Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Monday 23rd May 2022

Chris will be back on Racing Insights duty for Tuesday’s racing but for now, one more effort from me. Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are:

2.10 Wolverhampton
3.50 Leicester
4.45 Huntingdon
6.00 Roscommon
6.40 Windsor

There is plenty of form available in the 2.10 at Wolverhampton and this appeals as a good puzzle to attempt to solve. 

This race will be run over the extended 9f trip and there is already an early non runner leaving nine set to go to post.

As far as potential pace biases go here, it seems as though front runners, prominent racers and those that race in mid division are all fairly equally matched. There is though, a slight underperformance from the most patiently ridden runners.

There doesn’t seem to be a massive draw bias either, perhaps the most interesting point from the above heat map is that if you tend to lead, it seems the higher you are drawn the better. The heat map also highlights that the very best draw and pace combination looks to be racing prominently from a middle draw.

All of this information is useless if we don’t cross reference it with the pace map for this contest.

There are several runners here that can be on the speed, or like to be prominent, but very little in the way of consistent front runners. Only one of these has made the running on at least two of their last three starts and that is Fly The Nest. Three of them did make the running last time out though so the whole pace picture looks slightly uncertain. 

The fact that none of these are habitual front runners suggests that we won’t see an overly strong gallop and the most likely scenario might be that the race is run at an even gallop with several of these happy to slot in behind whichever one of these goes on.

There certainly aren’t many that can be ruled out based on draw or pace unfortunately which means this could well come down almost exclusively to form.

The clear form chance according to the betting appears to be Lenny’s Spirit who is a warm favourite early on. Having looked a bit of a bridesmaid for a while he won a shade cosily last time out here over course and distance, a win that has cost him a 3lb rise in the handicap. There wasn’t a single future winner in behind that day and 65 days has passed since which makes it slightly strange he hasn’t been seen since. Being held up from the widest draw might not be ideal either, especially if this isn’t a well run race meaning he’s respected but opposed at the prices. 

Celestial Point enjoyed a fruitful campaign last year, winning twice and finishing 2nd and 3rd on his other two starts. That run saw him rise a stone in the weights and he’s either not been in the same form, or hasn’t been well enough handicapped, on two runs so far this season. However, closer inspection of his latest run suggests it was better than it initially looked.

Since that race the winner and runner up have both win since, as have the 6th (twice) and the 7th. That looks a pretty hot race for the grade and Celestial Point can probably be marked up significantly. He’s never really shone in three runs on the all weather despite being by Pivotal who is an above average all weather sire. He’s often faced inadequate tests though on artificial surfaces so is worth another chance.

Copake is a regular here and has finished 1st and 3rd in two runs over course and distance when running without headgear. He’s closely matched with City Escape on the last time out form and City Escape is a frustrating runner, often running with promise and then failing to back it up. This explains why she’s a 27 race maiden.

Plansina has done the majority of her winning here and at Bath but she has no secrets from the handicapper. Her last six wins have all come off marks between 52 and 58 so off 56 she has to have sort of chance. She found only one too good on her penultimate start here off this same mark but that wasn’t a great race and she could be likely to run well in defeat again here.

City Wanderer is higher in the handicap than his last five defeats over course and distance so makes limited appeal whilst Defilade, Fly The Nest and Hy Eales haven’t been running near well enough to take this.

Summary

I’m very much inclined to give Celestial Point another chance to prove himself on artificial surfaces having run much better than it looked last time out. He finds himself in a weak race here and could be well placed just off the lead in this. He’s also lightly enough raced to still be improving and this emphasis slightly more on speed than some recent runs might also suit. 

Lenny’s Spirit is respected but looks too short on the balance of form and better value alternatives might be Copake, City Escape and Plansina who only appeal as place options rather than win options.

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