Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 7th August 2021

Friday's race will go off after I go to press, but Thursday was a really good day for us. I advised Tenaya Canyon at 6/1 and she duly obliged at an SP and with Hills paying four places, I was interested in Autumn Flight (9/1) and Hey Mr (8/1) and they finished 3rd and 4th at 17/2 and 9/2 respectively.

On now to Saturday, where our feature of the day is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) stats report, which brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations.

In addition to free access to the TJC report, all readers are offered our daily races of the day, which are set to be...

  • 3.10 Ascot
  • 3.17 Cork
  • 4.55 Cork
  • 5.05 Lingfield
  • 5.15 Kilbeggan
  • 8.30 Ayr

My settings on the TJC report are fairly strict and as a result haven't generated any possible runners to look at, so I'll revert back to our free races and consider the 3.10 Ascot from the Shergar Cup meeting. It's a Class 3, Flat handicap for 3yr olds, of which there'll be ten of them racing over a mile and a half on good ground aiming to land the £20,656 first prize.

And here are those runners...

On form over the last three runs, the ones catching my eye would include the likes of State of Bliss, Star Caliber, Possible Man and Barn Owl.

I've a negative about Prison Break stepping up two classes, but positives for Contact, Annandale and Harlem Soul dropping down a grade. All have raced in the last five weeks so no fitness/rustiness issues there. We've no previous Ascot winners, but Contact, Harlem Soul and Prison Break have at least won at similar trips.

Barn Owl's yard has the most positive pointers, but Possible Man and Star Caliber also hail from in-form stables, with the latter's jockey also in good nick, as is the rider aboard Harlem Soul.

Previous relevant form is shown on Instant Expert...

...where Contact and Prison Break look best suited by conditions. State of Bliss and Star Caliber have both won on good ground, Possible Man has a Class 3 win, whilst Barn Owl and Harlem Soul have won at the trip, as per the racecard earlier.

We're advised from past data that stalls 5 to 7, possibly 8 are the best places to be for such contests...

...which could bode well for Harlem Soul, Buxted Too, Possible Man and maybe State of Bliss, whilst the pace stats tell us that from a win perspective, hold-up horses fare best of all, whilst leaders do as well as par would suggest...

Mid-division horses make the frame most often, but only convert one from six into actual wins. Based on those pace stats above, this should be more good news for Contact and Buxted Too, confirmed hold up horses, whilst the likes of State of Bliss and Skycutter like to get on with things and Star Caliber led last time out...

The above shows how they've raced in their last three runs, the same three races as I used for my form comparison earlier on. When we combine the pace and draw stats together, the resultant heat map...

...is somewhat unsurprisingly biased towards the mid-drawn runners with once again being either held-up or leading being the preferred method of racing. The above should be fairly self-explanatory and as we already know the draw and running styles of these ten horses, we can make our own heatmap for the race and this is how it looks in draw order...

This would suggest that State of Bliss might well be the pacesetter, but that could be detrimental to his chances here. Buxted Too looks best suited of all, but isn't in the best of form, Contact and Star Caliber are both in light green so are effectively second ranked behind Buxted Too on pace/draw and both of these are in good nick, especially Star Caliber.

Summary

Based on everything I've looked at and discussed here, the two names I'm constantly typing are those of Contact and Star Caliber and I think the race will be between those two. Harlem Soul has been mentioned a few times, but isn't running well. I liked State of Bliss up to the pace/draw heatmap section of the piece, whilst previous Class 3 winner Possible Man is running well and shows up positively on that heatmap and might well challenge State of Bliss for the final place.

So where am I? Well, I like Contact and Star Caliber as my 1-2 in that order. Both are more than capable of winning this, but I think Contact's experience and versatility win give him the edge here. The pair are 6/1 and 9/1, so I'd be looking at a win bet and an E/W bet there, especially if your bookie is paying four places.

And seeing as it is four places on offer, my 3-4 will be Possible Man marginally ahead of State of Bliss. They're currently 11/2 and 8/1 respectively. 8/1 is my my general cut-off for E/W betting, but as I've backed both of my front pair, I'll keep my money in my pocket re: State of Bliss unless he drifts, of course!

PS No apologies for the brief-looking piece today. I was trying to show you how quickly a race can be assessed.

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