Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 17/06/22

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion. As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

Unfortunately, my settings for the H4C report haven't generated any qualifiers for this Friday...

...but if you change the parameters, you'll see plenty to go at, whilst I have a look at the Geegeez free races of the day...

  • 3.30 Redcar
  • 4.20 Ascot
  • 4.55 Down Royal
  • 6.22 Ayr
  • 6.40 Down Royal
  • 7.45 Goodwood

...from which, I'm going to look at the 3.30 Redcar, which is a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ Claiming Stakes over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

...and should really be a four-horse contest between the three 70-rated horses and True Blue Moon whose OR is 66 and it is these four I'm going to concentrate on...

Hajjam won last time out and Eldelbar was placed on his last run. They actually raced against each other here over class/course/distance at the start of the month and were only separated by a neck and the runner-up is now a pound better off. True Blue Moon also ran on the same day, when unplaced over 6f at Hamilton, whilst Juan Les Pins has also raced inside the last three weeks, well beaten at Lingfield.

Juan Les Pins is the only one of the four yet to win over 7f and Hajjam is the only previous Redcar winner, including that C&D win just over a fortnight ago.

JUAN LES PINS Hasn't won any of his last sixteen starts and has just two wins from twenty-five career efforts. He has failed to place in any of seven Flat runs and has yet to win over 7f after fourteen attempts, but has placed five times. He goes well at Kempton on the A/W over 6f, but that's about it, although the yard is in good form right now.

ELDELBAR was only a neck behind the re-opposing Hajjam in a similar class/course/distance claimer just over a fortnight ago and is now a pound better off. A regular placer over 6/7f, but it has to be said that he too is better on the A/W. That said, a similar run to LTO puts him in with a great chance and his stablemates have been running well of late

HAJJAM loves it here at Redcar, where he is 4 from 7 over course and distance (he'd have been on my H4C report if I included non-hcps) and ran his best race in some considerable time to win here recently. He stayed on well and seemed to always have his rival held, but it has been a real long time since he strung two good runs together and he's now a pound worse off. Still in with a proper shout of winning here, but it'll be tougher than LTO, you'd imagine.

TRUE BLUE MOON is another on a long winless run after fifteen races since scoring over 6f at Hamilton eleven months ago. Has made the frame just twice in fifteen turf defeats over this 7f trip and is probably a better bet over the minimum 5f.

A pretty modest bunch, if truth be told and these are what I thought would be the better ones in this race! Between the four of them, they've already clocked up 174 races, making the frame in 63 of them (36.2%) with just 20 wins (11.5%), so I'm guessing that the place element of Instant Expert will be more illuminating than the win stats...

...and there are actually some decent place stats amongst that lot, considering they're essentially poor horses. Let's now discuss the draw and probably more importantly the pace of the race. I don't want to diminish the importance of the draw, but it's a straight seven and they're drawn 1 to 4, so even if one of them has the better line, the worst positioned can only be three stall widths away.

As it happens, stall 1 has the best of it, probably due to having the rail to keep him straight, but there's no real draw bias at play here in my opinion...

...so race tactics will come to the fore. And although predicting pace isn't an exact science, recent outings...

...suggest that True Blue Moon is likely to be the most prominent of our four, although discarded pair Ashtead and Jakacan are the probable pacemakers. Hajjam looks like he'll be dropped for a late run with Juan Les Pins & Edelbar somewhere between the two and despite his success here in the past, Hajjam's hold-up tactics aren't generally the way forward here...

Summary

I think this supposed 4-runnwer contest is a tale of two halves and I think the closely matched pairing of Eldelbar & Hajjam are better than Juan Les Pins & True Blue Moon, the latter of which probably beats the former if getting away sharp enough.

So, who wins? Well Hajjam only beat Eldelbar by a neck LTO and rarely strings two good runs together, he's also a pound worse off and his running style really shouldn't be successful over this track & trip, so I'm siding with Eldelbar.

The bookies also feel it's a tight four-horse race, so fingers crossed!

 

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.