Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 4th November 2020

The highlighted Finoah found one too good for him at Redcar this afternoon and I'm writing this piece ahead of the Newcastle race, so that's all I can report on right now, as I'm now looking forward to Wednesday, where the feature of the day is the excellent Trainer Statistics report, a veritable mine of information, whilst the daily free races are as follows...

  • 12.40 Nottingham
  • 2.05 Dundalk
  • 3.00 Lingfield
  • 5.50 Kempton
  • 7.50 Kempton

And as I like the Trainer Statistics report so much, I'll using that as the base for my piece today, focusing on course 1 year handicap form, where Team Crisford stand out as follows...

Five wins from sixteen with two further places is good work, and an IV figure of 3.24 is excellent. The team are very profitable to follow in such contests, so let's look at their two runners for tomorrow...

In the 6.50 race, Roulston Scar is a 4 yr old gelding returning from an unplaced finish 25 days ago to race here in a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ Handicap over 6f worth £12291, whilst the 7.20 race features Myseven, a 3 yr old filly who was also unplaced last time out (28 days ago) and she now tackles a 6-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m4f for a top prize of just over £7,000.

So, both race in 3yo+ handicaps a similar length of time after an unplaced effort and both will be ridden by William Buick. A closer look at the Crisford's recent 5/16 record shows that they are 15 from 51 (29.4% SR) in handicaps here with horses sent off at odds ranging from Evens to 12/1 since the start of 2017, so they've done consistently well and those 51 runners include the following data relevant to both runners here...

  • 8 wins from 29 (27.6%) after an unplaced effort LTO
  • 7 wins from 22 (31.8%) after a break of 16 to 30 days
  • and 1 win from 4 (25%) under jockey William Buick 

As for Class, sex, age and race length, those runners are...

  • 4 from 14 (28.6%, Myseven) at Class 3, but 0 from 2 at Class 2 (Roulston Scar)
  • 10 from 31 (32.3%, RS) from males and 5 from 20 (25%. M7) from females
  • 12 from 37 (32.4%, M7) from 3 yr olds and 1 from 9 (11.1%, RS) from 4 yr olds
  • 3 from 7 (42.9%, M7) over 1m4f and 4 from 10 (40%, RS) over 6f

Nothing massively conclusive there, but on pure data alone, the filly Myseven edges it. Time now, to look at them in more detail starting with Roulston Scar in the 6.50 race...

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The racecard tells us today's jockey William Buick is in decent nick and has a good record at the venue, that our runner has two wins and a place from his last five outings and will run off a mark of 104 today. He has no speed rating, as this is his All-Weather debut and that also affects his T/L/D  numbers, as he has no winning A/W mark to compare, but he did win off 102 two starts ago in another Class 2, 6f handicap when William Buick steered him home despite if being his first run in 359 days.

He's 4 from 7 at this trip in handicaps and is 4 from 5 in 7-10 runner contests. He looks reasonably well drawn here in stall 3 as he does like to get on with it early, but may find some competition for the lead from inside.

He won on his seasonal reappearance (359 days off track), but a combination of Soft ground and only a short 13 day rest probably contributed to him finishing last of 21, some 27 lengths off the pace in the Coral Sprint Trophy at York next/last time out.

No previous A/W run does complicate the issue somewhat, but I'm initially happy to ignore that last run. He won off a long break, back in April 2019, lost second time out then before winning his third start of that campaign, so I'm hopeful he could repeat that feat.

And now to the 7.20 race and Myseven...

Two wins from her last three starts is encouraging, the latest of which was a course and distance success in mid-September. She's 6lb higher than that win and now runs off a mark of 81, which looked too much at Nottingham last time out, although that was over 1m6f and on soft ground, so this looks an easier task on paper at least.

It's hard to really assess what suits her best after just five starts, but she clearly looks better at 1m3.5f/1m4f, where both career wins have come. The pace/draw angle is very interesting here and leaves plenty open to interpretation. The data/stats say they'll all want to hang back, but somebody has to lead. We could get a slow tactical affair, where the race will be taken by a "finisher" or one of the six might just take it on and hope to tough it out.

With that in mind, it might be of interest to read the summary of her two wins, firstly over 1m3.5f at Lingfield "...always prominent, led early, headed over 8f out, pushed along for effort 3f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, stayed on well...", whilst for her C&D win two starts ago "...raced keenly tracking leaders, pushed along in close 2nd 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, pressed briefly inside final furlong, stayed on well and drew away final 100 yards..." , suggesting she might well step forward to try and nick this from the front.

If she responds to the switch back to the A/W, then she could well have a major say here.

Summary

Of the two Crisford/Buick hopefuls here, I do like the filly Myseven slightly more than Roulston Scar. Both will look to bounce back from poor runs in tough conditions on grass, but I think the filly's race is marginally less competitive overall and has fewer runners to contend with.

I can certainly see Myseven making the frame, but much will depend on the favourite Crown Power and how she handles the switch to handicaps. She might not be too badly treated off a mark of 85 after a comfortable win here last time out and as the runner-up and fourth placed horses have both won since (off admittedly much lower marks). Price-wise, I had Myseven as a 3/1 shot behind the favourite, so the market is pretty much in agreement.

Roulston Scar, on the other, hand presents a dilemma, I've got him finishing mid-division at around a 6/1 chance due to a lack of A/W action, but I think he's better than that. He does need to bounce back from a bad defeat at York, but as I said earlier, there were plenty of mitigating circumstances at play. If he runs as well as he was doing pre-York and he handles the surface, then he could quite easily make the frame. In fact he could actually go on and win it, but the ifs and buts prevent me from backing him on this occasion.

 

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