Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 18/02/22

Friday is Horses for Courses day at Geegeez with a free report that does exactly what it says on the tin and shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. As with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

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In addition to the free H4C report, we also offer these full free racecards for Friday's racing...

  • 3.25 Fakenham
  • 3.35 Kelso
  • 3.45 Lingfield
  • 3.50 Dundalk
  • 7.15 Southwell

My Friday H4C report looks like this...

...and I think I'll take a look at those two qualifiers above, starting with Keyser Soze in the 3.15 Lingfield, a 5-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed mile on standard polytrack...

Keyser Soze has 2 wins and 2 places from 6 efforts in Lingfield A/W handicaps to date, but he's 0/1 over course and distance and only 1 from 10 over a mile throughout his career. He gets on well with today's jockey and they've finished 11042 together, but the horse isn't in the best of form, having failed to win any of his last seven since his sole 1m success at Ascot in late April last year off a mark of 87, yet he now runs off 90.

On the A/W, the story is worse, with him being winless in 14 since scoring over 7f on the Tapeta at Newcastle almost three years ago. The fact that he won off 101 that day shows how out of form he has been. He was only fourth of six back at Newcastle LTO (8f, C3) a fortnight ago, running one paced and ending up eight lengths off the pace.

He's drawn in stall 1 here and although there's not a massive draw bias here...

...the stats do suggest getting away from the rail would be a better position to hold. Speaking of positioning, he does tend to run in the back half of the field, as shown in three of his last four starts...

...but sadly, that doesn't look like it's going to do him many favours here either. So, in short, he's out of form, poorly drawn and has a poor pace profile for this contest. Not great!

*

Charlie Arthur is the second qualifier from my H4C report and he goes in the 7.45 Southwell, a 9-runner, Class5 , 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m3f on standard to slow tapeta...

Charlie Arthur won here two starts ago by a neck over 1m4f off 2lbs lower than today's mark, the same mark as when finishing third of seven over the same trip at Kempton last time out, beaten by three lengths. His A/W record is reasonable at 6 from 26, but he's actually 5 from 6 here at Southwell. He hasn't tackled this 1m3f before, but he's 3 from 3 over a mile here and has finished 411 over a mile and a half, so should have no issues getting the trip. This is only his second run on the new Tapeta surface here, but that win two starts ago was ample proof that he'll "get" it again.

Stall 1 is where he's also been berthed and albeit off limited data from the new track, that's not ideal...

The place stats, however, are decent enough and our pace/draw heatmap...

...suggests that from a low draw, he's going to need to crack on with it early doors. Fortunately for him he does like to race up with the pace, as identified by his last three outings, including leading when winning here two starts ago...

So, he clearly loves it here at Southwell, is in decent enough form and despite a poor-looking draw, might be able to negate that with a fast start. That said, if you can't make up for a bd draw in a field of less than ten runners over any distance greater than a mile, there's not much down for you anyway.

Summary

For me, Keyser Soze's run of poor form is likely to continue and I don't see him in the first two home. Shoot To Kill and Fox Power are 11/4 jt favs here and I expect them to be the first two home, probably in that order.

Charlie Arthur, however, has a great chance, I feel. He won't have it all his on way, of course but at 5/1, he's pretty attractively priced to land this. The main danger is surely the 2/1 favourite Maharashtra who is in prime form (16112 in his last five)

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