Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 10/06/22

The Horses for Courses (H4C) report is Friday's free Geegeez Gold feature, whilst our 'free' races are as follows...

  • 2.10 Chepstow
  • 3.00 York
  • 4.05 York
  • 5.05 Newton Abbot
  • 6.16 Newton Abbot
  • 7.05 Fairyhouse

The H4C report does pretty much as you'd expect and shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion. As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. As with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information!

Now, my admittedly fairly stringent settings for the H4C report...

...haven't generated any qualifiers for Friday, so I'm going to revert to the free races and take a look at the 3.00 York race, as not only does it look quite open, but it's also the best (on paper, at least) of the six free races. It's actually a 10-runner, Class 2, Flat handicap for 3yo+ fillies over a straight 6f on good ground...

Candescence and Al Simmo both won last time out, but bottom weight Makarova comes here seeking a hat-trick, making her the form horse, whilst Mountain Brave, Zim Baby and International Girl were all well down the field in their most recent outings.

Plenty of these are class movers today with only Arousing and Ey Up It's Maggie having ran at Class 2 last time. Gale Force Maya and Mountain Brave both ran in Listed company and drop down a level, whilst Zim Baby, Candescence, Al Simmo, Crazy Kuck and International Girl all step up one level from a Class 3 run with in-form Makarova the big mover, having raced solely at Class 5 before now.

None of these have won here at York before, despite half of them having attempted to do so, but all bar Ey Up It's Maggie have won over 6f, but she has won 3 times at 5f. Bottom weight Makarova is the only 3yr old in the field and as a result receives a nice 8lbs weight for age allowance.

The Geegeez SR figures (licenced from Dr Peter May) suggest that Makarova, Candescence and Ey Up It's Maggie are the three to beat and my early thoughts are that this might be the case, along with Arousing, but let's look closer, starting with...

GALE FORCE MAYA
Has won each of her last three Class 2 handicaps, but hasn't really made the step forward to land a Listed race and was only 7th of 11, beaten by 10 lengths last time out. She's a pound higher than her last win, when she just hung on by a nose, so she really has no margin for error and isn't in her best form.

AROUSING
It's almost a year since she had the last of her three turf outings from which she has two wins and 0.75 length defeat as a runner-up, but all at Class 5. More recently (in March), she did win a Class 4 at Kempton, but this looks a bit tougher.

MOUNTAIN BRAVE
Won four times in 2020 and twice in 2021, but since her last win in July has finished 6th of 6, 4 of 6, 6 of 7, 7 of 7, 8 of 13 and 11th of 15 at Bath in April when beaten by 8 lengths on debut for her new yard. She is dropping down the weights, but this looks tough.

ZIM BABY
Has won just 4 of 34 so far and last won a Class 4 handicap at Windsor four starts ago in early April. That was actually her first win in fourteen attempts and now still 4lbs higher than her last win, this could be a struggle.

EY UP IT'S MAGGIE
She's probably better than her 3 from 19 record might suggest, as she's made the frame in 8 of her 16 defeats and was a decent third of 12 here at York in a Class 2 handicap over 5f last time out despite not being suited by the pace of the race.

CANDESCENCE
Won on debut almost two years ago, but didn't win again until last time out a month ago, when running on well over 5f at Hamilton to end a run of ten straight defeats. That said, she did make the frame in 8 of those 10 defeats and has finished 221 in her three starts this year, going down by just a head and then 0.75 lengths. Up 6lbs here, but clearly in good nick.

AL SIMMO
Has placed in 8 of 13 on the Flat, winning five times, but most of her best form is down at Class 5 level, although she did land a Class 3 handicap last time out. Stepping up in Class and weight, she'll need to dig deep to get involved late on here.

CRAZY LUCK
Won back to back Class 4, 6f handicaps last May/July, but has failed to land any of nine outings since, although she came close to ending that cold spell when only beaten by a neck at Windsor off a mark of 78. Up in both class and weight, this is a bigger obstacle for her.

INTERNATIONAL GIRL
Two wins and two places from nine on the Flat is creditable enough. but winning a Class 5 maiden on debut and a 5-runner Class 4 handicap by 0.75 length back in September is hardly ideal preparation for this she could struggle here.

MAKAROVA
Just five starts since making her debut less than six months ago and she finished 533 in three A/W runs over 7f earning a mark of 68. Since then she has raced in two Class 5 6f handicaps at Salisbury, winning both off marks of 68 and 75. She's now rated 82 and steps up three classes. Form says she's the one, but improvement will be needed.

Instant Expert suggests that I shouldn't be too keen on Ey Up It's Maggie...

...and her 0/7 record at this trip is a concern, as are her similar records at class and course, so I don't think I can be backing her here after all, even if she has placed in 4 of the 7 course defeats. Zim Baby doesn't score well on good ground or class and Crazy Luck has a poor record over this trip. The bottom half of the field have fared best on good ground and Candescence has made the frame in five of six efforts, winning twice.

In 20 previous good ground. 10-runner, 6f contests here, it has paid to be drawn in the first six stalls (not good for Zim Baby, Al Simmo, International Girl or Crazy Luck)...

...whilst those races have tended to suit front runners...

...which will probably suit the first four on this graphic most...

...all of which suggests that prominent/front-running Candescence & Makarova in stalls 3 and 4 might well be the ones to watch/catch here.

Summary

On a straight six, pace should be more relevant than draw. I said I couldn't back Ey Up It's Maggie because of several poor win stats, but she has made the frame in four of seven here at York, has a good draw in stall 2 and is likely to be one of the pacesetters. I still can't won't back her to win it, but I definitely think she could make the places.

For a winner, I'm back on pace/draw again and the two I noted were Candescence & Makarova and I think I'm having them on that order. Both won last time out, but the latter won at Class 3 as opposed to Class 5. The former is up 6lbs as opposed to 7lbs and she's the more experienced of the two.

So, I'm taking Candescence at 6/1 to beat the 9/2 Makarova this time, but it promises to be an interestingly tight affair. Ey Up It's Maggie looks a reasonable proposition for a place, but at 78/1, she might be too short for some of you as an E/W pick, but I'm not keen on any priced longer than that right now.

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