Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 6th November 2020

Friday's feature of the day is the Horses for Courses report, which is exactly as the names suggests, horses who have previously gone well at that track they're running at next, whilst our free racecards cover the following half dozen contests...

  • 1.10 Hexham
  • 1.55 Curragh
  • 2.10 Warwick
  • 5.30 Newcastle
  • 5.45 Dundalk
  • 8.05 Newcastle

My horses for courses report looks like this today...

... Tathmeen and Great Colaci both run in 14-runner handicaps and such large fields hold no interest for me, whilst Little Jo's three wins only contain one in the last 2 years, so I'm not going there either.

That sends me back to the free races and my lack of appetite for the big fields leave me with the 2.10 Warwick : a 9-runner Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over 3m2f (+92yds from advertised) on Good (Good to Soft in places) ground worth £4289 for the winner, whose card looks like this...

The runners with blue numbers next to their name (Billy Bronco, Dentley de Mee, The Toojumpa and Accordingtogino) are of immediate interest to me, as they feature on my query tool report. From a trainer icon (14 30 C1 C5) perspective Billy Bronco, Dentley de Mee and Accordingtogino are positives, as is Antony, whilst Western Climate's yard seems out of form with a current run of 28 losers.

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Thomas Shelby and Accordingtogino appeal from the jockey stats, whilst the Geegeez Speed ratings suggest there's not a great deal between the top five.

The going isn't as bad as it could well have been here, but 3m2f still takes some getting and I'm keen to find runners suited to the trip/class and I'm also interested in those with obvious stamina. The place to find such information is, of course, the Instant Expert tab, where I've used the place tab to give me a bit more data about the runners' chasing prowess...

...and Western Climate / Thomas Shelby are the ones screaming "look at me" here, whilst in this type of  raxce, we're advised that a horse racing is a prominent position would do well, which makes perfect sense as it's not easy to win a 3m2f chase from the front, but easier to be there or thereabouts ready to pick the leader off late on. Numerically, that looks like this...

and our 9 runners have recently been running like this...

...so I'd probably want to be looking at Thomas Shelby, Accordingtogino, The Toojumpa here and possibly Western Climate too.

Now with yesterday's piece, I showed you one way of going through the card to eliminate runners step by step to eventually leave a shortlist of possibles and that approach will either work for your approach or you'd want to do it differently, so here's another way forward. Quite simply, do the above analysis and see which names keep popping up and in this case, it's Thomas Shelby and Accordingtogino, so I'm going to quickly look at their credentials to see if the racecard and its associated data has led me to a bet or not...

Thomas Shelby : is, I suppose an out and out chaser. 0 from 7 in Bumpers/Hurdles contests, but has finished 3P14231 over fences, all at this Class 4 and also has a win and two places from three PTP races over 3m on Good/Good to Soft ground.

31-60 days rest looks his optimal time off the track (2 wins from 3) and he comes here off the back of a very comfortable win over 3m0.5f at Bangor. He's up in trip here, but that run was on Soft ground, so stamina should be fine. He's also up 8lbs for the win, but did come home some 12 lengths clear without really exerting himself. Danseur du Large was back in 3rd (41 lengths adrift) that day, but he has since won over 3m2f at Fontwell a fortnight ago, so that will hopefully frank the form.

Accordingtogino : just his second attempt over fences, although he did win a soft/heavy ground 3m PTP and he probably needed the run when soundly beaten on his chasing bow at Lingfield a fortnight ago.

He was held up on soft ground and eventually trailed home 6th of 8, some 42 lengths off the pace, but as well as being his first crack at fences, it was also his first outing for almost 8 months.

Prior to that, he had made the frame in seven of his eight hurdle starts, including a couple of Class 3 contests. His best efforts have come on Good to Soft or worse, so he'll be praying for rain, I'd assume.

Summary

It's probably easier to start with Accordingtogino, obviously talented over hurdles, but I think he might need another run or two over fences before realising his potential and as this looks a very competitive contest 8/1 looks a bit skinny for me to be interested. If you could get 12/1 for an E/W punt, I'd not dissuade you from having a quid or two, but you do want more than 8's and you don't want big stakes.

As for Thomas Shelby, he's actually the one I like most of all nine runners, but you could make a case for half a dozen of them and he's a 7/2 to 4/1 shot in my books, so Bet365's 9/2 offering looks very tempting. I'll play at that price not just because I like his chances but also because of the perceived value.

It's a race where you'd be forgiven for walking away, mind. it's far too competitive for proper staking in my opinion, but like Matt says in his webinars, we do like an "action bet" ie a couple of quid for interest/entertainment. So, that's where I'm at : a small bet at 9/2 with the obvious caveat that any of half a dozen could win and we could finish 6th!

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4 replies
  1. Blokeshead
    Blokeshead says:

    Well, that was easy – thanks Chris.
    I “only” got 10/1, but I suspect you’re bigger than me, so I won’t complain! ;o)

    Reply
    • Chris Worrall
      Chris Worrall says:

      Often the case, I suppose.

      Happy that I’m able to highlight potential winners, even if my final decision whether to back is flawed. I’m a bit off the mark with my prices, I think. I thought 8/1 was a bit skinny, when it reality it was excellent value. I’d be more concerned if I wasn’t getting close with the highlighted runners.

      Reply
      • Blokeshead
        Blokeshead says:

        I’m finding it fascinating trying to follow your logic and thought processes, and then trying to apply these to my own ideas and strategies. It’s certainly educational.

        One key difference between this and dear old SotD is that nobody (surely?) can read your daily article and then moan because the five minutes (!) of work you put in didn’t generate a huge profit. It must surely be apparent (to all but sincere Trump supporters, perhaps?) that one needs to actually put a lot of work in to get anywhere in this game ….. and that, even then, there are no guarantees.

        I’m very grateful, Chris – thank you.

        Reply

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