Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 21/01/22

Friday's free feature is the marvellous Horses for Courses (H4C) report, which shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion. As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

We also have a selection of free racecards each day and for Friday, they are...

  • 1.50 Ludlow
  • 2.15 Southwell
  • 3.15 Market Rasen
  • 5.15 Dundalk
  • 5.45 Dundalk

My settings for the H4C report have generated just one runner of interest...

...and he's likely to be second favourite in a 4-runner, Class 3, 7f A/W handicap. His record here at Newcastle reads 11132 with him seeming to prefer the slower nature of this track. He has won 3 times and placed in a further 3 of 9 runs over 7f on the A/W so far and although yet to land a Class 3, he is a former Class 2 winner and his record over course and distance reads 1112.

He comes here in good nick, having been a narrowly-defeated runner-up in each of his last two starts, yet gets to race off the same mark here. He's top rated by both the assessor and the Geegeez SR figures and will be looking to improve on an already impressive record held by his yard in this type of race, namely Richard Fahey + Newcastle A/W handicaps + Class 3/4 + 5/7f = 20 from 65 (30.77% SR, A/E 2.00) for a Betfair SP profit of 90.77pts at an ROI of 139.65%. These include 8 winners from 18 in fields of 6 runners or less.

There's not much to work with on draw stats in such a small field and I'd be inclined to think there's not a massive bias in a small-field straight seven furlongs, but it seems that those away from the rail fare better, which will suit Tadleel in four of four.

...with those drawn four or higher winning nine times. Tadleel likes to race prominently here at Newcastle and has done so in his two recent narrow defeats and the stats suggest that this also in a positive move for him...

So, with both draw and pace stats in his favour (albeit off a small sample size) and his excellent record here at Newcastle, especially over this trip, there's a compelling case to be made for backing Tadleel if the price is right.

Summary

Tadleel is currently the 11/4 second favourite behind the even money Diavolo, who makes a tapeta debut here and seems a tad short considering not all runners take to the surface. I was expecting 2/1 or 9/4 about Tadleel, so 11/4 is a good price and I'll gladly take that.

Very short and sweet today, but this is how quick you should be able to make a decision on each race.

Good Luck,
Chris

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