Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 05/08/22

Friday's free feature is the Horses for Courses (H4C) report, whilst our selection of free racecards will cover...

  • 2.00 Thirsk
  • 2.30 Thirsk
  • 2.50 Brighton
  • 3.40 Musselburgh
  • 7.00 Wexford
  • 7.10 Newmarket

The Horses For Courses (H4C) report shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. As with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

My chosen settings for the H4C report have only generated one possible runner of interest...

...so I'm heading back to the free races for a look at the 3.40 Musselburgh, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right handed 7f on good ground...

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Abduction is our sole LTO winner, but all bar Manigordo and Higher Kingdom (who looks the worst on form figures) have won at least one of their last six runs. We've no class movers, no yard or handicap debuts and no new equipment to discuss either.

All seven have won at today's trip before, Gometra Ginty and Ramon di Loria have both done it here at Musselburgh, whilst Merricourt has won here over a mile. All have raced in the last four weeks or so with Ramon di Loria turned back out after less than a week's rest.

BRAZEN BOLT is a useful sort, probably better on the A/W at Newcastle, but has made the frame in 8 of 11 on the Flat and on at Ayr two starts back. Was 3rd of 11 at York last time out and is effectively a pound better off here. Should be there or thereabouts for a yard in decent nick.

ABDUCTION won over 7f at Catterick last time out taking advantage of a mark that had fallen from 86 to 73 in eleven months to help him secure a first Flat win at the thirteenth attempt. This is tougher up 4lbs, but there's a stack of stats supporting his follow-up bid.

GOMETRA GINTY has a 9 from 35 record on the Flat which isn't bad, but that becomes 5 from 17 here at Musselburgh over 7f/1m suggesting this is her preferred destination. She won this very race last year and comes here after only being beaten by two lengths last time out behind Abduction (above), but GG is now 4lbs better off.

MANIGORDO has won just 2 of 32 on the Flat and last won at Thirsk in April 2021. Since then he has been beaten twenty times and I fully expect that run to be 21.

HIGHER KINGDOM won twice on the A/W inside his first three career starts, but is now winless since then, a run stretching back almost two years with just two placed efforts from ten starts. Defeat 11 is on the way, even if the yard have had some joy here previously.

RAMON DI LORIA has been knocking on the door for a while before winning here over course and distance just over a fortnight ago, but couldn't back it up at Hamilton 11 days later when third of nine. That sais, he was up in class, up three pounds and unsuited by a sharp 6f, as he dropped in trip, yet was still only a neck and a head away from winning. Every chance here off the same mark and back up at 7f under a jockey in good recent touch.

MERRICOURT is one of those horses the market never seems to like, having been sent off at 8/1 or longer in 23 of his 34 starts, but comes here in decent form with a win and two runner-up finishes from his last four races. He was only ¾ of a length behind Brazen Bolt LTO, but off the same mark here, he's effectively a pound worse off with the winner, making this a tough ask.

At this point, I'm considering a Ramon di Loria / Abduction / Brazen Bolt vs the field split as the best way to go, but let's check the toolkit, starting with Instant Expert...

...which gives me more confidence about my trio. Manigordo and Higher Kingdom certainly look the least well suited here and Merricourt's numbers are great either. Of my trio, just a slight doubt about Brazen Bolt's 1 from 7 at this trip, but he does have 2 wins and 6 further places from 11 overall at 6/7f on turf and has finished 23111 in his last five 7f runs on the AW, so that allays my distance fears somewhat. Quick note re : Gometra Ginty, he really loves it here and that's a good line of data above, so he could be a contender too.

There's no huge draw bias here...

...suggesting that running style/tactics aka "pace" will decide the contest and what we're looking for is...

...a horse that will lead or run prominently at the very least and based on their recent efforts...

...we're still with my first pick Ramon di Loria and his pace/draw makeup is also the best on our unique heatmap...

...but Abduction will certainly be up there too.

Summary

Quite early on, I decided/stated that my chosen trip vs the field would be Ramon di Loria / Abduction / Brazen Bolt and I still think that my first two named will be the first two home. Brazen Bolt's place in the first three home is challenged most by track specialist Gometra Ginty in what is effectively a 4-runner race. There might not be too much between BB and GG, but the latter's 15/2 ticket is far more appealing than the former's best offer of 7/2, especially with her track record and it being Horses for Courses day!

As for my preferred option Ramon di Loria, Bet365's 9/2 odds look generous, so I'll have a piece of that.

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