Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 06/05/22

The Horses for Courses (H4C) report is the Friday free Geegeez GOLD feature and it does pretty much what the name would suggest and shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. As with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

My settings for the H4C report...

...have generated two runners of interest...

...and I'll be busy, because I've also got the following free race cards to aim at...

  • 2.50 Ascot
  • 3.15 Chester
  • 3.45 Chester
  • 5.30 Cork
  • 7.15 Ripon
  • 8.26 Wolverhampton

Those races aren't screaming out to mw right now, so I'm going to take a look at my two  qualifiers, starting with Revich, who runs in the 1.30 Chester, an 11-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left handed 7½f on good to soft ground...

As you can see from the card, he won his last start of the previous campaign (Class 2, 7f, Ayr) in mid-September, but was unplaced next/last time out. He was actually 15th of 22 at Doncaster in late March on his comeback from a 189 day absence, so he probably needed the run and it was the Lincoln, but he should strip fitter for having had it. In-form jockey Harry Davies takes a valuable 7lbs off here too, which has to help.

He's a former course and distance winner, the green icons suggest that both trainer and jockey are in good form and the latter's success is verified in the stat box which also reminds us of Revich's record at this track. I've added the trainers stats here too...

His overall record in similar flat handicaps shows a little deficiency at this level, as his best form has come in poorer races, but he still has some good numbers to back him up...

Revich's form here at Chester reads 153114237 including 2 wins and a place from four runs at the slightly shorter 7f trip and results of 1423 over today's 7½f course and distance. He is drawn is stall 1 and much is made about the rail draw here at Chester and in previous races over a similar trip/conditions etc...

...there's definitely more than a suggestion that the lower you're drawn the better. To go with those draw stats, we can also assess the pace for those 30 races above...

...and these essentially say that you generally need to be on the front end here at Chester over this type of trip. We appreciate however, that it's not always possible for all runners to race prominently, especially if they're not suited by the draw, which is where we feel that a pace/draw correlation is handy to see and for these races, it looks like this...

...which essentially tells Revich's team not to hang back with him, but otherwise he's got his best chance from stall 1. Unfortunately, Revich's recent defeat was indeed from a prominent position, but his win two starts ago was from a hold-up approach...

...had they been the other way around, I'd have been all over him, but I'm not as bullish now as I thought I might end up being!

I'm going to give Revich a bit more thought, whilst I consider the claims of Mark's Choice in the 6.45 Ripon, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

He was eighth of nine, beaten by thirteen lengths on his seasonal reappearance over this track and trip three weeks ago, weakening late on after a 201-day absence. He had previously won two of his last four runs of the 2021 campaign, both here at Ripon over 6f (Class 2) and then over 5f at Class 4, which raised his mark to 82. He's still on 82, but has a 5lb claimer on board today, which should help. Overall in similar flat handicaps his numbers are...

...which are decent enough, especially at Class 4 and are arguably the best of the nine runners entered here. He has won 8 of his 37 starts to date and side from those numbers above has 4 wins and 3 places from just 10 efforts over course and distance, but has plenty more to find here after being well beaten behind the re-opposing Fortamour today. He runs off a mark of 82 here and the stats above don't tell you that he's 0 from 11 in flat handicaps off 81 or higher, so a career best is needed technically, although we do have a jockey claim to consider.

He's drawn slap bang in the middle as 5 of 9, but the stats do suggest that a lower draw would have been more advantageous...

...as this is compounded by the fact that his usual hold-up style of running...

...hasn't been too successful here under today's expected conditions...

...data backed up by the heat map, which suggests that getting out quickly and setting the pace (as he used to do in years gone by) would be his best chance from that middle draw...

Summary

Two runners with excellent previous course records. One is easy for me to judge, one not so. In which case, let's do the easy bit first and declare that I'm not keen on the chances of Mark's Choice here. He has too much to make up with 4/1 favourite and likely winner Fortamour for my liking and I doubt he'll even make the frame when the likes of Shallow Hal amongst others are on the scene, so it's a no from me.

Revich, on the other hand, is a different kettle of fish and I think he might go really well. He's got a good draw, but might need to address his tactics a little better, he's a good overall record and I'm almost really keen on him, but I don't see him beating the 4/1 fav Boardman and at 5/1 himself, there's not enough juice for an E/W bet, so I won't be on Revich either, sadly.

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