Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 7th October 2021

Instant Expert is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards, because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

And every Thursday we make this open to all readers for all races, including our free ones, which for this Thursday, will be...

  • 1.23 Exeter
  • 1.45 Thurles
  • 4.05 Thurles
  • 6.00 Chelmsford

And I'm going to tackle the last of that quartet of races, the 6.00 Chelmsford, which is a 12 runner, Class 5, 3yo+, AW Handicap over 6f on Polytrack worth £3,240...

We've three LTO winners in the field (Araifjan, Libertine Belle and Rebel Redemption), all of whom raced in the past month and I mention that because since the start of 2020 here at Chelmsford, horses who were LTO winners in the previous five weeks have won 48 of 159 Class 4-7 races over 5-7f. That's a strike rate of 30.2% at an A/E of 1.11 and has generated 38.9pts profit at Betfair SP at an ROI of 24%, so those three runners are ones to consider on form.

The first two of that trio also head the Geegeez SR figures, whilst the latter is the standout on trainer/jockey form. The other two to catch my eye from the card are Lilkian and The Cola Kid, as they've both won twice in their last four outings, but I should advise that the latter has no AW form, as you'll now see on 'feature of the day' Instant Expert...

Here Rebel Redemption 'wins the day' with honourable mentions for Araifjan's three ambers in the four our columns, Lilkian's general consistency and also Sir Hector, although all his form has come at Class 6.

We've a fairly big field here with a dozen runners and as such, you'd expect a left handed bend on a short race to have a fairly big impact, so let's check the draw stats...

...and yes, the inference is clear. You can win/place from a high draw, but in terms of draw sectors, the lower you are, the better, whilst when defined by actual starting stalls...

...I'd split the draw in half and suggest that I'd be happiest in stalls 1 to 6 than I would be in 7 to 12, so that favours the likes of Araifjan, Sir Hector and Libertine Belle of those that I mentioned from the card/Instant Expert. That said, it's a pretty speedy 6f here at Chelmsford and there's no point getting the plum draw if you don't make full use of it and by making full use, I mean getting away quickly.

Most people are already aware of a pace bias over short trips here, but they're not always aware of how pronounced it is, but leaders have provided 25.7% of the winners from just 12% of the runners and whilst both prominent and mid-division runners have fared well, their combined IV of 1.12 is only fractionally above half that of leaders, whilst hold up horses just don't fare well at all here. I find it strange that nearly 35% of runners are held up here to be honest...

So, what we essentially want are horses that will set the pace and based on our field's recent outings, this is how they have set about their business...

Once again, the likes of Araifjan, Lilkian and Rebel Redemption are catching the eye and although The Cola Kid has won a couple recently, he's going to struggle here from that position, which is possibly why he has no AW form to speak of.

The dominance of horses that lead is far greater than the actual draw bias from earlier, so the pace/draw heat map is more affected by running style than it is by the draw here, so those that are drawn high can still win if they make a good start, because the turn is actually gentler for them, as they approach it from wider. In a similar way to motor racing, the angle of approach determines how fast you can tackle a bend without veering off a line and if you attack the bend from wider, you can almost slingshot yourself out of it at full speed, hence...

...shows that the actual race tactics will determine where you finish more than the draw will and when we sort our field into draw order and overlay them onto that pace/draw heatmap, we can almost get a helicopter down view of how we think the race might unfold...

...where it looks like Lilkian and Rebel Redemption from wide will hope to tack across towards the bend cutting off Lothian and The Lion King on their way to join Araifjan on the turn and even without discussing any of the runners past performances, I'm already happy/determined that these are the three to focus on.

Summary

I've very quickly worked through the racecard and tools to whittle twelve runners down to three and whilst there's a danger that I may have overlooked a contender, we should remember that I've not only based it on the pace/draw heat map. The three I'm going with (Araifjan, Lilkian & Rebel Redemption) are the ones that keep cropping up is the discussion. The question is more about which of the three will win.

Araifjan has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last seven outings in a run that started with a course and distance win here at a higher grade. His form here reads 2124, he's 1 from 1 under today's jockey and has 3 wins and 4 places from nine Class 4 outings and now drops down to Class 5.

Lilkian has already won three times this year and has finished 1134 in his last four outings. Five of his seven career wins are going left handed, he's also got five polytrack wins including three from six here and his form under today's jockey reads 14113.

Rebel Redemption has won two of his last three starts and has three wins and two places from his last seven. He has a 5lb penalty for a course and distance win here (his second from four attempts) in first-time blinkers (re-applied here) a week ago. All 5 career wins are at this 6f trip, with today's jockey in the saddle for four of them.

Of the three, my preference is for Araifjan at 11/2 ahead of Rebel Redemption at 7/2, whilst Lilkian is currently 15/2. All prices from Hills, who were the only ones showing a market at 4.30pm.

 

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5 replies
  1. 10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards
  2. Rambler
    Rambler says:

    Hi Chris – Instant Expert is my “go to” every morning, great tool. My last four 30 pointers have all won, at decent odds as well. Thanks to all the GG Team – Bob S.

    Reply

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