Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 04/02/22

The Horses For Courses (H4C) report is your free Friday feature and it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track they'll be running at today/tomorrow. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion. As well as the race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is also a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

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And here's how my personalised H4C Report looks for Friday...

We supplement this free feature with full access to the following races of the day...

  • 1.20 Chepstow
  • 2.35 Catterick
  • 5.30 Dundalk
  • 6.45 Newcastle

I didn't really fancy any of the 'free' races, so I thought I'd take a look at the two UK runners from my H4C report, starting with Soyounique in the 1.40 Lingfield, but he fulfilled an earlier entry at Chelmsford this afternoon, finishing third, beaten by a length. All of which renders quite a bit of my afternoon's efforts redundant and leaves me/us with just Imperial Command, who runs in the 6.15 Newcastle, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight mile on standard to slow tapeta...

The first thing I should say here is that he's up against a really short-priced favourite and may well be in a 5-runner contest to finish second, but that's OK as we can play the place/forecast markets as well.

Imperial Command's record here at Newcastle reads 1711922 and these include...

  • 11922 under today's jockey
  • 71122 over this trip
  • 1122 under today's jockey over this trip
  • 922 at Class 3 (all with this jockey)
  • 22 at this class/trip (both with today's jockey)

He was a runner-up last time out, beaten by three quarters of a length here over course and distance a month ago. He was beaten that day by the re-opposing Star Shield, but he'll be 2lbs better off here and that could well be enough to overturn the deficit if he's on his A-game. That said, he's still 3lbs above his highest winning mark. He's drawn in stall 5 and whilst there's probably not a massive draw bias over a straight mile, the chances of making the frame do seem to diminish the further away from the rail you're berthed...

...which is better news for Star Shield (stall 1) than it is for Imperial Command, who tends to run prominently...

...which isn't a bad place to make the frame from, based on the stats...

...but not as good as mid-division or hold-up runners and Imperial Command's victor from LTO, Star Shield tends to to be either held up or runs in mid-division. Imperial's lot isn't helped either by the fact that his average pace score of 2.75 is actually the highest in the race and he might well end up setting the tempo, which isn't conducive to getting placed here.

Summary

Fairly brief today (the work was done, but not able to be used) with just one runner of interest and sadly I don't see Imperial Command making the frame today. I'm sure he'll give his best, but he's on too high a mark for me and he might end up leading, making himself a target for the pack. Star Shield beat him last time and he's probably a safer bet here. Tyrrhenian Shield is the 2/5 favourite and whilst I fancy him to win, I'm not sure he should be that short.

I'm going to go for the forecasts here with Tyrrhenian Shield to beat Star Shield and also for the fav to beat Keyser Soze. I have very little between the two vying for the runner-up spot and I'd not dissuade you from taking either as E/W bets at 7/1 and 17/2 respectively. Perhaps place only might work too.

 

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