Racing Insights

Racing Insights, 9th September 2021

Thursday is Instant Expert day, when we open up the colour coded form overview of every horse to every reader for every race including our free races of the day, which are...

  • 1.50 Epsom
  • 2.40 Doncaster
  • 4.05 Chepstow
  • 4.55 Chelmsford

Unsurprisingly, the Doncaster card has the best quality racing on Thursday and our free race is the May Hill Stakes, a Group 2 contest for 2 yr old fillies. The trip is a mile on good to firm ground and these seven female juvies will bid for the top prize of almost £63,800 in the 2.40 Doncaster...

Insipral is 2 from 2 and Speak is 1 from 1 and the other five have all won a race too. In fact, all bar Prosperous Voyage and Renaissance won last time out. That pair along with Inspiral all raced in Class 1 company last time out, but the other four are all making the big step up from Class 4 here. all seven have raced in the last seven weeks with Banshee & Prosperous Voyage having less than two weeks off. Speak doesn't have a handicap mark yet, but if this was a handicap then Inspiral is at least 7lbs well in at the weights (ahead of Prosperous Voyage) and rated some 29lbs better than Banshee! Our Geegeez Sr figures have Inspiral well clear too.

Banshee & Speak are the only previous winners over a mile, but they're also the only ones to have tackled this trip so far. The form yards are those represented by Inspiral, Kawida & Prosperous Voyage and all have good track records too, as does the handler of Speak. The for jockeys are on Banshee, Speak & Inspiral and the latter's jockey has done well here at Doncaster previously as have the riders of Prosperous Voyage and Renaissance.

The name cropping up all the time so far is the 2 from 2 Inspiral, already the early favourite for next year's 1,000 Guineas and expected to be a red-hot favourite here. You can already see from above why she's fancied, but the shorter she goes, the more chance we have of finding a decent priced placer, so lets start at the top of the card with...

Banshee, who was 3rd, 4th and 3rd in three 11/12 runner fields before scoring next/last time out at Yarmouth, winning a three-runner, Class 4 handicap over today's 1m trip by two lengths. The runner-up has since finished last of six in another C4, 1m, nursery, so Banshee's win might not be much to write home about. This is far tougher.

Inspiral we've already mentioned several times and she comes here after wins at the end of both June and July, firstly in a Class 4, 7f maiden at Newmarket and then she landed a Listed contest (also over 7f) by 3.5 lengths at Sandown when partnered by today's jockey for the first time. The runner-up that day has been a runner-up in a Group 3, beaten by just a length, so that suggests Inspiral really might be something decent.

Kawida hit the crossbar on her first two starts going down by 1.25 lengths and 0.5 lengths in a pair of Class 4 7f Novice races before winning at Haydock just over a month ago. That was another Class 4, 7f affair and she stayed on well on soft ground to take control late into a 1.5 length success. She's probably got more to give and breeding suggests a mile will suit her, so could be involved late on.

Prosperous Voyage looks a progressive type and was a winner of a Class 4, 7f maiden at Epsom in July before going down by just half a length to a very well bred 5/4 fav at Chester at the start of August. She bounced back four weeks alter at Goodwood finishing third in a Group 3 contest, beaten by little more than a length and a half and on that form, she's probably Inspiral's main threat.

Renaissance also ran in a Group 3 race last time out, but was last home of ten, beaten by 16 lengths at Newmarket and although she'd won her previous race her two other outings have seen her finish 6th of 11 and 6th of 9 at Class 5, so I'd suggest this would be beyond her today.

Rolling The Dice was a two-lengths winner of a Class4, 7f maiden at Newbury last time out, just a fortnight after finishing 7th of 8 and over 30 lengths off the winner in a similar contest at Epsom. So, I'm not sure which run is the one to trust and she could go well again here, but the step up from C4 to Gr2 is huge.

Speak has only raced once and that was on the A/W at Kempton where she won a Class 4 maiden over today's 1m trip by 1.75 lengths. The runner-up has since reappeared to win over the same track/trip, albeit at Class 5. Speak clearly has the potential to improve, but on turf debut might be better off just watched, although...

With regards to Instant Expert, only Banshee has raced over 1m on turf (and she won), so I've chosen to look at 7f form today...

Again Inspiral is the standout here, Speak has no turf form and PV's Class 1 defeat was that decent third place in a Group 3 last time out. She has the lowest draw here, but we'll need to check the past stats to see if that's an advantage or not and after clicking the draw tab, I'd say that stall 1 was as good as any...

...and if I wanted to suggest where might not be great, stall 4 does leap out and the PRB3 scores suggest stalls 3 to 5 might be slightly less advantageous, but not massively so.  Essentially on a 1m straight here at Doncaster, it'll be more about ability, application and race tactics. The inference about tactics here is that it's best to lead and if you're not a natural pacesetter then sit at the back and bide your time...

Prominent runners seem to hold on to their position, but struggle to convert places into wins and the mid-div stats are too small to be considered accurate in my opinion. As you're probably all well aware, there's a correlation between pace and draw and that's different for every race. Here, it looks like this...

with the optimal combos being low drawn leaders, high drawn leaders then high drawn hold-ups. Using our runners in stalls 1 and 7 as examples, then Prosperous Voyage (#1) would want to lead and Renaiissance (#7) would need to be either a leader or a hold-up horse. As we log the running styles of each horse, we already know how they've ran in the past. Of course, this is no guarantee as to how they'll run here, but at least we have something to base a decision upon.

What we actually see is that Prosperous Voyage has been held up in her last two outings, but won from a prominent position three starts ago. Her latest effort was her best to date and that came from a hold-up position, so I doubt she'll want to lead here...

...whilst Renaissance has two shots at a decent pace/draw make-up but sadly is neither really a leader or a hold-up horse. He was held up on debut, but that was a poor run and he was awkward away from the stalls, so he might not actually have been held-up on purpose. What we can do is to use those average pace scores on the right and slot the horses into that pace/draw heat map as follows...

This is based on their two most recent outings and I think Banshee might well be the one to set the pace, as she has in her last two, which have been her best runs. Kawida and possibly Speak look set to give her some early company. The two I liked initially, Prosperous Voyage and Inspiral have both been waited with on their last two runs and that put both of them in the frame at Class 1 last time out, so that could work for them here, we've only seven runners on a nice wide strip of turf and these two will only have five to pass.

Summary

To be brutally honest, I don't think it matters where Inspiral is drawn and what running position she adopts, she should simply be too good for the others. Prosperous Voyage looks like she'll race in a similar area to the favourite and could get towed along late on into the frame, plus her run last time out is probably the next best piece of form after Inspiral's win, so that's my 1-2.

Prosperous Voyage is actually 15/2 in places, so we're approaching E/W territory or you could go on the place market or the without the fav option. Forecasts, too, of course! Of the rest, I don't know enough about Speak, but she could be an improver, whilst I'd probably side with Kawida as my third here, she'll show early pace and she's bred for a mile. She's also 25/1 in places, so might be an alternative E/W or place option.

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