Racing Insights, Monday 11/03/24
Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's so important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...
- 2.10 Taunton
- 2.30 Plumpton
- 3.40 Taunton
- 8.30 Wolverhampton
Of those four raced, the highest-rated also has the widest pace spread, so let's have a look at the 3.40 Taunton, a 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 3m5f (after a 132 yd rail movement) on soft ground...
No LTO winners in the field, but both Enrilo and Broken Halo were runners-up ans the latter is the only runner in the field with a win in his last seven outings, having won six and seven races ago. Bottom-weight Jacamar is the only one to have completed all of his last seven starts, with Enrilo being the least successful at finishing, failing to do so four times from seven.
The top two in the weights, De Rasher Counter and Enrilo are both dropping down a class here and Laskalin wears cheekpieces for the first time. All seven have been seen in the last 25 to 58 days, so fitness shouldn't be an issue (although stamina might) and the field are 0 from 3 at this track, whilst Cyclops' 2017 Boxing Day win in the Lincolnshire National over 3m3.6f at Market Rasen is the closest any of the field have come to winning over today's trip.
Instant Expert looks like this today...
...with the experienced Cyclop having a reasonable return on the going/class. but has struggled to win more often over 3mf to 3m6f, as have the others who've tried to! Cyclop is our only previous soft ground winners, but Broken Halo and Jacamar are both more reliable at Class 3 from a win perspective. The overall poor recent form of the field is highlighted by none of the field being higher than their last winning mark, especially Jacamar and De Rasher Counter who are now rated some 13 and 14 pounds lower than their last wins. The place stats from those races above give us a little bit more to work with, thankfully...
...where again Cyclop's record looks decent, but most of that is historical rather than recent form.
Today's feature is pace and if we consult our pace analyser, we are advised that in 5 to 9-runner, 3m to 3m6f chases on good to soft/soft ground here at Taunton that runners willing to set the pace have the best records from both a win and place perspective
...and because we track/log how all horses race here in the UK, we can make a reasoned assumption as to how they might run here. We allocate a leader 4pts, a prominent runner gets 3pts, it's 2 pts for mid-division runners and 1pt for a hold-up horse and this is how the field have approached their last few outings...
...suggesting that First Lord de Cuet & Enrilo will be the pace options, whilst Broken Halo will need to pass all six rivals later on if he wants to win.
Summary
Despite the conditions and the distance of the race, it's said that pace should win the race here and the two pace options are First Lord de Cuet and Enrilo. The former has yet to win any of 11 starts over fences, but has been a runner-up six times and as his weight drops, he might be ready to win. The latter ran really well to finish second of twelve over 3m7½f in the Edinburgh National recently, even if he was beaten by some 21 lengths. He's down in both trip and class here and could go well again, even if Harry Cobden has chosen to ride stable-mate Broken Halo. That said, 5lb claimer Angus Cheleda has ridden him in three of his last four starts.
Cobden is aboard Broken Halo, who won both the Royal Artillery & Grand Military last year and was runner-up in this year's Grand Military (last time out), so he's clearly no mug but is unproven beyond 3m½f and hasn't a great record on soft ground, so I'm not sold on him completely. De Rasher Counter looks like being third rank from a pace perspective, but carrying top weight after a run of thirteen defeats stretching back to November 2019 leaves me cold. Laskalin is interesting even if the data I've shown above gives him little chance, but he has made the frame in 3 of 9 at this level and has first-time cheekpieces. He's interesting because he's trained by Venetia Williams and when you think of soft-ground staying chasers, she's one of the first trainers you think of.
So, Laskalin probably isn't a winner here, but he'll certainly relish the conditions. We've discussed Cyclop quite a bit above during the Instant Expert analysis, so it's fair to say that he should get these conditions, but might well have to come from way off the pace. Whether he can do that here is debatable, but if not too far detached might well get close to or even make the frame. Last, but not least, we have Jacamar, who might not be too far ahead of Laskalin early doors and doesn't really like soft ground. he did actually win as recently as 1st Feb '23, but has lost ten straight since then, including a pretty heavy defeat last time out.
Late-evening (9.15pm) odds look like this...
...from which I think I prefer First Lord de Cuet and Enrilo to battle it out up top. Of the three priced at what I'd deem E/W money, Cyclop would be the one that I'd be more interested in. 18/1 in a seven-horse race where the bookies are paying three places looks quite generous and you might make a small profit there.
Hu sorry fir been useless but cannot find the four selections you put up today thanks can You help