Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Monday 13/06/2022

Assessing the pace of a race is something many bettors sadly overlook, but we feel that it's such an important weapon to haver in your armoury that we make the PACE tab on our racecards freely available to ALL readers for EVERY race on Sundays & Mondays, including of course, Monday's 'free' races, which are...

  • 5.40 Windsor
  • 6.20 Nottingham
  • 8.00 Kilbeggan
  • 8.20 Nottingham

Fairly low grade stuff there, but I do like watching the sprints, so let's have a look at the 6.20 Nottingham, a 10-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ flat handicap (for horses yet to win in 2022) over a straight 5f on good (firmer in places, but watering) ground...

As PACE is the featured racetab today, I think we'll start there by looking at how these horses have approached their last four outings...

...where 4 = led, 3 = raced prominently, 2 = took a mid-division position and 1 = held-up. Based on recent runs, Rhythm, Grandfather Tom, Melody King and Van Gerwen look the likeliest pace setters, whilst the likes of Temple Bruer, Duke of Firenze, Electric Love and The Princes Poet will probably be waited with. We can then compare this data with past 5f affairs here at Nottingham as follows...

...where it looks like those setting the pace would be the ones to be on. It's a straight 5 furlongs here, so other than one stall having the rail to keep them straight, there really shouldn't be a massive draw bias, but let's just check those 26 races from above...

and there really isn't a great deal in it, but if we then combine pace/draw together...

...we see that mid-drawn leaders fare much better than any other pace/draw make-up, so let's quickly look back at who we thought might set the pace and where they're drawn. Rhythm, Grandfather Tom, Melody King and Van Gerwen look the likeliest pace setters and they're drawn in stalls 9, 3, 8 and 7 respectively, so we're not quite there with any of them as you can see here...

...but Grandfather Tom & Van Gerwen look well positioned. As for form, well, we know none of these has won this year, but more longterm...

...Instant Expert tells us that a few have been around the block and the likes of Nibras Again and Duke of Firenze catch the eye for the wrong reasons. No horse above screams "back me" on those stats but Nibras Again and Duke of Firenze are essentially asking to be avoided. Full lines of red after enough attempts to get things right is always a turn-off for me, so this is now an 8-runner race for me. Grandfather Tom has a consistent line of amber (I'm not too worried about field sizes) and runs off 11lbs lower than his last win, whilst fellow pacesetters Rhythm and Melody King have good numbers, as do Electric Love and The Princes Poet and I think I want to narrow the field down to this quintet...

ELECTRIC LOVE
Has two wins and two places from seven on the Flat, having won twice inside a week last June/July. She was a decent 5th of 12, just 2.5 lengths off the pace on her seasonal reappearance at Epsom in April after 229 days off, but wasn't quite as good on paper LTO when 4th of 8 here over course and distance in early May. Closer inspection of the result says that it might not have been a disaster, as the winner has since scored at Class 2 and the runner-up has won at Class 4 and this filly drops in class here.

THE PRINCES POET
Ran well when returning from a 194-day absence to finish 2nd of 10 at Windsor in April, but hasn't shone in two starts since, finishing 10th of 11 beaten by 9 lengths at Windsor recently. He's better than that, though and dropping two classes and 1 furlong should show him in a much better light.

MELODY KING
Had a good run of form in late summer last year, but has struggled in a couple of sofr ground 5f contests and then made no impression over 6f at Thirsk recently. The facts are that he wants 5f on good ground and will get it here for the first time in a good while. Probably not one to hang your hat on, but should run his own race.

RHYTHM
I'm not sure what to make of this one. Her results aren't good, but there's no consistency to her races, She races over 5, 6 and 7 furlongs on a variety of going conditions and that might be because her handler are still trying to find what works best for her. During that time, she has two wins and a place from thirteenn starts and I'm not confident of her improving that record here.

GRANDFATHER TOM
Is an 8-time winner (20.5% SR) over this trip and ran a decent race here last time out, when third of seven beaten by just a length here over course and distance three weeks ago. He's now down a pound and drops in class, so a similar run puts him right in the mix.

Summary

Of the five I've narrowed the field to, I think that Electric Love is the best horse, but a poor pace/draw setup makes her vulnerable here and she might not have the legs to catch and pass Grandfather Tom. If you just wanted to give you the names of a couple to look at here, it would be these two.

If I had to stick my neck out, I'd say that Electric Love and Grandfather Tom are my 1-2 here and they're priced at 7/2 and 9/2 respectively with Hill (the first to show) at 3.45pm Sunday.

As for a placer or trifecta candidate, The Princes Poet might be the one and at 12's might be a nice E/W punt.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.