Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Monday 20/06/22

Pace analysis must be of the most overlooked yet very important tools in the bettors armoury. To have a good idea of how a race will be shaped before it happens is a powerful thing to have. So much so that we'll give EVERY reader (irrespective of subscription status) full access to the Pace tab for ALL races each Sunday & Monday, including of course, Monday's 'free' races, which are...

  • 1.35 Chepstow
  • 5.15 Ballinrobe
  • 7.25 Wolverhampton
  • 8.20 Ballinrobe

So, let's head to the West Midlands for a look at the 7.25 Wolverhampton, a six-runner, Class 5, 3yo A/W  handicap over a left handed 5f on standard tapeta...

No LTO winners on show here, but Miss Belladonna as a runner-up recently and all bar Dusky Prince have at least one win in their visible form line. Top weight Coolmeen Royal drops down a class for a second tilt at handicaps and Crush And Run also drops a grade, whilst the only filly in the race, Miss Belladonna is up in class.

All six have won at least once over this 5f trip with both Bang On The Bell and Coolmeen Royal having done it here at Wolverhampton. All bar King of Speed have been seen in the last four weeks, but his 230 day lay off might make him a little rusty on his second handicap appearance.

COOLMEEN ROYAL
Only five starts so far, but in two visits here, has a win and a runner-up finish over course and distance. Toiled over 6f at Lingfield lately after a 20 week break but should go better for having the run and the drop in trip should suit.

Jockey in decent form, especially for this yard...

CRUSH AND RUN
Placed in 3 of 4 on the A/W including a 5f win at Lingfield, ran really well at Class 3 on turf at York just over a month ago, finishing 4th of 15 off a pound higher than today. A similar effort here could be difficult to beat.

KING OF SPEED
Just 3rd of 6 (3L) and 6th of 9 (4L) from his two prior A/W outings, He did, however, win a Class 4 Novice at Redcar, but was well beaten in last year's Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Ascot. Not seen for almost eight months and will probably need the run.

Jockey riding well of late, though...

BANG ON THE BELL
Form figures at Wolverhampton are 121, having won and placed over 6f in March/May respectively prior to a course and distance success a month ago. Disappointing at Windsor latest run, but a return to A/W racing is expected to help.

DUSKY PRINCE
Won on debut (Brighton maiden over 5½f) fourteen months ago, but is 0 from 13 since and he has made the frame just once in six A/W starts and might struggle again here, even if trainer and jockey have been in good nick recently...

MISS BELLADONNA
Has finished 3412 in her four A/W starts this year, the latter being over 5f at Chelmsford and the other three here over this course and distance, so she'll 'get' the race conditions at least. Sadly, 2lbs out of the handicap which makes life tougher, even if she is bottom weight.

The field has a combined place strike rate of just 35.2% (19 from 54), including just 13% winners (7 from 54), so i suspect we might glean more from the place element of Instant Expert...

...than we do from the wins...

Now whilst they don't point me in the exact direction of the winner, they do add to the previous doubts I had about King Of Speed, Dusky Prince and Miss Belladonna suggesting the race might spilt into two halves.

The draw, whilst not having a huge bias in similar past contests, would tend to favour those drawn highest...

...which looks better for Crush And Run than it does for Coolmeen Royal, whilst the pace analysis of those races above has shown that those in the more advance racing positions are the most successful...

and when we combine pace and draw together...

OK, so we know the draw, but do we know how they'll run?

No, but by logging how they've raced previously gives us a good indication of how they might approach this race and in their last four outings, this is how they've raced...

...and there's plenty of pace on with four of them having an average profile of 3.00 (prominent running) or higher and we can drop those runners on to that heat map...

...again not doing Miss Belladonna any favours.

Summary

Based on the racecard and write-ups, Instant Expert and pace/draw, the winner here surely has to be Crush And Run. I'm not surprised at all that he's the favourite but 6/4 or even 13/8 looks far too short as I was expecting around the 9/4 mark or 2's at worst. I think he's the one most likely, but I'm not massively keen on the price.

Next best would be Bang On the Bell and I think he'll try to set the tempo and win the race from the front. Mid-drawn leaders fare best of all according to out heatmap and his average score of 3 is a little misleading as the '1' came from his only turf outing since October. He's a solid '4' on the A/W and I expect him to lead and if he can open up some daylight, that could create a nice upset at 4/1 and I think I'll have a nibble at that.

 

 

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