Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 5th March 2021

My 1-2-3 finished 2-1-3 at Southwell today, so I'm moderately pleased with the result. The Exacta paid £11.80 and the Trifecta was a lovely £55.30, so well done to those of you who have already said they'd got on.

Friday and the weekend now loom large, feature of the day for Friday is the Horses for Courses report, whilst our free races are...

  • 2.00 Lingfield
  • 4.40 Newbury
  • 5.15 Newcastle
  • 5.30 Dundalk
  • 7.45 Newcastle
  • 8.30 Dundalk

My Horses for Courses report only shows two runners for Friday and they're both in the same race, so I think we'll see if either of them might win again tomorrow...

It's an admittedly rare foray into Irish A/W racing for me, but the process should really be the same as usual, starting with their places on the racecard...

Both are former course and distance winners, Togoville is the elder statesman here, both have run in the last three weeks and both are in excellent form. Togoville has a central draw, whilst Major Power is in stall 8 of 8.

Togoville is an 11 yr old now and still shows no sign of slowing down, winning his last three starts, all here at Dundalk : twice over C&D and then dropped down to 6f last time out. he races almost exclusively here nowadays, his last 19 runs have been here and he's actually raced here 54 times to date, making the frame on 26 (48.1%) occasions and going on to win 14 (25.9%) of them.

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Major Power is 5yrs younger and has only raced here on 13 occasions, but has made the frame 9 times (69.2%), winning 4 (30.8%) of them. Like tTogoville, he seems encamped here nowadays with all of his last nine runs coming on this track. he landed a hat-trick of course and distance wins at the start of 2020 and was then a runner-up over 6f, beaten by half a length almost a year ago. He returned to action in late January after 315 days off track and has been a narrowly beaten runner-up in two runs here this year, firstly by 0.75L over C&D and then by half a length over a mile where he had the re-opposing and dangerous Wonder Elzaam a further half length back in third. WE is better off at the weights here today.

Some of their relevant stats are shown here on Instant Expert, but I've some others that may be of interest...

In addition to the above, Togoville's A/W record includes...

  • 14/53 in blinkers, 12/44 going left handed, 7/28 for his current yard
  • 7/27 in races worth 5-10k, 8/18 during February and March, 4/13 over C&D
  • 4/7 under today's jockey and 3/5 as an 11 yr old!

...whilst from Major Power's A/W figures...

  • 4/13 in races worth 5-10k, 4/10 without his tongue tie
  • 4/7 over C&D and 2/5 for today's jockey.

In similar past 8-runner handicap here at Dundalk, there's no real discernible draw bias in my opinion...

...even if stall 8 looks a dreadful place to be. I prefer to look at stall groups, so stalls 7&8 together have four wins, which is as good as any other pairing, whilst Togoville's stall 4 pairs well with both 3 and 5 for four wins. Stalls four to seven look good for places, though.

And once you've got your draw, you have to decide how best to run and Dundalk favours front runners or those as close to the front as they can be...

Our data says that that our two highlighted runners like to get on with it, as shown by their last three runs...

and our pace/draw heat map backs up the assertion that leaders fare best...

and when we overlay the runners from this contest...

...we see that our two are likely to lead the way. Both are in great form and might look to see the opposition off early.

Summary

Both Togoville and Major Power have excellent chances here, even if the latter is on a career-high mark and the former runs off a mark he hasn't seen since winning here over 6f in mid-December 2017. I'd expect them to be setting the pace and they could well run away with it in a 1-2 finish.

The danger is Wonder Elzaam, now much better off at the weight than when half a length behind Major Power two starts ago. he's a lightly raced 4yr old with plenty of miles left in his young legs and provided he doesn't let the front pair get too far, could well have a say in the final shake-up. I'd have hoped for a more in-form jockey on WE to be honest, so I'm going to say that Wonder Elzaam might have to settle for third in my 1-2-3.

So who wins? Wow, I don't know. There's not going to be much in it, I don't think, but if pushed, I'm siding with the old boy Togoville. He has actually won off a mark 4lbs higher than this and although up in weight again after completing the hat-trick, Major Power continues to have his mark increased after three (albeit narrow) defeats.

Thus, it's Togoville / Major Power / Wonder Elzaam for me. No prices available as I went to press the publish button (5.05pm), so it'll be interesting to see the market later.

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2 replies
  1. 10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards
  2. Rambler
    Rambler says:

    Hi Chris – I only got paid £9.04p for the Exacta & 28.82p for the Trifecta on my Tote bets. Is there an explanation for the difference in our returns ?
    Just curious – Many Thanks v.g. day Bob S.

    Reply
  3. Rambler
    Rambler says:

    Chris – Very sorry looked at the wrong return lines ! Shows the benefit of using the Tote over CSF & Tricast. I need to fully wake up before commenting in the future (lol). Great service Bob S.

    Reply

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