Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 4th November 2021

Thursday's feature of the day is full access for all readers to the Instant Expert tab on the racecards. This is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards.

The reason? It has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

And every Thursday we make this open to all readers for all races, including our free ones, which will be...

  • 12.30 Ludlow
  • 1.12 Sedgefield
  • 1.30 Newbury
  • 4.55 Chelmsford

On paper (or should that be turf/polytrack), the best quality of those 'free' races is the last one with it being a Class 2 contest, but it's also interesting from a feature of the day perspective, as the Instant Expert looks like this...

...for the 4.55 Chelmsford, a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, A/W (Polytrack) handicap over 1m2f worth almost £10k (£9945 to be more exact) and here's the card...

So, all bar Indeed and Lucander have at least one win from their last six races, although the former did win seven starts back. The latter, along with Living Legend & You're Hired all step up from Class 3 here after the last two were LTO winners. All bar Influencer are winners over this 1m2f trip, although he did last win over just 177yds shorter and Indeed, Power of States and Habit Rouge have all won here over today's trip. You're Hired has won at both course and distance, but NOT at the same time.

Habit Rouge hasn't raced for 20 weeks, Influencer has been off for twice as long, but the other five has raced in the last 11 weeks. The handicapper sees this as a closely matched affair with just 7lbs from top to bottom weight, whilst our SR figures have just 6pts between the top three. Plenty of yards and jockeys in good recent and/or longer term course form, but trainer Mark Johnston (Living Legend) and jockey Tom Queally (Indeed) could both do with a bit of a boost.

As for the runners themselves...

Living Legend has won four of his eight starts since a modest fifth of eight on debut just over three years ago. He made all to win by 4.5 lengths over today's trip at Pontefract last time out and comes here boasting a 2 from 2 record on the A/W, albeit from Sept'18 and Mar'19, but he'll find this trickier up 7lbs to a career-high mark of 101 and up in class. That doesn't mean he can't/won't win, but it needs to be considered, as does the yard's run of just 1 winner from 72 prior to Wednesday's racing.

Indeed is 1 from 1 on the A/W from winning here over course and distance in a Class 2 handicap back in June 2019 off 4lbs lower than today. has raced just three times in the last two years and has finished out of the money in all three big-field contests. Fewer rivals here, a drop in weight (2lbs) and a step back up in trip might help him get closer this time.

Power Of States has 6 wins and a place from 10 A/W starts and his 4 wins and a place from six runs here including finishes of 21113 over course and distance, making him one of interest, but he was last home of thirteen at York in his latest race back in August. That said, he's now back down to his last winning mark and faces favoured conditions under an in-form jockey with a good record at this venue...

Lucander is a consistent performer in these lower-prize Class 2 contests, finishing 11132 in five attempts and now seeks to transfer his decent Flat form to the A/W. He has just two previous A/W outings, finishing third on both occasions over 1m at Lingfield and 1m3f at Kempton and has won over a mile and also over half a furlong further than today's race. If bringing that Flat consistency here, he'll have every chance. His jockey is in good nick and gets on well with this yard's runners...

You're Hired has two wins and a place from his last five starts and was a winner here over 1m last time out on his first A/W start in almost a year. He came late on to win by three quarters of a length, staying on well at odds of 25/1. He wouldn't be an obvious one to double up, but the extra distance should favour him (has won at 1m3½f), but he's up 3lbs to a career-high mark, which might be an issue. Place claims nonetheless and his stablemates have been running well...

Influencer has no UK form to consider and aside from a run at Meydan in late January of this year, hasn't raced anywhere since September 2019, but did win the Class 1 Prix du Grand Palais over 1m1f at Longchamp four starts ago back in June 2019. He clearly was a decent horse back then, but he's probably best left watched on his UK debut, unless the money comes for him, I suppose, especially as his yard are 1 from 20 in handicaps here since the start of 2020.

Habit Rouge has a decent record on the A/W with 4 wins and a place from 9 runs including finishing 13214 over course and distance, but was only 4th of 6 here over C&D last time out and he's now effectively 2lbs worse off, suggesting this will be a tough task, but his yard do well here and with those returning from a break...

I posted the overall instant expert figures at the start of the piece and they seemed to favour Habit Rouge, Indeed, Power of States and You're Hired and when we switch to just A/W handicap form...

...that's very much reiterated, albeit off smaller sample sizes, where Power of States' consistency stands out. He's the course expert, I suppose and his best form at this track has come when he has been held up for a run, a tactic that isn't normally best suited for 1m2f handicap here, as the stats actually say that the further forward you run, the better...

...from both a win and place perspective, so his hold up style might not be the best approach here. He's also drawn slap bang in the middle of the seven runners in stall 4  and that might be helpful to his chances, as although there's not a massive draw bias, those in stalls 1-4 have seemed to edge it here of late...

...but when we look at the pace/draw combo heat map, you can see that the pace of the race has a bigger bearing on the outcome than the draw does...

...as the two most favoured combos involve leading and the two worst are both from mid-division. We know how this field have raced in their last four outings and we can then place them onto that heat map in draw order to try and ascertain how they might break out. I should, however, add the caveat that some of them lack A/W experience and might not run as they have on turf, but if they do stick to their usual tactics, then we'd expect something like this to happen...

I've left Influencer out, as I wouldn't really know where to place him, but of the other six pace/draw make-ups, you'd have to say that Living Legend and Indeed will not only set the pace, but are also the best off at the numbers.

Summary

On bare recent results alone, I'd probably look at Living Legend, You're Hired and Habit Rouge. From feature of the day, Instant Expert, we identified Habit Rouge, Indeed, Power of States and You're Hired and from the pace/draw heat map, we has Living Legend and Indeed.

If we simplify it down to who "gets most ticks", then we end up with Habit Rouge, Indeed, Living Legend and You're Hired.

Habit Rouge is good over course and distance and both yard/jockey do well here, but he's been off the track for 20 weeks and that's a worry. Indeed is probably the weakest of my four and hasn't raced much of late and hasn't fared too well when he has turned out, so I'll scratch him now as possibly fourth best. Living Legend would need a career best here up in class and his yard are struggling for winners. You're Hired should appreciate the extra yardage based on how he stayed on LTO and his yard are going well right now. He's also up to a career-high mark, but he's only up 3lbs as opposed to Living Legend's 7lbs and that might just be enough.

This should be a cracking competitive affair, but I'm siding with You're Hired at 5/1 to beat the 3/1 fav Living Legend with hopefully the 11/1 Habit Rouge best of the rest. Betfred are paying three places here and the latter might be worth an E/W poke at 11's.

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2 replies
  1. 10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards
  2. Rambler
    Rambler says:

    Excellent result yesterday Chris – shame Sir Titus could not just get by Raasel. Still 1-2-3 was good from the 4 left in your pot was ideal. Many Thanks

    Reply
    • Chris Worrall
      Chris Worrall says:

      Cheers, Bob, I needed a change of fortune, been scratching about for form of late. Nice winner today, too. Shame we couldn’t get the forecast.

      Reply

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