Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 11/02/22

A nice 9/2 winner and 32/1 forecast on Thursday topped the kitty up a little ahead of Friday, which is Horses for Courses day at Geegeez and the H4C report does exactly what you'd expect by showing the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

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My Friday H4C report looks like this (you can change your parameters, of course)...

and this is supplemented by the following free 'races of the day'...

  • 1.10 Kempton
  • 1.55 Bangor
  • 3.40 Bangor
  • 5.00 Dundalk
  • 5.30 Dundalk

And I think I'll look at my qualifiers from the H4C report today, starting with Prince Abu in the 2.10 Southwell, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 2m2½f on standard to slow tapeta...

This 5 yr old has made the frame in each of his last five starts, winning three times and also this run has taken his mark up 15lbs in total, he's still expected to put up a bold show on a track where he has finished 63121 in five handicap runs, but he's now running 2f further than ever before and he's up in class and weight following a pretty facile 5 length win over 2m at Kempton last week. Prior to that he won here over 2m½f a fortnight after his only previous run at Class 5, when only beaten by a length and a quarter over 1m6f here, but staying on well.

The stats above are backed up by Instant Expert...

...which shows his defeat as runner-up on his only previous Class 5 start and also highlights the fact that he hasn't raced this far before. Mind you only two of the field have tackled this trip before and neither look dangerous here.

At this point we'd normally look at pace and draw, but with the new tapeta track still in its infancy, we don't have enough reliable data to lean on, so it's 'gut feeling' time. I think that a 6lb penalty shouldn't enough to hold him back here. He's drawn out in 6 of 8 stalls, but that's not an issue as he's a confirmed hold-up horse, so those 1-5 will set off quicker and he'll just tuck in at the back and ride his own race hopefully unhindered and I think he's the one to beat here, ahead of Black Kalanisi and First Charge. Whether I back him or not will depend on the market later, but I suspect we'll be looking at 7/4 to 2/1 about Prince Abu.

Jenson Benson then runs in the 7.15 Chelmsford, a race that we should have more data on, with it being a 7-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard polytrack...

Five of his last six runs have been here at Chelmsford, making the frame on every occasion, finishing 13132, including 112 over course and distance having gone down by just a neck last time out. He clearly likes it here, as he has no form at all anywhere else (575853) with the '3'3 being a nine lengths 3rd of 4 at Kempton, admittedly over 1m4f a class higher than today. He has made the frame here in a higher class, when third off a mark of 63 over 1m2f here three starts ago. Back to his preferred mile and with his jockey taking 3lbs off a mark of 64, this is well within his grasp.

Instant Expert points out that it's his Class 5 bow...

...but he does have that Class 4 third place under his belt from November. Going, course and distance are all fine, as you'd expect and his place stats are even better...

...with the only potential issue being that mark of 64, but as I said, he was third at Class 4 off 63 and with today's jockey taking 3lbs off, a Class 5 race is well within his comfort zone. He's drawn slap bang in the middle of the stalls in 4 of 7 and although that's not the best draw (low is king here), plenty of horses have run well from 4 of 7...

Ideally at Chelmsford, you get out quickly and stay out in front as long as you can and the challenge generally eventually comes from the mid-division stayer and mid-div is probably where we'll find Jenson Benson. It's not the best place to run on this track, but with an IV of 1.00, it does as well as you'd expect...

Finery is the one likely to set the fractions and hope to hold on in this one and I suppose the question is whether JB can catch the mare who'll carry 10lbs less than our featured runner. I do think that Jenson Benson is the one I'd want to be on, but Finery's light weight and front-running tactics from favoured stall 1 will make it really tough/tight here with Always Fearless probably the danger to that pair. So much so that I'm going to want 7/2 or even 4/1 to get involved.

Summary

I do like both H4C runners, but I'm never interested in backing winners purely for strike rate purposes, they simply have to be at a price I'm happy with and I'd want at least 7/4 about Prince Abu and 7/2 about Jenson Benson.

At 4.10pm, I could get 7/4 about the Prince, but there was no market for the later race. I'll have to check the odds later for that to see if I can get 7/2 or better about Jenson and I also think that a small saver bet on Finery at 6's or better wouldn't be a bad play either.

 

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