Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 24/06/22

The Horses For Courses (H4C) report is your Friday freebie and it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion. As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. Like all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track,...but as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My H4C report for Friday looks like this...

...whilst our daily selection of free races are...

  • 2.10 Doncaster
  • 3.30 Yarmouth
  • 5.00 Curragh
  • 7.10 Newcastle
  • 8.00 Chester
  • 8.20 Newcastle

Now I'd normally be looking at two or even all three from the H4C report for you, but one of our free A/W races is a Class 1 affair, so I'm going to focus on the 7.10 Newcastle, a 10-runner, 3yo+ Fillies And Mares Group 3 event over a left handed 1m2f on standard to slow tapeta...

A decent-looking field here with 3 LTO winners (My Astra, Pearl Beach & Poptronic) and all bar two (Angel Power & Potapova) have won at least once in their last five.

Quite a few class movers here for this Group 3 contest, as Angel Power and Auria raced at Class 2 LTO, Lower Street & Pearl Beach ran at Class 3, whilst Poptronic moves up four levels!

All the field have raced in the last seven weeks with only Ad Infinitum, Auria and My Astra off for more than 23 days. Plenty of yards with good course records and some big name jockeys, but I can't help but feel that at least half of these are just here to make numbers up or grab some minor place money.

Instant Expert gives a career overview under similar conditions...

and we can narrow this down to just A/W form...

...showing that many are untested/unproven in this sphere. Pearl Beach and Lower Street are current standouts on the A/W form, but I think that overall I'm only shying away from Potapova, Moon De Vega and Poptronic as winners, although the former is a regular placer and could make the frame.

The draw stats infer that those drawn lowest fare best and those drawn centrally fare worst...

...which is better news for Lower Street, Rogue Millennium and My Astra than it is for the likes of Poptronic, Auria and Angel Power, whilst the pace stats from those races above when taken in isolation imply that leaders and mid-division horses struggle...

and when conbined with the draw data from earlier, we find that the race "sweet spot" is the low drawn prominent runner...

...so in draw order, here's the pace profile page for this race...

...which poses a bit of an issue as there's no out and out leader of the pack. Poptronic and Auria will probably set the pace and get swallowed up. Moon De Vega and Angel power look like the prominent runners here which gives them their best shot and Lower Street/Ad Infinitum will be held up.

The former of the two hold-up horses, Lower Street is grabbing my attention here, as she scored well on Instant Expert, has a good draw and hold-up horses have gone well from a low draw, so she's probably the one that intrigues me most here aside from the elephant in the room.

Summary

The elephant in the room is the short-priced fav My Astra who probably could, would and should win from any stall under any running style if the hype around her is to be believed, although she failed to win on her only other A/W outing, whereas she's 3 from 3 on turf. She's the likely winner here, but I need to see the market before making a decision.

I wrote the above this afternoon, before I had to go out to a meeting. I've returned at 6.35pm to see that My Astra is now a non-runner, throwing my plans into disarray a little. Closer analysis of Lower Street's form shows that it's all at a much lower level than this and the new short-priced fav Rogue Millenium is now the likely winner. Again, i'm not keen on backing horses at 6/4, so where do I go?

To be honest, I probably want to swerve this now, but if you can get some of the 10/1 offered by Boylesports about Moon De Vega, that could well be the savvy E/W play. She wasn't disgraced in the Oaks three weeks ago and is now down in trip/class and could well be overpriced if you can get the 10's.

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