Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 29/09/23

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

Your first 30 days for just £1

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.05 Gowran Park
  • 2.35 Haydock
  • 3.00 Newmarket
  • 5.30 Newcastle
  • 5.35 Gowran Park
  • 7.00 Newcastle

We've had almost a constant deluge of rain in the North West for some while now, which could make life tricky for some runners, so I'm interested in the Haydock card. The free race on the card is for 2yo maiden fillies, which is almost as far removed from anything I like as you could possibly get, but I'm 'staying local' for the last on the card, the 5.25 Haydock. It's a competitive-looking (at first glance, anyway) 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed mile on soft/heavy ground...

Bottom weight Beccara Rose was the only one of the group to win last time out, but Pearl Eye was a runner-up and has been in the frame in 10 of his 11 starts over the last year, winning five times. Rhythm n Rock is the only one without a win in six, having made the frame just once in that run after finishing 3113 in his first four outings.

Only Shahbaz and LTO winner Beccara Rose ran at this grade last time around, as Harswell Duke, Conservationist and the in-form Pearl Eye all step up from Class 4 whilst the top two on the card, Liamarty Dreams and Rhythm n Rock both drop down from Class 2, as does the oldest runner (8yo) Young Fire.

Young Fire is however a former course and distance winner, as are the three year olds Conservationist and Pearl Eye. Liamarty Dreams has also won here at Haydock, scoring over 7f sixteen months ago, whilst Rhythm n Rock, Harswell Duke and Beccara Rose have all won over a mile on other tracks with the latter getting off the mark over this trip at Kempton three weeks ago, but she does look better on the A/W.

Young Fire was actually in action as recently as Tuesday when beaten by 4.5 lengths on soft ground at a higher grade at Nottingham, so he's back out quickly in a field where all runners have seen some action in the last eight weeks (most in the last four!).

Beccara Rose's LTO (and sole) win came on the all-weather, so that won't appear on the flat stats provided by Instant Expert...

...where the in-form Pearl Eye looks like the standard-bearer. Harswell Duke wouldn't mind even more rain to drop, but his Class 3 win record isn't the best. Elsewhere, there are question marks over Young Fire's 3 from 26 at the trip and he'd probably prefer his races to be a little shorter, although he has made the frame in 4 of those 22 defeats (18.2%) as shown below...

...where again Pearl Eye looks the best suited. Young Fire has been consistent on soft ground and loves it here at Haydock, where he has finished 1114 on soft, whilst Shahbaz has been knocking on the door for a Class 3 win and those last two mentioned seem to be in the 'best' part of the draw, as our draw analyser suggests that the winners of similar races have come from stalls 2 to 5

...with those drawn 1 to 5 making the places most often. That's not ideal for the in-form eyecatcher Pearl Eye, but he is only one berth outside that corridor of runners. The pace data for those 30-odd races above point to those making the running faring best of all...

...which again isn't the best news for Pearl Eye, as recent evidence suggests he'll be nearer the back of the field with Rhythm n Rock and Young Fire, whilst the likes of Liamarty Dreams and Conservationist set the tempo...

All isn't lost, though, as when we combine pace & draw together, only Shahbaz looks like being inconvenienced and even then, he's pretty close to being in the green...

Summary

The pace/draw heat map suggests that any of these can win from any stall and if it's that open/competitive, I want to be with Pearl Eye. He's in great form (1321311 over this trip) and has won on both soft and heavy. He's currently 7/2 and that's probably a fair assessment of his chances.

Had this race been elsewhere on better ground, I'd probably not be interested in Young Fire, but he's a different animal on the soft ground at Haydock and at 9/1 with Bet365, I like him as an E/W possible. As for another placer, you could make a claim for most of them if truth be told, but only Harswell Duke is at an E/W price. He's 18/1 right now and on his form from October '22 to April this year, he'd be a cracking bet, but hasn't looked the same animal since taking the summer off. Perhaps it'll all click back into place?

 

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.