Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 29/04/22

Friday's free feature is the Horses for Courses (H4C) report, which as you'd expect shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion and as well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting.

As with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

My own personal settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded just one runner of interest for Friday...

...but I've also got the following 'free' races to aim at...

  • 1.15 Newmarket
  • 2.05 Goodwood
  • 2.40 Goodwood
  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 8.30 Newcastle

...and after careful consideration, I think I'm going to look at the 2.40 Goodwood, which looks like a fairly open 10-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Flat handicap over a straight 5f on good ground...

Some good form figures on display here, but Stone of Destiny, Live In The Moment and Lihou are winless in their last five and with the latter now stepping up two classes from finishing 8th of 10 at Wolverhampton recently, I'm ready to discard him immediately.

He's not the only one stepping in class, mind, as half the field ran at Class 3 LTO and it's easier to name the ones who aren't stepping up ie Raasel, Stone of Destiny, Live In The Moment and Fine Wine.

Three of the field (Mokaatil, Tone The Barone & Clarendon House) are LTO winners with the last pair coming here on a hat-trick and the latter horse being one of two returning from a lengthy break. Clarendon House hasn't been seen for nine months since back to back wins inside nine months last July, whilst Atalanta's Boy last raced on October when well beaten here over 6f. He did win here 9also over 6f0 two starts ago, but he had a pretty poor season and that form allied to the layoff and a first crack at 5f rules Atalanta's Boy out for me.

Of the eight I'm now down to, all have won over 5f and Raasel has won over course and distance, so that's a tick for him! All have raced in the last nine weeks with five of them having been seen this month. Not much to write home about in terms of trainer or jockey form, so let's assess race suitability via Instant Expert...

...where I'm drawn positively to four of the top five on the graphic, but I've concerns about Stone of Destiny's 2 from 26 record at Class 2. Further inspection shows just 4 places in the 24 defeats and that's just not good enough for my liking, so he's out of my reckoning at this point. Technically Mokaatil should join him, but as an LTO winner, I'm prepared to cut him some slack for now. Other than that, I'm not too perturbed by the numbers, although it should be noted that Raasel, Tone The Barone and Live In The Moment are now 8, 9 and 10lbs respectively higher in the ratings than their last wins.

The three I've eliminated so far are drawn in stalls 3, 6 and 9, so the seven still in contention are spread out across the full width of the stalls and past similar contests seem to have favoured those drawn centrally ie 3 to 7...

...which could be good news for Mokaatil, Fine Wine & Clarendon House and if we stick with those three for a moment, past outings suggest that the latter pair are likely to set the pace here today...

...but will have company from Lucky Ava and maybe some others, which means we could have a proper burn-up on ground likely to be the quicker side of good after the recent dry weather. If however, we refer back to the sample of races we used for the draw analysis, those contests haven't always gone well for those setting the pace and sitting just off in a prominent position or even mid-division has been a better option, opening the door back up for Raasel, Live In The Moment and Mokaatil, hence the openness of this contest...

If we combine the pace and draw stats into a heat map...

...we almost get a feeling that the higher you're drawn, the further back in the field you want to be and if put our runners into draw order and show where we think they'll race, then the bold black line is pretty much where we'd want to be (hopefully, this makes sense in print!)

So Raasel sits pretty much on the line for an ideal pace/draw match-up and he's only drawn one stall away from my preferred 3 to 7 area. Lucky Ava also sits close to the line, but she hasn't won on turf, races at Class 2 for the first time and is probably the 40/1 outsider for a reason, so I'll take her out of the equation, along with Live In The Moment, who is furthest away from my black line and despite having lost each of his last eight races is still too high in the weights for my liking.

Summary

I've quickly gone through the card and tools and have narrowed the ten runners down to five. And if truth be told, any of the five is good enough to win this, but the one I like best is Raasel. He won here over course and distance last September and then rattled off four more wins in as many runs in just six weeks before bedding down for the winter. He was only beaten by 2.5 lengths at Musselburgh a fortnight ago despite a 164-day lay-off and that run will have prepared ideally for this task, so at 6/1 (Bet365) I'm with Raasel.

I really liked the way Clarendon House progressed last season, but he's likely to need a run after 200+ days off track, plus he's up in weight and class, so I'll swerve him for now. Tone The Barone, on the other hand, won twice in March and now switched back to turf off 8lbs lower than his most recent A/W win  six weeks ago, he could be the biggest threat to Raasel.

Which in a roundabout way says that I'm having either Mokaatil or Fine Wine as the third horse in any windmill-tilting trifecta and I think the former's LTO win swings it for me. Highly unlikely to come in, but I'm sure a Rassel/Tone The Barone/Mokaatil tricast/trifecta will pay handsomely :  who knows?

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