Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Monday 07/02/22

Pace analysis must be of the most overlooked yet very important tools in the bettors armoury. To have a good idea of how a race will be shaped before it happens is a powerful thing to have. So much so that we'll give EVERY reader (irrespective of subscription status) full access to the Pace tab for ALL races each Sunday & Monday, including of course, Monday's 'free' races, which are...

  • 2.45 Carlisle
  • 3.20 Carlisle
  • 7.30 Wolverhampton
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

As ever, Monday racing is pretty poor stuff and for a race analysis perspective, it's a bit of a 'tallest dwarf' scenario that says the last of the 'free' races is the 'best' to cover here. The fact that the 8.30 Wolverhampton is the 11-runner second division of a Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap tells its own story. The trip is a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta and here's the card...

Now, I've just got home from a weekend in London with the Geegeez Team (Matt, Sam, Dave and myself), but had some hours to pass on the train, so I had a quick look at Monday's racing and when it came to this race, my initial thoughts were that if you added Scarborough Castle and Capricious to the Geegeez SR 1-2-3 of International Law, Broken Rifle and Plansina, then you'd probably have the first three in there somewhere.

The Sedberghian, It's a Love Thing, Dundory and Here At Night haven't really had a decent run in some time and I'd be dismissing their chances straight away. On past A/W form under similar circumstances via Instant Expert...

...I'd want to overlook the claims of Broken Rifle and James Park Woods for their line of red. Capricious and Scarborough Castle score best and Central City is interesting at 13lbs below his last winning mark. Plansina is steady across the board, whilst International Law looks the most vulnerable of my favoured five still under consideration as we look at the Draw Stats.

My five vs the field have been allocated stalls 3, 5, 6, 9 and 11 and the win/place stats from the last 50+ similar contests show...

...that none of my five actually have the best of the draw, but from a win perspective, they'd rank 11, 5, 6, 9 and 3 whilst for places it would be 6, 11, 3, 5 and 9. So from that, you'd probably deduce 11 (International Law) had the best draw of my five and stall 9 the worst, which is strange as they're so close together.

From a pace perspective, we're ideally looking for horses who won't be held up...

...as they've done really badly here of late. Mid-div/prominent is the best place to be, but leaders have still won more than their fair share of races and these stats suggest that it might be more difficult for the likes of Plansina and possibly Scarborough Castle here, based on recent outings...

If I'm being fair/lenient, Scarborough Castle does have to mid-div runs in the last three, so he can stay, but I'm removing Steady Eddie Plansina from the equation now.

Summary

I've very quickly (an intentional haste : nobody should be spending long on this type of race!) got myself down to four runners...

  • Capricious, an in-form 4 yr old filly arriving here seeking a hat-trick after back to back 1.5 length, Class 6 hcp wins over 1m½f here at Wolverhampton. She's up another 4lbs (that's +7lbs in two starts) and it'll be interesting to see if that pulls her back.
  • Central City, a veteran of 62 races already (decent enough 6/37 on the A/W) but no win in 11 since scoring at Chelmsford almost a year ago. I made reference to him being below his last winning mark, but he has been below 74 for five races (six today) now, so that might not be as relevant as we thought it might. Signs of a return to form when third last time out at Newcastle, but more required here.
  • International Law has 5 wins and 9 places from 33 Wolverhampton runs and his last win of any kind was here over course and distance off a mark of 60 last March. Sadly since then, he has failed to land any of fourteen contests, but ran really well off 56 last time out going down by just half a length at Newcastle. A similar run here off the same mark put him right in contention.
  • Scarborough Castle has 3 wins and 3 places from 12 on the A/W and returned in october from a three-month break looking like a different horse and has finished 11412, starting with back to back course and distance wins here. He was just held off by a neck over 1m4f here last time out and now droops back in trip. Major contender, but up 2lbs in defeat.

Of the four, Central City looks the least likely to win, whereas I feel it might well be tight between International Law & Scarborough Castle. I've not got much between them, but I think I want them in that order with Capricious filling the frame.

As is sometimes the case, the bookies don't agree with me and I can get 7/1 about International Law, who I thought might be a 4/1 chance, so I'm taking the 7's. Scarborough Castle looks a bit short with Bet365's 11/4, but mega short at the 15/8 in some places, whilst Capricious is a solid and maybe slightly generous 5/1, but not long enough for an E/W bet.

If you did want an E/W possible, then Central City re-enters the equation and with Skybet paying 4 places, 16/1 looks very interesting for those that way inclined.

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