Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 4th September 2021

Saturday's feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This TJC report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations.

We also have the following free 'races of the day'...

  • 1.15 Haydock
  • 1.30 Kempton
  • 1.55 Stratford
  • 2.20 Haydock
  • 4.00 Thirsk
  • 4.45 Navan

My setting for the TJC report are fairly stringent and don't throw up vast swathes of qualifiers, but I've two showing on the Trainer/Jockey one year report, so we'll have a look at their chances today...

Noble Dynasty runs in a Class 3, 1m, flat handicap for 3 yr olds on good ground worth just over £11k, whilst Runninwild goes in a Class 4, 5f, flat handicap, also for 3 yr olds on good ground, but worth just shy of £4600.

The Appleby/Doyle record of 8 wins from 22 includes of relevance today...

  • 4/12 with 3 yr olds
  • 6/11 at Class 3
  • 3/11 in 3yo races
  • 4/8 over 7f/1m
  • 3/8 on good ground
  • 0/0 at Thirsk

And Noble Dynastry's racecard entry is...

Some impressive stats there and they now team up with this handicap debutant carrying top weight upon his return from a 144-day absence. That length of time off track needn't be an issue, as his previous 3 runs came at intervals of  136 days after debut and then 174 days later, so this is normal for him and he did have one win and two runner-up finishes. An opening mark of 93 does him little favour if truth be told and although there's scope for progression, there's not much room for error after a 7 lengths defeat in this grade LTO.

He's drawn in stall 2, but I'd suggest a higher draw would have been more advantageous here...

...and he has been held-up in two of his three starts, which won't be an advised tactic here...

...and the pace/draw heatmap suggests he'd be better off racing further forward.

*

A hundred minutes later, the Duffield/Gray combination enter the fray with Runninwild and their combined 6 winners from 10 includes...

  • 6/15 over 5/6f
  • 3/10 on good ground
  • 2/6 with 3 yr olds
  • 2/3 in 3yo races
  • 2/3 at Thirsk
  • 0/1 at Class 4

And Runninwild's racecard entry is...

Some more good stats to consider, but the negative of those is that jockey and trainer are 0/15 and 0/12 respectively over the last fortnight and that Shane has ridden just 3 winners from 92 here at Thirsk over the last five years! Runninwild carries bottom weight here off a mark of 71, but that's a 3lb rise after winning by a length over 6f at Carlisle last time out. The fact that he was 50/1 that day suggests it was a surprise and his past form backs that up. Yes, he now has 2 wins from 7, but his other five results are last of 13, 6th of 7, last of 7, 6th of 7 and last of 4. Those defeats have included margins of 33L and 55L, so he's not entirely reliable and now drops in trip to tackle 5f for only the second time (last of 4 previously), he's up in class and weight too.

He's drawn five of eight here, which isn't too bad, as...

...stalls 4 to 6 seem the best place to be, whilst his running style is mixed. He ran prominently last time out and won, but his three previous runs were as a hold-up horse. If he reverts back to being held-up, he's going to struggle from the off...

...but if he gets up with the pace and shifts himself "to the right" on the following heatmap...

...he might well create another surprise, albeit at much shorter odds than his 50/1 triumph last time out.

Summary

This exercise is a useful one, as it tells you that you can't rely on one piece of data alone to formulate a bet. If you follow any of our reports blindly, the odds are that you will lose money. They're not a "tips sheet", they're merely a way into a race for further dissection.

That said, the trainer/jockey stats used here are very good and did indeed make me want to look at the two races more closely, especially the first as it's a Geegeez free race. Now I've looked cloers, I'll not be backing either. Mid-division is where I've got both of them and I've no real strong feeling about either race if I'm honest.

However, if you want to dig into them further, the horses that interested me most were...
4.00 Thirsk : Bowland Park (3/1) / King Triton (10/3) / Far Hope (8/1)
5.40 : Ballintoy Harbour / Havagomecca / Ready Freddie Go (no prices yet)

Good Luck, whatever you decide and I'll be back Sunday afternoon for Monday racing

Chris

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1 reply
  1. 10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards
  2. Rambler
    Rambler says:

    Good piece Chris, many thanks. Like the six picks for a small wager on the Tote for Trifeca & Exacta bets.
    Cheers
    Bob S.

    Reply

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