Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 8th November 2021

Monday's free feature sees us open up the PACE tab to ALL readers for ALL races, including our races of the day, which are...

  • 12.30 Carlisle
  • 3.00 Kempton
  • 3.20 Wolverhampton
  • 4.00 Kempton

...and today's piece takes us to Sunbury on Thames for a competitive-looking, 7-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle on good ground. The prize is a shade under £10k and it appears on your cards as the 3.00 Kempton...

Calva D'Auge has an impressive six wins and a runner-up finish from ten starts over hurdles, including three wins from three in the last twelve months. He hasn't been seen for seven months since winning over 3m at Taunton and now steps up in class and weight (+4lbs), but does step back 3f in trip. If ready to go fresh, has to be in consideration and offspring of Air Chief Marshal have the following impressive stats...

Stoners Choice has four wins and two places from six hurdles runs, but it has to be said that virtually of his form has come at Class 4, although he did win a Class 3 contest two starts ago. He's 4lbs higher than that run and in a tougher race and for a horse that tends to make jumping errors, this might well be too tough.

Boreham Bill might have a strike rate anywhere that of the two runners above, but he did win the Listed Lanzarote Hurdle here over course and distance in January. He's also had the benefit of a recent run at Aintree just fifteen days ago and although only 6th of 7 that day, he was beaten by less than 6 lengths and was only headed before the last hurdle as his rustiness began to take effect. Should come on for the run, he's eased 2lbs in the weights and both his jockey and trainer have good records here...

Press Your Luck won both of his first two efforts over hurdles, around this time last year and although not quite reaching those heights again since, has generally ran well in better races than those Class 4 contests he won. He was second in a Class 2 handicap at Newbury off a mark of 129 in March and suffered the same fate at Fontwell off 130 just over five weeks ago. A consistent sort on an unchanged mark and has raced recently, should go well here again.

Annsam won a pair of Class 3 handicap hurdles around the turn of 2019/20 and also won a Class 3 chase by a big margin two starts ago. Last seen pulled up in a Listed chase after a series of jumping errors, he's now back over hurdles 12lbs and one class higher than his last run/win in this sphere after eight months off. A watching brief, I'd guess, but his jockey rides the track well...

Umndeni won at this grade/distance by some ten lengths two starts ago and on the evidence of that run alone, you'd be interested in him, but he's now 6lbs higher and that win was his only success in his last 11 races since winning at Taunton in April 2019. He's generally there or thereabouts , but does usually find one or two just too good for him and I fear that'll be the case again here.

Jersey Wonder won back-to-back Class 4 and Class 3 handicap hurdles in the spring off marks of 114 and 120, but was then beaten by almost 20 lengths on his class 2 bow (off 128). He returned from a lay-off to run 6th of 14 at Cheltenham a month ago, beaten by just over 9 lengths and should improve for having had that run. He's down in trip by 3f and eased a pound in the weights, so he could be involved here, but I think he's want the ground a bit firmer/quicker, but both yard & rider have done well here in the past and the stable are very good at these middle distances...

This field have an impressive collective 27.9% strike rate (31 wins from 111), but Instant Expert will tell us how many of those wins are relevant to the task in hand here today...

So, only Boreham Bill has raced here previously, finishing third and first in two efforts over C&D (won a Listed race), so he's the clear pick on course form, but the ground and class are against him. Calva D'Auge is probably the standout overall and at just 4lbs higher than his last win, must be one to consider here. Annsam looks to be too high off 130, 12lbs above his last win, although he does get the trip readily. Umndeni looks vulnerable from both a going and distance perspective, whilst off limited races, Press Your Luck is all red.

The pace of the contest ie race tactics might well make the difference amongst a group of horses with plenty of wins under their belts and the ace stats for similar contests are...

...suggesting that mid-division runners are slightly ahead of those who lead from a win perspective and only marginally second best on place stats to hold-up horses, so I'd probably want to b on one that is waited with but not too far out the back to still make a late run and data from these horses' last four outings...

...suggests this should go at a fairly brisk pace with four of them looking to take the race on. Boreham Bill looks like bringing up the rear in the opening stages at least and if the pacemakers go at each other too hard, hen he could well find himself picking his way through the pack in the closing stages.

Summary

To me, it looks like a four-way go for the lead and of those four, I like Calva D'Auge best based on both stats and breeding, but he is in danger of getting embroiled in a battle early doors and I fancy Boreham Bill to come through late on and assume control. Best of the rest might well be Press Your Luck, who looks like he'll be kept handy without getting involved in the skirmishes up front.

In truth, most of these could win this or make the frame, there's only really Annsam & Umndeni that I'm not keen on, but I'm going with Boreham Bill at 9/2 to beat the 3/1 fav calva D'Auge with hopefully another 9/2 shot, Press Your Luck, the best of the rest.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

Your first 30 days for just £1
1 reply
  1. 10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards
  2. Everyone calls me Paul
    Everyone calls me Paul says:

    Re Umndeni, have a look at Hobbs runners, Nov and Dec, second time out within the last 3 months, NH flat hurdles and chases.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.