Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 5th May 2021

Hump Day is almost here and Wednesday's free feature is the Trainer Stats report, whilst our daily free races are...

  • 1.00 Newton Abbot
  • 2.15 Chester
  • 3.05 Newton Abbot
  • 3.35 Newton Abbot
  • 7.50 Fontwell
  • 8.10 Kempton

I'm going to focus on the Trainer Stats report today, using the course 5 year handicap record of the Geegeez-sponsored Anthony Honeyball yard, who have an excellent record when sending handicappers on the 110-mile or so trip East from the Dorset base to Fontwell Park, as seen below...

Anthony has two runners here today, Windance runs in the 6.20 Fontwell, a 7-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m2f on Good ground, worth £3,159 whilst Bleue Away runs an hour later in the 7.20 Fontwell, a 6-runner Class 4 Handicap Chase for 5yo+ mares over 2m5½f for a first prize of £3,594.

Anthony Honeyball has been on the rise for a while now and he comes here with his horses having won 3 of 12 in the last 30 days and they have run consistently well for many years here at Fontwell, winning 50 of 150 (33.33% SR) since the start of 2008.

I don't want to lean on old data, though, so we'll just consider his record here since the start of 2017 which stands at an even better 25 from 65 (38.5% SR) and these include of relevance today...

  • 15/38 (39.5%) over hurdles
  • 15/35 (42.9%) in mixed sex races
  • 13/29 (44.8%) from female runners
  • 12/26 (46.2%) from runners aged 6 or 7
  • 12/36 (33.3%) from males
  • 11/36 (30.6%) at Class 4
  • 10/31 (32.3%) in handicaps
  • 8/17 (47.1%) in female only races
  • 6/23 (26.1%) with Rex Dingle in the saddle
  • 3/9 (33.3%) during May
  • 3/15 (20%) over fences
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Now to the 6.20 race...

Windance has certainly come on leaps and bounds since being sent out in handicap company, where he is now 2 from 2.

He won a big-field (17 ran) contest over 2m3.5f at Taunton seven weeks ago, pulling clear in the closing stages to win by four lengths. He was then sent out just five days later, upped in class, weight (+7lbs) and trip (+7f) to win here at Fontwell over course and distance, getting up late on to win by a neck despite errors 3 out and 2 out that meant he was still 4 lengths down at the last, but he stayed on strongly to win.

He's up another 6lbs here and probably has little room for error today, but seems to have a massive heart and appetite for the win!

As for the 7.20...

Bleue Away was 2 from 2 in point to point races winning by five lengths over 2 miles and by 30 lengths when stepped up to 2m4f. These runs were in March/April 2019 and her rules debut came in a 31 length defeat when 5th of 12 in a Ffos Las bumper.

Her PTP form suggests she must have some jumping ability, but she hasn't shown us much over hurdles if truth be told, failing to make the frame in four starts so far (7P85), the latest being a 27 length defeat three and a half weeks ago at Plumpton.

She runs here off a mark 4lbs lower than her hurdles mark, but she's really going to have to step up here to get involved, up in both class and trip.

Summary

Of the two, Windance has far the better chance and I actually think he'll finish in the first two home, if not winning. He's currently priced as the 2/1 favourite, which is a little disappointing as (a) I thought he'd be maybe half a point longer and (b) I expected Certainly Red to be a favourite to take on. That said, I've got Windance as the best in the field on my workings, so 2/1 it is.

Bleue Away, however, is right up against it here and if she finishes fouth of the six, she'll have done well. To do any better than that she's going to have to beat Episode, Eyes Right and/or Martha Brae and that's a big ask, so even at 12/1, I'll be leaving her alone.

This doesn't mean Team Honeyball can't land a double on the card, as they've got Credo running on the last race on the card, a mares' bumper. Credo won her sole PTP effort when clear by nine lengths over 3m in mid-November and she backed that up by landing a bumper at Plumpton by 20 lengths on her Rules debut 24 days ago. She's entiteld to come on for the run and although bearing a penalty, could well go in again here at 6/5. Pretty measly odds, for sure, but there's a possible 11/2 double with Windance for those that way inclined.

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