful of placing once more...

St Barts is even less exposed after a total of just seven races, including finishes of 215 over fences. He's also a winning pointer and much will depend on how he runs first up after not being seen since march. That said, his trainer has historically done pretty well in chases at this track, so he'd be in with a shout.

Eclair Surf was definitely going the right way over fences, finishing 2141 in his first four starts, but he then finished last but one of nine at Uttoxeter in March, beaten by 40 lengths before taking a 235-day break. He returned to action at Bangor just 24 days ago, but was a faller and he's probably best left watched here now with his yard scratching about for winners.

Colorado Doc is another without too many miles on the clock, having raced just twelve times, making the frame in six of them, winning three times. He ran really well to finish second of nine over an inadequate 2m4f at Newbury last week and I'd expect him to improve back up in trip.

Iwilldoit won nicely on his chase debut at Kelso just after Christmas 2019, but then didn't run again for 343 days before re-surfacing at the same venue in a 54 length defeat when not seeing 4m out. He then dropped in trip for three hurdles contests in the spring of this year, but I think results of 273 flatter him (he was beaten by 26 lengths LTO). Now up in class, back over fences and returning from 226 days in the shed, others make far more appeal to me, even if his yard have a good record from a small number of chasers...

Supreme Escape has a hit and miss record over fences, winning two of six by not very much, pulled up in two of the six and beaten by 31 lengths and 30 lengths in the other two. Both wins came at Class 4, so he's two grades higher here and his current mark of 124, whilst not high, is still 8lbs higher than when he won here over 3m7f in March. Add in a 42 length defeat over hurdles at Aintree a month ago and you've one to swerve here, I think, despite the following positives...

At this point, the ones I'm probably leaning towards (alphabetically) are Colorado Doc, One For Rosie, Run To Milan, St Barts and Truckers Lodge, but it looks a decent/competitive affair.

I've written above about how they've ran in recent races, but for overall form, we turn to our trusty colour-coded Instant Expert for a quick overview...

...where truckers Lodge is not only the standout of my five possibles from section 1, but he's the standout in the whole field for me here. He only falls down on class, but they all do. Springtown Lake is the only previous Class 2 winner, but Truckers Lodge has won a Listed race and is the only former Class 1 winner here. None of the field run off a lower mark than their last win and Supreme Escape's greens need the caveat that they're Class 4-based. Good to see so many winners in and around today's trip, that will hopefully mean that we have plenty of finishers, assuming they've not done too much too soon or they've not left themselves too much work to do. The pace stats will help with that...

...where the basic premise is that the further forward you race the better your chances of making the frame (61.1% of leaders get placed!) and ultimately going on to win. Leaders have won 22.2% of their races, which makes them three times more likely than the rest of the field.

So, who will set the pace?

Well, the recent pace scores are very interesting with most of the field liking to get on with things...

Seven of the eleven have an average pace score of 3.00 or higher, including my five from section 1.. If they all go at it from the start, then it could really test the stamina of the leading bunch, which might be right up Truckers Lodge's street, as he has good heavy ground form and has won at 4m2f. In fact he has 4 wins and 2 places from 10 at 3 miles and beyond, whilst both Run To Milan and St Barts have three places from four at 3m+, winning once and twice respectively.

Summary

After I'd had a quick look at the card and the report angles and done a small write-up of each horse, I thought I'd want to be looking at Colorado Doc, One For Rosie, Run To Milan, St Barts and Truckers Lodge. Nothing has really changed my mind and none of the other half dozen have forced their way into my reckoning.

Of my five, I think the final two are the ones I like best. St Barts is probably a marginally better prospect than Truckers Lodge, but at 4/1 or 9/2 on his first non-Novice chase, he doesn't offer much value, especially after a break of 259 days. Truckers Lodge, however, is far more experienced, has stamina to burn and could well be massively overpriced at the 14/1 offered by Hills.

So, the bet for me, is Truckers Lodge at 14/1 E/W even if he might lose to St Barts.

Of the other three, I've very little between them if I'm honest. They'll all be up with the pace, Run To Milan is proven beyond 3m, Colorado Doc will like the conditions and gets weight from most of the field, whilst One For Rosie already has five wins and two places from ten runs, so there's consistency there. Any of the three could make/miss the frame, but at respective odds of 6/1, 11/2 and 17/2, I'd have to side with the latter if I wanted another E/W bet.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.