Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Monday 06/06/22

Monday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is full access to the intuitive PACE tab for all races, including of course, the following 'free' races of the day...

  • 1.18 Lingfield
  • 2.20 Gowran Park
  • 2.35 Listowel
  • 4.55 Listowel
  • 5.15 Gowran Park

Now, I compile these daily pieces as though I was a free subscriber, using the free GOLD offerings each day. We all have certain types of races we swerve and in my case, Irish racing is generally on that list, so I'd now essentially be down to one race to look, but that doesn't mean the tools won't work!

I'm now going to attempt to show you even if you've just one low-grade race to assess, you can still make use of the Geegeez GOLD toolkit, which I'll now do with the 1.18 Lingfield, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo A/W handicap over a left handed 1m4f...

OK, so it's a Class 6 handicap for 3 yr olds, which generally means limited amounts of experience with little success. Appier carries top weight after winning his last two, including one over today's trip and with only Rochebrune of the rest having won a race anywhere, the top weight is likely to be a warm favourite and I suspect Rochebrune will attract money, but let's see if we can find weaknesses in the pair or perhaps an E/W pick.

All have raced in the past two to seven weeks, Nazimova and Urneyman make handicap debuts with the former dropping in class to do so whilst both Martha Edlin and Kharshuf make a second handicap appearance with the former again dropping in class. Appier is, of course, the sole 1m4f winner in the field and he's rated 2lbs+ better than the rest by the handicapper.

APPIER
Didn't really show much in three starts over 7f/1m at Classes 4/5, but a drop to class 6 and a step up to 1m2f and then 1m4f has seen him win his last two quite comfortably. He's up 6lbs for his last win, but the booking of 5lb claimer and rising talent Harry Davies helps to negate much of that and he surely the one to beat/watch here.

ROCHEBRUNE
The only other winner in the field landed a 1m novice event at Kempton in November and has run well in two 1m2f handicaps at Bath in the last five weeks.

NAZIMOVA
Hasn't made the frame in any of her three starts in novice events over 7f/1m so far, but her breeding suggests that this step up in trip might suit. Throw in a drop in class and her yard's ability to get handicap debutants to run well and she might well get involved here.

MARTHA EDLIN
Unplaced in all four starts to date at trips from 1m to 1m2f, she was beaten by almost ten lengths on handicap debut LTO. She's down in class here, but up in trip and the booking of Kieran Shoemark to take the ride is interesting, because he has been in good from of late and in a race full of poor horses, a decent jockey could be the difference.

KLIP KLOPP
Finished mid-division in a Wolverhampton handicap over an extended mile recently and was beaten by less than six lengths. He has been eased a further 2lbs for this one and now races on a track where trainer Gary Moore has a good record.

KANGEROO JACK
His handicap form reads last of ten, seventh of nine and eighth of ten and has been beaten by at least eight lengths each time. Trainer and jockey work well together, but this might be a tough ask.

KHARSHUF
Probably better than the bare 5th of 7 result on handicap debut might suggest. She was beaten by less than five lengths on quick ground despite missing the break and having to play catch-up all race and never quite getting there. She seems to handle the step up in trip well enough and with a better start here, her in-form rider might make more of the opportunity

URNEYMAN
Last of five, seventh of nine and twelfth of thirteen in three starts doesn't inspire confidence, especially when he has yet to finish with 30 lengths of the winner. One unsuccessful run here and another over this trip are a worry too.

Appier has won two from five and Rocheburne has one win and one place from seven, but he other half dozen runners have failed to make the frame in 26 combined outings, I'm going to look at Instant Expert from a negative perspective and see if it rules any out who've raced under today's conditions and failed as opposed to my usual way of seeing who is best suited!

The lack of data isn't a surprise from such an inexperienced field, but what I'm getting initially is that Martha Edlin has struggled on the A/W and Klip Klopp/Kangeroo Jack have already had three cracks at basement level racing without joy. Rocheburne is also 0/3 at Class 6, but sometimes we have to dig a little deeper and see that he's a former Class 5 winner and I still think he looks the biggest danger to Appier.

In terms of pace and draw in similar contests here, those drawn centrally have had the best of it , whilst the further back a horse has raced, the greater has been the chance of success and both are shown below...

We know the draw from the racecards, but we need to look at the pace tab, especially as it's our daily free feature. The tab shows how a horse normally approaches a race and in this scenario, we're looking for low numbers, as 1= held-up, 2 = mid-division, 3 = prominent and 4 = led. As some of these only have three starts to date, we'll compare pace stats from the last three outings of the whole field...

Now, this isn't set in stone, of course, but likely fav Appier seems to have the perfect approach whilst in a race lacking any genuine pace, Nazimova might feel the need to take it on.

Summary

It's really hard to get away from an Appier/Rocheburne 1-2, so I'm going to stop trying. Appier should win comfortably, but it's not a race I want to invest too much money into, so at a best price of just 7/10, I'll leave her alone, aside from forecasts/tricasts perhaps. Rocheburne is the only other with any kind of form and the 13/2 on offer from 888Sport might be a very reasonable E/W offering.

Elsewhere for a third horse for the tricasts or a longer E/W punt, it's more a case of gut feeling and I think that if Kharshuf makes a better start here, jockey Georgia Dobie might just get her close to the action late on and at 20/1 might be a nice E/W punt for small money.

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