Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 6th November, 2021

The Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) report is Saturday's offering and it brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations.

Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

In addition to this excellent report, we also have the following 'free' races...

  • 12.15 Naas
  • 2.40 Doncaster
  • 3.20 Aintree
  • 3.28 Chelmsford
  • 4.00 Chelmsford
  • 5.30 Chelmsford

Based on my parameters for my TJC report , I've only one handicap possible for tomorrow...

...and with that being a 23-runner contest, I think I'll leave it well alone and refer back to the free race list.

Naas doesn't really interest me and the Doncaster race is the one featuring Alright Sunshine, which leaves us with a Class 2 contest over the jumps at Liverpool and classes 2, 4 and 6 at Chelmo. The NH race has just six runners, but the Chelmsford Class 2 has only four, so we're off hurdling in the North West and a competitive-looking 6-runner, Class 2, handicap hurdle for 4yo+ horses over 2.5 miles on good to soft ground. The top prize is a shade over £20,800 and it appears on the fixture list as the 3.20 Aintree...

Lisnagar Oscar and If The Cap Fits are both winless in their last five starts, but the other four are 10 from 20 between them. Martello Sky has won four of his last five but now steps up from Class 3, whilst his five rivals all ran at Class 1 (3 x Gr1, 1 x Gr2 and a Gr 3) LTO. All six have won at today's trip, If The Cap fits has also won here at Aintree over 3m½f, whilst both Wilde About Oscar and Summerville Boy are former course and distance winners.

All bar Martello Boy, who won three weeks ago, have been off the track for at least 7 months (10 for Summerville Boy) and the assessor rates the first five on the card as being within just 6lbs of each other, whilst the Geegeez SR figures also suggest this might be tight. The Skeltons (Wilde About Oscar) seem to be the pick of the bunch on course form with Brewin'upastorm leading the way on recent trainer and jockey form.

Brewin'upastorm bears top weight conceding at least 4lbs to the field, but has won four of eight starts in just over two years and is two from three over hurdles this year, having won a C2 hcp and a grade 2 race, both over 2m3½f before ending last term with an 8 length defeat here at Aintree over 2m4½f in a Grade 1 contest. That was a really decent effort and he's down back down in class, his yard & jockey are in decent nick and he should go well again here.

Wilde About Oscar has won four of six over hurdles to date, scoring in back to back C4 Novice events (inc one over C&D) this time last year before going on to land a Listed race and a C2 handicap in the spring. He struggled on his final run of the season, though, when 19th of 22, beaten by 49 lengths here at Aintree over 2m4½f seven months ago. This is easier, of course, but he's 2lbs higher than his last win which only came by three quarters of a length.

If The Cap Fits had a brief dalliance with fences last winter finishing 1232 at trips ranging from 2m5f to 3m4½f, but either side of those races, he has 8 wins and 2 places from 15 starts in bumpers/hurdle contests, winning 6 of 12 over these smaller obstacles, including a Gr 1 success on this very track. Was well beaten in two stayers hurdles at the end of last season, but the drop back in trip should help, he'll like the underfoot conditions and gets on well with his rider.

Lisnagar Oscar is probably the weakest in the field in terms of wins, having won just 3 of 18 starts so far, but he did win the Grade 1 Stayers' Hurdle at last year's Cheltenham Festival (Summerville Boy was fifth, six lengths back). defeats of 15 and 22 lengths followed that, though, before he was second in a soft ground Haydock Gr2 race beaten by just 0.75 lengths. Since then he has fallen at Cheltenham and been beaten here by 14 lengths. He has work to do here and I'm not sure the trip suits him either with 14 of his 18 starts being at 2m7½f to 3m1f.

Summerville Boy won this race last year off the same mark as today and although beaten in his three starts since, they were all at Gr2. That said, he's a dual Gr1 winner including the 2018 Cheltenham Festival Supreme Novice Hurdle and will look to start this season better than how he ended the last. He'll be happier if the expected rain materialises, as his best form is on soft/heavy ground, whilst the small field and his layoff are positives too : he goes well first up and should be a player here.

Martello Sky comes here with the best set of results showing 2 wins and a place from four bumpers and 4 wins from 5 over hurdles. The blot on her hurdles record was a 15 length defeat as 8th of 15 in the Gr2 Dawn Run Mares Novice Hurdle at this year's Cheltenham festival, but she did land a Listed race back at Chelts four weeks later and returned to action after a nine month break to win on handicap debut at Market Rasen three weeks ago. She's up a class and 9lbs for that win, but still gets weight all round. This would be a big step up for her, though and others might be better suited, but she does come from a yard with a great record at middle distances...

Six decent competitors here and whilst I wouldn't want to rule any of them out right now, I think that Martello Sky might not yet be at the level of the others and that Lisnagar Oscar might be weaker still, but we should examine their records under expected conditions first...

Such is the quality of this field under expected conditions, that Instant Expert doesn't highlight a winner or potential winner for us, but it does cast another shadow over the chances of Lisnagar Oscar. He's going to need to produce something special to win here, I think and our pace data tells us that...

...he's quite likely to try and do that from the front of the small field, but with the first four on that chart all having three paces scores of 3 or higher in their last four runs, the suggestion is that it might develop into a bit of a battle. That said, it has paid to be up with the pace in similar events here in the past, as seen below...

As you can see, I've slightly expanded the trip, going and field size parameters to give me more data to work with, but the inference here is that leaders win most often with prominent/mid-div runners filling the frame.

Summary

The fly in the ointment re: pace data is Brewin'upastorm. He's a far better runner than a Class 2 handicapper, has a good season last time around and his yard and jockey are both firing right now. I'd not be surprised if he isn't kept handier here and despite where he is on the pace chart, I want him in my final three, based on horse/trainer/jockey form, if nothing else.

I don't like Lisnagar Oscar's chances here for several reasons, so he's one of the three I'll discard here, which means I've two to pick and two to leave from four, starting with Summerville Boy. He won this race last year off the same mark, is a dual gr1 winner and goes well fresh, so he's definitely in.

Wilde About Oscar ended last season poorly and is now 2lbs higher than a win by just three parts of a length, so that's hardly promising. If The Cap Fits has a superb record over hurdles, but has been plying his trade at longer distances and might find this a little sharp late on, especially if he's towards the rear. Martello Sky might not quite be ready for this level of race, but she's in terrific form right now, gets weight all round and has the benefit of a recent run. Most of her wins might be at lower grades, but winning is a habit, of course.

That brings me to an alphabetical 1-2-3 of Brewin'upastorm, Martello Storm and Summerville Boy. I've already said that Martello Storm probably isn't quite there yet, so she's the one to miss out, but could still make the frame if one of the others falters and at 8/1, might be an E/W tempter for some.

As for my 1-2, I don't have much between them, but Summerville Boy won this last year, his pace profile is more positive and at 7/2 offers more value, so its Summerville Boy / Brewin'upastorm / Martello Storm for me.

 

 

 

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