Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 5th November 2020

Thursday's feature of the day is the Instant Expert tab on the racecards, often a very quick way of assessing a runner's suitability for the task ahead, whilst our free racecards cover the following half dozen contests...

  • 12.40 Sedgefield
  • 2.00 Newbury
  • 2.15 Sedgefield
  • 4.45 Chelmsford
  • 6.45 Chelmsford
  • 8.30 Kempton

...and I've decided to tackle the 6.45 Chelmsford : a 10-runner, Class 2, A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on polytrack with the winner receiving £11,972, so let's take a look at the racecard in descending Geegeez Speed Rating Order...

...where we see lots of positive green icons, a few red ones and some good speed ratings at the top of the list. Visinari is a lightly raced 3 yr old with no A/W experience, hence no rating.

At this first elimination stage, I'm going to discount just Data Protection so far. He has looked out of sorts lately (a mark of 89 is possibly beyond him) and jockey Nicola Currie is also struggling for form and hasn't performed particularly well here recently either.

The next step is the feature of the day, the Instant Expert tab, which looks like this for our nine runners...

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As with most things here at Geegeez, the above is pretty self explanatory and based on the naked data above, I'm now going to exclude Home Before Dusk (too much red), What's The Story (no green at all) and Morisco/Visinari for a lack of data to work with.

I should at this point make it clear that I'm aware that I might have eradicated the winner already. I'm merely whittling down to see who stands at the end and then I'll decide if I want to back them.

That leaves the IE tab looking like this...

Next up is pace/draw and we have runners drawn in stalls 2,4,6,9 and 10...

...and the draw data tells us that you don't want a high draw in this type of contest, which isn't great news for Assimilation or The Gill Brothers in stalls 9 and 10, but the picture may change when we overlay our horses' running styles onto that draw data in our unique pace/draw heatmap...

...which very quickly leads me to just two of interest here : Red October in stall 2 and Solid Stone in stall 6, so let's dig a little deeper to see if either, both or none are worth backing, starting with Red October, whose form this year of 1010 reeks of inconsistency, but the two defeats were in big-field (18/19 runners) turf handicaps and his overall A/W record is excellent at 211. he is 2 from 2 here at Chelmsford including a win over course and distance the last time he visited (just over 10 weeks ago).

He has finished 3101 at today's trip, he's 2 from 4 going left handed and 2 from 4 in cheekpieces and has won once from two under today's jockey. He does go well in these smaller fields, but has no Class 2 win to date, that said his only previous run in this grade was on turf back in July. An interesting (to me, anyway) stat about him is that since the start of 2016, his trainer, Hugo Palmer is 11 from 40 (27.5% SR & A/E of 1.22) in Class 2-5 handicaps over 7 to 14 furlongs here at Chelmsford with horses sent off in the evens to 9/1 price range. Those winners have generated 17.5pts profit at Industry SP at an ROI of 43.8%.

And now to Solid Stone : an in-form ( 7 top 3 finish in his last 8 starts) 4 yr old gelding who was a winner here over C&D two starts ago and only found one too good for him when dropped back to a mile in the Balmoral handicap at Ascot last time out. That run at Ascot was arguably better than the C&D win the time before and he seems to be still on the up.

He is 4 from 14 (28.6%) to date and that includes 4 wins and 2 places from the six occasions he has been sent off as favourite (as I suspect he might be today), he has 2 wins and a place from 5 over this 1m2f trip, 2 wins and a place from 3 in Class 2 races worth less than £20k and he's 2 from 3 on the All-Weather. His only previous visit to Chelmsford was that C&D success here two starts ago.

He is trained by the evergreen Sir Michael Stoute, who has a fantastic record here since 2015 with his handicappers sent off at 6/1 or shorter winning 24 of 69 (34.8% SR, A/E 1.12) for 11.65pts (+16.9% ROI) profit at ISP and they include (10/21 (47.6%) over this 1m2f C&D, 8/22 (36.4%) at Class 2 and 3/6 (50%) in Class 2 contests at C&D.

Summary

Quite simply, I like them both. I fancy Solid Stone to go on and win, whilst Red October is more than capable of at least making the frame. A quick glance at the market tells me that they're available at 9/4 and 9/1 respectively. Personally I would have liked a little more juice at 5/2 and 10/1, so I suppose it's a case of whether you're OK with taking a 10% cut in expected prices or not.

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6 replies
  1. cpablack
    cpablack says:

    Hi Chris, thanks for this. At what stage did you decide to leave Data Protection out of your analysis?

    Reply
  2. Rambler
    Rambler says:

    For the life of me Chris, I can not see why you are not getting more favourable comments on this new exciting feature. Your research is second to none and the results speak for themselves. This feature is now my first view everyday. Many Thanks Bob S.

    Reply
      • Blokeshead
        Blokeshead says:

        I’m with Bob – it’s excellent, and I for one apologise for not saying so very publicly sooner.

        THANK YOU!

        Reply
      • fatboyjim
        fatboyjim says:

        I’ve only just rejoined Geegeez and I love this Chris, it is both educational and brilliant!

        Reply

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