Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 9th February 2021

Nothing to discuss from today, as our previewed race fell foul of the weather, so I'll move swiftly to Tuesday, where the feature of the day is The Shortlist and our free races of the day are...

  • 3.30 Taunton
  • 5.45 Southwell
  • 7.45 Southwell

The Shortlist has just one runner with a perfect score of 15 and that horse runs in one of our featured races of the day, so let's take a look at the chances of...

who runs in the...

On recent form, you'd have to put Arabian King behind Mukha Magic, Nicks Not Wonder and Mr Carbonator, although  he's dropping down two classes here, as is Mukha Magic. He's a former course and distance winner, but so is Mukha Magic and Mr Carbonator, whilst the other three runners have all tasted success over this mile and a half trip.

Arabian King's jockey, Kieran Shoemark has a decent record here winning 5 of 22 (22.7%) since the start of 2020, including 4/15 (26.7%) in handicaps, but he looks out of form right now with just one winner in his last 27 outings.

The Geegeez speed ratings have Arabian King down as the worst runner here and even though he scores a maximum on the shortlist report, Instant Expert says that he's not going to have it all his own way and that he's not the only one with a good profile for this contest. A picture says far more than words can, so here's IE...

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As you can see, Mukha Magic almost matches Arabian King on race suitability and he gets to race off the same mark as his last win (a 6.5 lengths success over this C&D last March) whilst Arabian King is still 5lbs higher than when winning here over a furlong shorter on Valentine's Day last year.

So, we've five horses ranked higher on the Geegeez ratings, three higher on form, an out of sorts jockey and an Instant Expert profile that doesn't actually make him much (if any) better than Mukha Magic.

Maybe the draw, race pace and the pace/draw heatmap will project him in a better light. He's drawn in stall 3, which unfortunately hasn't been a happy starting place in the last 52 similar contests

Hopefully the pace of the race will suit him?

Or maybe not, I'm afraid. From the pace/draw heatmap, you could argue that he looks the worst there.

Arabian King was last home of five over course and distance last time out, beaten by more than fifteen lengths and hasn't really run well since winning here almost a year ago. he does drop down two classes, bit a mark of 75 seems steep

Be Fair was beaten by almost ten lengths when finishing mid-division at Kempton at today's class / trip. It was admittedly his first A/W run for almost 10 months and his previous A/W form stood at 31131, all in handicaps over this 1m4f trip. He should go well having had the run but others make more appeal.

Mr Carbonator is in good nick, mind, winning two of his last four and finishing as a runner-up in one of them. He likes it here a Southwell, which is just as well, considering this will be his 20th visit to Southwell. A prolific placer here (11 times from 19 = 57.9%), but doesn't win often enough.

Mukha Magic is on a 12-race losing streak since winning here over course, class and distance off today's mark and although well beaten here by 9.5 lengths over C&D last time out, he does now drop two classes and with a 2lb drop in his mark allied to a 5lb jockey claim, this should be easier and he'll hope to improve upon his Southwell form that reads 11123, all over course and distance.

Nicks Not Wonder is a lightly raced 4 yr old, but has a win and two places from four starts, all on A/W, but he's never been to Southwell. He won a big-field (14 ran) handicap at this class and trip at Kempton last time out, clear by 2.5 lengths at the finish despite not having raced for a year. He's now some 6lbs higher here, but should come on for having had a run.

Siavash was a winner on debut over 8.5f at Wolverhampton but has struggled in his five races since, beating just 7 of his 42 opponents and finishing a combined 86 lengths behind the five winners. He's up in trip by a couple of furlongs today, but I don't expect that to change the result. In fact he might lose by more than usual!

Summary

Do I fancy Arabian King? Not at all, sadly. I see the race as being a tight affair between three horses, with the other three also closely matched with each other someway short of the standards of the primary group.

Arabian King, Be Fair and Siavash are the three about who you'd need courage and deep pockets to back, whilst I have little between the likes of Mr Carbonator, Mukha Magic and Nicks Not Wonder for the win with the last two looking better than the former.

We're not getting rich here, though. Both Mukha Magic and Nicks Not Wonder are 2/1 jt favs and both have enough uncertainties about them to put me off at those prices. However, I do believe they'll be the first two home, so I'll play a small reverse forecast for some interest.

 

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2 replies
  1. 10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards
  2. acranea
    acranea says:

    I think I might finally be getting the hang of this column !

    I don’t have very many ‘golden rules’ when it comes to betting as they tend to narrow your thinking. But one I DO have is never ever, ever, EVER back a horse on it’s first run at Southwell.

    So I was going to leave this alone as Mukha Magic was too short for my liking. But as you flagged up Mr Carbonator in the top 3 & I couldn’t have Nicks Not Wonder I went for the forecast.
    A nice earner from my only bet of the day so cheers for that.

    Reply
    • Chris Worrall
      Chris Worrall says:

      Good work there.
      Yes, the aim is to flag up those likely to go well using the toolkit etc.
      If I can get two placers from a three-horse shortlist, then I’m happy.

      The pace heatmap called the runner-up as trying to lead with the eventual winner sat in behind.

      Reply

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