Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Monday 24/01/22

The PACE tab on the racecards allows you to gain a quick insight into how the tactics of a race might unfold and we make this full available to ALL readers for ALL races EVERY Sunday & Monday, including of course, Monday's full free racecards, as follows...

  • 2.00 Southwell
  • 3.00 Southwell
  • 7.30 Wolverhampton

And the first of that trio, the 2.00 Southwell, is the best on paper, so let's consider this 6-runner, Class 2, A/W handicap over a straight five furlongs. The top prize is £10,800 and it will end up going home with one of these...

Mondammej had a very busy but quite successful 2021, winning 5 and placing in 5 more of 18 starts, including four wins from his last six, all at this Class 2 level. he has raced just once so far in 2022, going down by just a length and a quarter at Newcastle three weeks ago. He's also a 5-time winner over this minimum trip.

Fernando Rah won here over course and distance in December (two starts ago) before going down by a length and a quarter at Kempton over 6f last time out. His record over 5f is better than that over 6f, so a drop back to this distance should help today off a mark that is unchanged, but still 8lbs higher than his win here just over six weeks ago. Notable that his trainer & jockey have worked well over the past year...

Caroline Dale was third behind Mondammej, beaten by a neck twice when she was last seen back in October. She's had a wind op since then and now reopposes on 7lbs better terms. That would normally be more than enough to overturn the defeat, but she might well need the run and Mondammej has certainly kicked on since. That said, we do have another successful Trainer/Jockey combo here...

Mulzim has made the frame in half of his 18 A/W starts, winning seven of them, an excellent return, but he hasn't won any of his last six and has been last of 14, last of 6 and 11th of 12 in his last three. He has six wins and a place from 11 here over course and distance, but all on the old Fibresand surface (his jockey also has a good record here) and a combination of form, tapeta and a step up in class raise doubts here.

Copinet also steps up in class for her course/class debut, but she is 21134614 on the A/W with a win and two places from three on Tapeta elsewhere. All her racing has been at Class 3 or lower so far without a win above C4 and after going down by three lengths at Chelmsford just over a week ago, improvement is needed here, although yet again we've a good T/J combo...

No Speed Limit makes a UK and Taepta debut after 36 races in Ireland, where he won just twice. That's hardly reassuring, but he has finished 221322232 in nine Dundalk Polytrack starts over the last three months, so he's certainly consistent. Sadly for him, he's running from 6lbs out of the handicap and will probably find this a struggle. That said, do keep an eye out for him re-appearing at Class 3 off a mid-70's mark and he might well look a different horse.

At this point, I'd say that I'd leaning towards Mondammej and Fernando Rah and away from Mulzim and No Speed Limit...

...although Mulzim's recent decline in results/form hasn't been bad enough to ruin his 12-month percentages on Instant Expert...

...and technically off 4lbs lower than his last win, he should be dangerous. We should remember, though, that those numbers are tempered by him only beating one rival in his last three outings. My meaning towards Mondammej and Fernando Rah is reaffirmed by the above, but i'm very aware that weight rises of 5lbs and 8lbs respectively may come in to play. That said, only Mulzim is well treated on past form.

Southwell switched to Tapeta in December 2021 and we've had just twenty races (17 x hcps, but none at Class 2) over today's trip on the new surface with today's runner Fernando Rah wining the first of them, so the draw and pace stats will have to be taken on trust as the bigger picture forms over time. What we do know from looking at data from the tapeta at Newcastle & Wolverhampton over this 5f trip is that leaders fare best and the further back a horse races, the worse the chances of success become and based on their last couple of runs...

...my favoured two are likely to be up with the pace tucked in behind Caroline Dale and the two I'm not keen on will have some work to do, but not quite as much as Copinet. As for the draw, I'm not convinced there's a massive advantage to be had anywhere over a straight five furlongs with a small field, other than the horse in stall 1 (Mondammej) will have the rail to guide and keep him straight. That said, the main pace appears to be with the filly drawn widest of the six.

Summary

I liked Mondammej and Fernando Rah from the moment I wrote the brief reusmés and nothing has really suggested they won't be the first two home, assuming Caroline Dale doesn't get off to a flyer and nick the race from the front. She's definitely the main danger to my pair in my opinion and the bookies have agreed by having her as 7/2 third fav.

They've also gone with my preferred pair, but they've got them less closely matched than I have. I don't have much between them to be honest, yet the early market has Fernando Rah as 15/8 fav ahead of Mondammej at 11/4. I'd have probably gone 9/4 the pair and on that basis, I'd prefer Mondammej to prevail here.

 

 

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