Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 14/01/22

Friday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the wonderful Horses for Courses (H4C) report, which does pretty much what you'd expect and shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to the H4C report, we also have our usual selection of free races and they're going to be...

  • 1.00 Huntingdon
  • 2.20 Sedgefield
  • 3.45 Dundalk
  • 3.50 Sedgefield
  • 6.15 Dundalk

And here's how my H4C report looks...

...and with Road Warrior running in a 'free race', it makes sense to cover the 2.20 Sedgefield today, which is a soft (firmer in places) ground, 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase, where they'll go left handed for 2m3½f over 16 fences in a bid to land the £9,803 first prize...

Galileo Silver was a decent enough hurdler/bumper (placed in 5 of 7 inc 2 wins), but has come into his own over fences of late and now comes here on a hat-trick after wins by 11 lengths and 16 lengths in his last two races. Up a class and another 9lbs (up 14lbs from 2LR) makes this tougher but not impossible. He's 3 from over 2m4f and 1 from 1 here, so he's on familiar territory and his yard does well both with chasers but also with LTO winners...

The King Of May hasn't won a race since his brief 2019/20 season where he was 2 from 3 including a soft ground win here over 2m½f at this grade. His last three runs have seen him 4th of 6, last of 6 and 4th of 6 again beaten by 13, 20 and 22 lengths with a breathing op seeming to have no effect. He looks set to struggle again, even if his trainer & jockey have a good record here...

Dr Sanderson won four of his first five career starts back in 2018/19, but seemed to lose his way under high handicap marks in the 130's. That mark eventually fell to 112 last November and he duly cashed in with a win over 2m½f at Ayr and followed that up by scoring again over 2m3f off 117. He's up in class here and raised another 5lbs and bearing in mind his LTO win was only by half a length all out, he might not quite get there this time, although the runner-up front LTO won next time out off 4lbs higher.

Ashutor won back to back, soft ground, Class 3 chases at Stratford & Fontwell off marks of 125 & 132 inside 9 days last August but has failed to even make the frame in any of seven starts since, although in fairness five were at Class 2 and one was a grade 3. He's down in class (-1) and weight (-5), but he's in such poor form right now that he's best left alone.

Road Warrior is, of course, our H4C horse, his jockey is in good form as is his yard who have a good record here helped partly by the horse's 3 wins and 3 places from 8 visits. He landed a hat-trick of wins in Feb/Mar/April last year but struggled in two Wetherby runs in October. Two good December runs back here followed and he won over course and distance last time out. He's up in both class and weight, as you'd expect, but he's in great nick and likes the soft ground and should be there or thereabouts once more.

Commis D'Office got off the mark at the tenth time of asking when winning by a length over 2m½f at Southwell last march before bedding down for nine months. His reappearance didn't go so well, up 1 class and 4lbs, he was last home of six, nineteen lengths adrift at Doncaster and whilst he'd be entitled to come on for the run, his first nine races don't suggest he wins here stepping up in trip.

Hideo has only raced once in the UK and did very little bar get round at Wetherby just after Christmas. He was at the back throughout and came home last of four beaten by 43 lengths. But he's not totally new, he was a six-race maiden in France prior to his £10,000 sale and that form wouldn't be good enough here for me, especially as his yard are 1/27 in handicap chases here over the last two years!

Based on the above brief overviews, I like Galileo Silver, Dr Sanderson and Road Warrior (in card order), but I don't like the other four. Maybe Instant Expert will persuade me?

Well, Galileo would like it quicker if truth be told, although he has won on heavy, he's inexperienced at this level, but gets the trip, That 9lb rise is troublesome. The King looks better than I expected and will get the conditions well enough and is well below his last winning mark but has never raced this far. Dr Sanderson's record at this grade is lamentable at 1 win and 1 other place from 11 and a 5lb rise probably rules him out.

Ashutor is the one catching the eye based on going/class form, but it has to be repeated that those wins were largely almost a year ago and he's bang out of form right now. That said, he clearly has ability and is well weighted of 122 here. We know Road Warrior will love it here again, yes he's up 4lbs from his highest winning mark, but his form is good although he's yet to prove himself at this level. Commis D'Office isn't suited by class or the going and Hideo just doesn't seem good enough.

Chasers don't use stalls, of course, so no draw to think about but what about tactics here? Well, the pace analyser for past similar races says...

...that those setting the pace do best from both a win and place perspective by some considerable distance...

 and if we look at how this field has raced in the past...

...it's very hard to get away from the H4C horse!

Summary

Road Warrior is the H4C horse here and he's going to need a career-best effort to win here and hold off likely favourite and hat-trick seeker, Galileo Silver. Aside from the 4lb rise, Road Warrior has ticked boxes all along and a quick look at the market says he's 5/1 with Bet365. I thought he'd be closer to 10/3, so I'll take a piece of that. Galileo Silver will be prominent too, but he's even more of a weight hike to bear and runner-up is where I have him.

If you need a third horse, I think I will stick with Dr Sanderson as he fared well through the analysis and should be up in the leading quartet. Commis D'Office is the dark horse, though. He could take it on and his yard are flying right now, but I'm just not sure enough to put him forward.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.