Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 22/04/22

Your fabulous Friday freebie is the Horses For Courses (H4C) report, which shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track as is, by default, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

And here's how my version of the H4C report looks for Friday...

In addition to this free report, we have (as always) a selection of fully functional racecards open to all readers and they are...

  • 2.25 Sandown
  • 4.00 Doncaster
  • 4.30 Doncaster
  • 5.00 Kilbeggan
  • 6.30 Kilbeggan

The H4C report only takes into consideration runs at the track and so should only be a starting point for a bet, it doesn't account for class, trip, going etc. so let me demonstrate my having a quick look at my two Friday "possibles", starting with Amalfi Doug, who runs in the 3.45 Perth, a 5-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase (18 fences) over a right handed three miles on good to soft ground...

...where he's certainly not the pick on form and is older than all four rivals, but he does get weight from all of them, his yard do well at Perth and he's a former course and distance winner.

His career tally stands at 7 wins and 6 places from 36 races, which makes his Perth record quite remarkable at 7 wins, 5 places from 18! All 18 runs here have been in handicaps and they include...

  • 5 wins, 6 places from 15 over fences
  • 3 wins, 4 places from 10 at Class 3
  • 3 wins, 4 places from 10 at 3m/3m0.5f

but also just...

  • 2 wins and 2 places from 8 last year
  • 0 wins, 3 places on good to soft
  • and 0 runs under today's jockey

Instant Expert will verify some of the above, but also includes his defeats elsewhere...

A mixed bag for him there and certainly nowhere near the numbers of form horse Minella Trump, but he is 3lbs lighter than his last win and he looks set to do early battle with Minella if recent pace scores are anything to go by...

...and that could be his best bet of making the frame again, based on the way other small field 3m chases have gone here in the past...

Amalfi Doug is, of course, a 3-time course and distance winner, who has pretty much no form anywhere else and last won a race in early September, finishing 3rd of 4, last of 3 and pulled in his final three runs of last season. He returned to action at Kelso 18 days ago after 149 days off track, but after being headed 2 out ended up just 7th of 8, some 33 lengths adrift and a 3lb weight drop might no be enough here to see hold on for longer from his usual front-running tactics, especially if challenged early.

*

Next up we have Brotherly Company in the 5.10 Southwell, an 8-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase (16 fences) over a left-handed 2m4½f on good (possibly slightly quicker) ground...

...where he, too, doesn't bring the best form to the table (Anightinlambourn & Steel Wave probably) and at 10 yrs of age is one of the older runners. He didn't go well last time out (7th) but has had a good rest of almost 11 weeks to get over it. A former course and distance winner, but neither trainer nor jockey seem in great recent form either and he's going be giving the field 4 to 13lbs here, although he does drop in class.

He has won 6 of 38 handicap starts to date and they include...

  • just 4/28 going left handed
  • 4/19 on good ground
  • 4/16 over fences
  • 4/15 in cheekpieces
  • 4/13 at Class 4
  • 4/12 for his current yard
  • 3/10 under today's jockey
  • 2/8 at 2m4.4f/2m5f
  • 3/5 here at Southwell
  • 2/2 here over fences
  • 1/1 over course and distance

...and Instant Expert can home in on just his handicap chase record...

...where he possibly has the second best set of figures behind the previously-mentioned Dreamsundermyfeet, both of whom are now rated just 3lbs higher than their last win. He's normally pretty consistent in his approach to races and the results he gets from them, so it's possibly no surprise that his 62 length defeat as 7th of 8 at Musselburgh last time out coincided with a change of tactics.

As you'll see below, he normally likes to either set the pace or at least be up near the leader(s), but for some reason he was held up LTO and never got going, so that run might be a false negative...

So, I'd still expect him to return to prominent/front-running tactics here, where he'll have company again from Dreamsundermyfeet amongst others, whilst the other form horse Steel Wave looks like he'll be waited with. Past similar contests suggest that both approaches work fine, but Steel Wave might have the edge.

Summary

Two horses with excellent track records, but I'd expect their fates to be quite different on Friday.

I don't really fancy Amalfi Doug at Perth and I can see it being a shootout between 15/8 fav Guy and 2nd fav Minella Trump at 9/4. of the two, i've got to say on the evidence above that I prefer the latter.

As for Brotherly Company at Southwell, I think he's more than capable of winning this, but I'm not sure that he will have enough to beat either or both of Dreamsundermyfeet or Steel Wave. The early market looks like it agrees and they have his two rivals locked at 10/3 joint favourites. If pushed for an opinion, I think Steel Wave might just prevail, but I'd certainly be interested in a 9/1 E/W bet on featured runner Brotherly Company.

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