Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 03/06/22

Friday's free feature is the Horses for Courses (H4C) report, whilst our free races are...

  • 1.50 Market Rasen
  • 3.10 Epsom
  • 3.35 Market Rasen
  • 6.11 Tramore
  • 6.27 Goodwood
  • 6.55 Bath

The H4C report does pretty much what you'd expect and shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. As with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

And my own settings for the H4C report...

...have produced three horses of initial interest...

The two Epsom runners are in tricky big-field contests, so I'm going to look at Airshow, who goes in the 6.20 Bath, an 8-runner (good for E/W bettors), Class 4 , 3yo+, flat sprint handicap over a left handed 5f on good to firm  (good in places) ground...

Airshow's recent results have been good and was only beaten by a neck at Catterick a week ago, but is actually eased a pound by the assessor, which might prove vital. His appearance on the H4C report shows he likes it here and has previously won over course and distance. The stats say that Messrs Millman and Coakley have a good record together at this track, the yard does well with horses turned back out quickly and the jockey is in good form.

The Blue 1 on the card tells me that this horse is on one of my query tool "systems", namely to look at Rod Millman's Bath handicappers sent off shorter than 8/1, because they are 22 from 99 (22.22% SR) since the start of the 2014 season and 9 from 32 (28.1% SR) since the start of 2020.

As for Airshow himself, this 7 yr old gelding's handicap figures here at Bath read 8211412, all over 5/5.5f, including...

  • 112 over this 5f course and distance
  • 21141 under jockey Ross Coakley
  • and two wins from two under Ross Coakley over C&D

Airshow already has three wins and four runner-up finishes from eleven starts this year and recent defeats by just 0.75 lengths and then a neck show that he's still good nick and off a workable mark. It's fair to say that his best turf form comes here at Bath (h'e actually even better on the A/W at Kempton), so Instant Expert might not show his overall stats in as good a light as his Bath form...

Nevertheless, a line of amber and green is decent enough to retain my interest. He's drawn in stall 4 of 9, which whilst not ideal, isn't disastrous...

...and the pace stats for similar races favour front-runners, but they're not the be all and end all, yu just don't want to be on a hold-up horse and Airshow certainly isn't one of those...

In fact, his pace score of 13 is the joint highest in this race, so there's every chance that he'll be setting the pace here, which according to our pace/draw heatmap represents his best chance of winning from his draw position...

Summary

Airshow likes Bath, especially the 5f trip. He likes his jockey and his yard/jockey do well here. He's got a decent enough draw and the ideal pace profile and there's lot to like about him here, so I think he'd be a decent shout at 5/1

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