Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 27/05/22

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. As with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

And here's how my Horses for Courses (H4C) report looks for Friday...

...with just two runners of interest, but then again my settings are quite onerous : you can choose your own for more qualifiers! Two is enough for me to be honest, because I've also got access to the following full free racecards...

  • 4.15 Chepstow
  • 5.10 Limerick
  • 5.40 Limerick
  • 7.10 Limerick
  • 8.20 Fairyhouse
  • 8.30 Pontefract

Regular readers of my columns past and present here on Geegeez will know that I'm not massively keen on Irish racing, which sadly eliminates four of the six free races today and I'm hardly bowled over by the two UK offerings, so I'm going to take a look at my two H4C report qualifiers, starting with Sharrabang who goes in the 2.20 Carlisle, an 8-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good ground...

His recent form hasn't been great and he hasn't actually won a race since landing this contest over course and distance a year ago for his second win here. He has 2 wins and 2 further places from six handicap outings here, yet has made the frame just once in 8 flat outings at other tracks whilst his other turf win came here over 7f. He last raced almost four weeks ago and was last home of seven at Hamilton over 5f off 2lbs higher than today and having been 6.5 lengths adrift, there's some improvement needed.

He's now partnered by 5lb Laura Coughlan, who has at least won a race in the past week, even if the yard is struggling. Stella Barclay's horses had (as of 3.30pm Thursday) failed to win their last 32 runs and the yard is a mere 2 from 77 so far this year.

Instant Expert highlights the horse's form under similar past conditions...

...and it's not exactly heartening, is it? That said, it doesn't quite tell the full story, as his poor 0 from 10 record at Class 6 is strange when he has two wins and a place from four runs at Class 5. He's o/6 on good ground but has placed on heavy and is 1 from 3 here on both good to soft and good to firm, so there's no reason why he couldn't win on good ground. He is, however, an interesting 6lbs lower than when winning here last year.

This was a 9-runner race, but stall 5 has been withdrawn, so our boy effectively runs from stall 7 of 8 and past races here have favoured a low to mid draw...

...and those races have tended to suit leaders best, although hold-up horses have held their own...

Sharrabang's natural style is to race prominently and whilst that's second best for making the frame, it hasn't gone too well for providing winners, but in combination with the draw, highly drawn prominent runners haven't done too badly with only high drawn leaders and low drawn hold-horses faring better. Perhaps his chances will improve if he kicks on in a race that lacks any real pace aside from possibly Mrs Bagerran outside him in stall 8.

*

And then we have Junoesque in the 3.20 Brighton, a 4-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left handed 1m4f on good (firmer in places) ground...

This 8 yr old mare has been in good form of late, winning both turf starts this season. Both were here at Brighton, firstly over 1m2f at this Class 6, before stepping up in both class and trip to win a Class 5 contest over today's course and distance. She's up 4lbs for that win, but does drop back down in class.

She has 8 wins and 2 places from 15 here at Brighton, of course but that LTO win was her first crack at 1m4f here with most of her runs coming over 1m2f. Her yard have good figures here too and although they're a little skewed by her own success, the yard isn't entirely reliant upon her. In fact without Juno's runs here, the yard have still had 22 handicap winners from 122 runners (18% SR, A/E 1.16) since 2014 and whilst jockey Darragh Keenan is 2 from 3 on Juno here, he's also 13 from 80 (16.25% SR, A/E 1.27) on other handicappers at Brighton.

Instant Expert has the lowdown on how Junoesque has fared in similar races previously...

The green blocks speak for themselves, so let's address the distance. One win from five doesn't fit in with the rest of her data and it turns out she's actually 1 from 2 at 1m4f with three defeats at a half furlong shorter, so that's taken care of that. Small fields over this course and distance have tended to favour those drawn lower, but when you've only four horses side by side, the draw shouldn't have too much effect over a mile and a half, but the data is what it is and the pace of the race is probably the thing to focus and with it being Brighton, you want to be up with the pace...

The need for speed here is unsurprising, as no doubt is this heatmap...

...we know that Juno is drawn in stall 1, so if she's a leading type, she'd be "well in" here and in those two runs here this season where she won...

Summary

Two runners with excellent course records but in vastly differing form right now. Sharrabang won this race last year , but has been poor since and I'm not convinced that even a return to favoured conditions is enough right now. He could, of course, go well without winning and that would make him of interest next time out, but not this time for me. Somewhat boringly, I see the 5/4 fav Colombe leading the 9/4 second fav Sir Gregory home, but all is not lost as I wouldn't be too surprised if one (or even both) of Good Listener and/or Mrs Bagerran at odds of 25/1 & 18/1 respectively outran those odds for a place.

Junoesque, on the other hand, poses a different problem for me. I don't like backing shorties and especially not odds on shots, but at 10/11 Juno might actually represent some value. She's only up 4lbs for an eleven length success over course and distance at a higher grade and I fully expect her to go in again. Once more, I'd expect the danger to come from the next in the market, who this time would be the 13/8 Torbellino and of the other two runners, I prefer the 16/1 Against The Odds to overturn the 7/1 Colonial Love.

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