Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 07/01/22

Friday is Horses for Courses (H4C) day at Geegeez, where we open up the report that shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion. As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

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Here's how my H4C report looks (you can, of course, use different parameters) for this Friday...

...and to complement the H4C report, we also have our usual selection of full free racecards...

  • 1.05 Lingfield
  • 1.25 Wetherby
  • 3.45 Dundalk
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

Cafe Sydney looks dreadfully out of form and I'm not a fan of Dundalk races, so we'll switch to the free list and take in West Yorkshire's NH meeting for the 1.25 Wetherby, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+, soft ground, handicap hurdle over 3m1f (3m plus an extra 1f for rail movements). They'll go left handed and take thirteen hurdles in quest of a £4,847 payout and here's the card...

Bottom weight Blazer is 11 yrs old now, has only won 2 of 33 starts and has lost each of his last 24 races stretching back to the end of May 2017, making the frame just four times. I can't see him doing anything here, so I'm discarding him immediately. Of the rest...

FORM : Only Dequall is winless in the last five races, whilst Readysteadybeau is the only LTO winner and he now makes a handicap debut.

CLASS : Only Guilllemot is a class mover, stepping up one grade after a fall last time out

COURSE/DISTANCE : None of these have won here before. In fact only Readysteadybeau has been here before (2nd of 5 in a bumper last Feb) and his LTO win was over a smiliar trip to today's, as were both of To Be Sure's wins.

DAYS SINCE RUN : There should be no rustiness here, all have raced in the past 23 to 52 days

TRAINER POSITIVES : Foillan (course), Guillemot (form) and Dequall (form & course)

TRAINER NEGATIVES : Readysteadybeau (course)

JOCKEY POSITIVES : To Be Sure, Foillan and Guillemot (all course) & My Last Oscar (form)

JOCKEY NEGATIVES : Readysteadybeau (form) and Dequall (course)

On a very rudimentary +1 for a positive mention and -1 for an negative note, the ones "in credit" from the racecard would be Foillan, To Be Sure, Guillemot and My Last Oscar. That, of course, isn't the full story and it's based on a very quick overview of the card. We've a soft ground stayers' race here, so past form could hold the key and Instant Expert has all the details...

...where Readysteadybeau throws his name into the ring and the likes of Gibberwell and Guillemot look vulnerable, but in all honesty there aren't many wins there, so let's look at place form...

...which is a bit more reassuring that some of them might actually get involved, but we're not moving away from Readysteadybeau here, are we? The fact the field are just 4 from 47 at Class 4 means that maybe we should consider Class 5 form?

This isn't great for Dequall with a 1 in 8 record at a lower grade, so he's out of my considerations too. To Be Sure, on the other hand, has a win and a place from his two runs at Class 3, so he's clearly good enough for the job in hand, but will need to bounce back from a poor run last time out. His regular jockey is back in the saddle here, though and that should help his cause.

He has been held up in each of his last three outings and with likely short-priced favourite also being one who is made to wait, will this pair be left with too much to do in difficult conditions? The stats would appear to say not and based on the last 21 similar contests here...

...hold up horses have won 11 (52.4%) of them at a strike rate of almost 20.4%, whilst the three other running styles are 10 from 111 (9%) Prominent runners do tend to make the frame more often, but the winners do tend to come from those held up and if we look at how field have raced in their most recent outings...

...you'd be expecting To Be Sure to be towards the rear. The fav has also been held in his last two and with his first win (LTO) coming over a similar trip/going/class, I'd expect another hold up run from him. We've no real pacesetters, but I'd imagine the top half of that graphic will be the ones taking it on and I think that puts paid to their chances here with what I deem the best two horses being held up.

Summary

Readysteadybeau is the likely favourite and you can see why, but he wasn't mega impressive when winning five weeks ago, but both the other placers have reappeared and won off similar marks, whilst the fourth place horse has made the frame. This suggests he might well be treated and could indeed kick on and improve. I'm pretty sure he makes the frame, but a generally available price of 11/8 doesn't excite me and it's certainly not a price I'd want for an "improver"

So, who beats him? Well, hopefully, To Be Sure would be the one. He caught the eye on the racecard, scored well enough on Instant Expert and has the right pace profile for this race. He'll need a bounce back from a poor run last time around, but I'm not sure he got the best of rides and with his regular rider jumping back on board 5/1 about him regaining November's form might end up being generous.

That's my 1-2 and from a monetary perspective, I'd prefer the fav to get beat as it'll also boost the forecast/exacta payout. Those needing a third horse for the tricast/trifecta might want to look at the 6/1 Foillan or the 5/1 My Last Oscar. Neither are long enough for an E/W bet and if we're staying true to the process above, it would be My Last Oscar getting the nod.

 

 

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